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Can Nice’s attacking intent finally break down Montpellier’s perfect defensive record in the Coupe de France? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale▾
Montpellier have been defensively perfect in the Coupe de France, recording three consecutive clean sheets. Nice average nearly two goals conceded per match this season but have recently focused on stability. Given Montpellier’s disciplined block and cup focus on control, a low-scoring, cagey encounter is highly probable.
Read Rationale▾
Nice possess superior attacking routes through Jonathan Clauss and Sofiane Diop. While Montpellier’s defence is robust, the pressure of playing at the Allianz Riviera may eventