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Can Mansfield’s draw-hardened resilience survive Turf Moor’s cup intensity and Burnley’s punch from wide? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Burnley’s defensive record is a concern, having kept only 3 clean sheets in 29 matches while conceding 1.90 goals per game. Mansfield arrive with a high shot volume (11.51 per game) and have scored 50 goals this season, suggesting they can exploit Burnley’s defensive vulnerabilities at Turf Moor.
Read Rationale ▾
Burnley’s superior quality and home advantage at Turf Moor should see them through, but Mansfield’s draw-heavy form and defensive organisation (10 clean sheets) suggest a tight contest. A 2-1 scoreline reflects Burnley’s scoring capability and their consistent tendency to concede goals against lower-league opposition.
Readers’ Tip
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Turf Moor hosts a fourth-round tie as Parker’s Burnley chase control and Clough’s Mansfield look to frustrate and counter.
Burnley vs Mansfield — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with implied probabilities and sample bet365 odds.
Burnley’s superior league standing provides a significant implied advantage in the 1X2 market over the draw-heavy Mansfield Town visitors.
Burnley’s recent cup average of 5.00 goals per game contrasts with Mansfield’s stubborn streak of stalemates in League One.
Probabilities favour a home win with single-goal margins, reflecting Mansfield’s ability to remain competitive against higher-tier opposition.
Burnley have just 3 clean sheets this season, while Mansfield’s high average of 11.51 shots per game keeps the ‘Yes’ outcome relevant.
Match Preview
Turf Moor has an FA Cup edge to it at 15:00 — a Premier League side searching for rhythm, and a League One outfit arriving with nothing to lose and plenty of patience. Scott Parker’s Burnley have lurched through a streak of mixed results, but that 3-2 win at Crystal Palace brings a jolt of belief after a bruising 0-2 home loss to West Ham.
Nigel Clough’s Mansfield turn up draw-hardened and organised. Four stalemates in their last six tells you exactly what they’re built for: control the chaos, slow the game, and nick moments when opponents switch off.
This tie screams contrast. Burnley want width, long shots and direct thrust. Mansfield want structure, set-piece strength, and a counterpunch when the door creaks open.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Match
Mansfield arrive with a higher volume of attempts, while Burnley focus on directness and clinical moments.
Burnley’s approach focuses on direct thrust and width to create scoring opportunities.
Mansfield consistently test goalkeepers, averaging nearly two more shots per game than their opponents.
Defensive Shield: Clean Sheets Recorded
Mansfield have shown significantly more defensive discipline across their campaign compared to the hosts.
Keeping opponents out has been a major struggle for Parker’s side this season.
Mansfield’s defensive structure has been key to their competitive nature in League One.
Key Statistics
- Cup Goals, Loud Message: Burnley smashed 5-1 in their last FA Cup outing and average 5.00 goals in their most recent FA Cup matches. Turf Moor expects fireworks.
- Mansfield’s Stubborn Streak: Mansfield have drawn four of their last six across all leagues and are unbeaten in five of their last six FA Cup games — hard to shift, hard to break.
- Shot Volume vs Finish: Mansfield average 11.51 shots per game and Burnley 9.55, yet Burnley have just 3 clean sheets in 29 while Mansfield have 10 in 37 — chances will come, taking them is the trick.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Burnley absences
- C. Roberts (D) — Achilles tendon problems
- M. Ndayishimiye (M) — ankle injury
- M. Amdouni (F) — cruciate ligament tear (out until 01.04.2026)
- Josh Cullen (M) — cruciate ligament tear (out until 01.09.2026)
Mansfield absences
None listed.
Burnley probable XI (5-4-1)
Martin Dúbravka; Kyle Walker, Maxime Estève, Hjalmar Ekdal, Quilindschy Hartman; Josh Laurent, Florentino, Loum Tchaouna, Jaidon Anthony; Lyle Foster
Mansfield probable XI (4-2-3-1)
Liam Roberts; Kyle Knoyle, Adedeji Oshilaja, Frazer Blake-Tracy, Aaron Lewis; Jamie McDonnell, Nathan Moriah-Welsh; Will Evans, Tyler Roberts, Rhys Oates
Lineup Implications
Burnley losing Josh Cullen hurts the midfield balance — it asks others to play cleaner under pressure. Mansfield arriving without listed absences suits Clough’s template: compact base, disciplined distances, and quick decisions when the counter is on.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Burnley | Mansfield |
|---|---|---|
| Played games | 29 | 37 |
| Goals scored | 36 | 50 |
| Goals per game | 1.24 | 1.35 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.24 |
| Shots per game | 9.55 | 11.51 |
| Possession | 43% | 45% |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | 73% |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 10 |
| Corners per game | 3.45 | 4.95 |
| Fouls per game | 9.66 | 11.41 |
Tactical Battle
Burnley’s plan: width, long shots, get it moving early
Parker’s Burnley lean into directness: long balls, width, and a preference for attacking down the right. That fits the personnel and it fits the need — Burnley’s possession is a problem area, so they can’t afford to get trapped in slow build-up.
Look for Jaidon Anthony (six league goals) to be a constant trigger: drive wide, shoot, or whip it across the box. Burnley also rate highly for direct free kicks, and with Mansfield’s block likely sat deep, dead-ball quality becomes a shortcut to the net.
The concern is exposure. Burnley are weak against counters, through balls, and long shots — and their 1.90 goals conceded per game across 29 matches is an alarm. If they push the wing-backs high and lose the second ball, this turns into a track meet quickly.
Mansfield’s plan: frustrate, set traps, then break
Clough’s Mansfield are built for this stagecraft. They’re very strong defending set pieces, and they can finish chances when they do arrive. Their style screams “patient threat”: play with width, take long shots, attempt through balls, and keep the aggression measured.
Key names fit the shape. Jamie McDonnell (rating 7.23, and 4.1 aerials won) gives them bite and legs in the middle. Rhys Oates and Will Evans both have six goals, so there’s end product if the transition lands.
Key Zones
- Burnley must stretch Mansfield’s shape and win second balls around the box.
- Mansfield will happily accept pressure if it’s predictable — but the moment Burnley get sloppy, Mansfield’s through-ball weakness becomes a threat for Burnley, not Mansfield.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set-piece tug-of-war: Burnley are strong on direct free kicks, but Mansfield are very strong at defending set pieces. One delivery could settle the mood either way.
- Second balls after long shots: Both teams like hitting from range. Whoever attacks the rebound with more conviction gets the best chances.
- Discipline in dangerous areas: Mansfield are weak at avoiding fouls in risky zones, and Burnley can punish from dead balls when the chance is there.
- Early goal timing: Burnley’s first goal average sits around 47’, Mansfield’s around 46’ — this may simmer before it snaps.
What Could Go Wrong?
Burnley can look sharp going forward and still wobble at the back — one counter, one through ball, one mistake, and Turf Moor goes tense. Mansfield, meanwhile, live on tight margins; if they don’t convert their shot volume into real quality, they risk spending the afternoon defending and leaving themselves with nothing but “nearly.”
📊 Market Explainer
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
This market requires both sides to find the net at least once during the 90 minutes. It is a popular choice for matches involving defensively vulnerable favourites and high-shot-volume underdogs.
Pros: Remains active until the final whistle. Cons: Highly dependent on finishing clinicality.
Correct Score
A high-variance market where you must predict the exact final scoreline. It offers higher prices to reflect the difficulty of landing the precise outcome.
Pros: High reward potential. Cons: Very narrow margin for error; a single late goal can ruin the bet.
🎯 Both Teams to Score – Rationale
Burnley enter this FA Cup tie with a defensive record that suggests Mansfield Town will have plenty of opportunities to find the net. Across 29 matches, the hosts have managed only 3 clean sheets and concede at an average of 1.90 goals per game. While Burnley possess superior individual quality, their tactical exposure to counters and through balls aligns perfectly with Mansfield’s strengths.
Mansfield Town are not a side that travels just to defend; they average 11.51 shots per game and have already scored 50 goals this season. With key attacking threats like Rhys Oates and Will Evans, the visitors have the end product required to punish a Burnley backline that has consistently wobbled against varied opposition. Mansfield’s tendency to play with width and take long shots will test a Burnley defence that is missing the midfield shield of Josh Cullen.
Tactical Indicators:
- Burnley concede 1.90 goals per game on average.
- Mansfield average 11.51 shots per match, highlighting their offensive intent.
- Burnley have failed to keep a clean sheet in 89% of their fixtures this season.
Risk Factor: Mansfield may adopt an ultra-conservative approach if they fall behind early, focusing on damage limitation.
⚔️ Key Tactical Mismatch
Key Tactical Mismatch
Rated highly for direct free kicks; a major threat against sides that commit fouls in dangerous zones.
Mansfield struggle to avoid fouls in risky areas, potentially giving Burnley multiple sights of goal.
📊 Burnley 2-1 Mansfield Town – Rationale
Predicting a 2-1 scoreline balances Burnley’s home advantage and Premier League quality against Mansfield’s proven resilience. Burnley average 1.24 goals per game and have shown they can strike through Jaidon Anthony and Lyle Foster. However, their inability to keep clean sheets suggests Mansfield will land a blow of their own, especially given the visitors’ high corner count and shooting volume.
Mansfield are “draw-hardened,” having tied four of their last six matches, which indicates they are comfortable staying in games and frustrating opponents. A 2-1 outcome allows for Burnley’s expected dominance while acknowledging that Mansfield possess the structure to avoid a heavy defeat. Burnley’s history of high-scoring FA Cup games (averaging 5.00 in recent outings) supports the idea of multiple goals, but Mansfield’s 10 clean sheets this season suggest they won’t collapse entirely.
Risk Factor: A very early Burnley goal could force Mansfield to open up, potentially leading to a wider margin.
❓ Interactive Q&A
⊕ What does “Both Teams to Score” mean?
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) is a bet where you win if both the home and away teams score at least one goal each. It does not matter who wins the match or what the final score is, as long as both sides find the net.
⊕ Why is Burnley 2-1 a plausible scoreline?
This scoreline accounts for Burnley’s attacking quality and Mansfield’s resilience. Burnley score regularly at home but concede 1.90 goals per game, making a narrow 2-1 win a logical statistical middle ground.
⊕ How does the “Correct Score” market work?
The Correct Score market requires you to predict the exact final result of the game after 90 minutes. If the game ends 2-0 and you bet on 2-1, the bet is lost, as it requires total precision.
⊕ Can Mansfield Town cause an upset?
Yes, Mansfield are “draw-hardened” and unbeaten in 5 of their last 6 FA Cup games. Their high shot volume and defensive organisation make them very competitive underdogs.
⊕ What is the significance of Burnley missing Josh Cullen?
Missing Cullen weakens Burnley’s midfield balance and defensive shield. This increases the likelihood of Mansfield creating chances through the middle of the pitch.
⊕ What are the risks of a Correct Score bet?
The primary risk is a late goal or a missed chance that changes the scoreline. Correct Score bets are highly volatile because they depend on the exact number of goals scored by both sides.
⊕ Why is Mansfield’s shot volume important?
Mansfield average 11.51 shots per game, which is higher than Burnley’s 9.55. This suggests that the League One side will be proactive and test the Burnley keeper frequently.
⊕ What happens if the match is a draw after 90 minutes?
Standard Match Result and Correct Score bets are settled on the result after 90 minutes (plus injury time). If the match goes to extra time, those bets are typically settled as a draw.
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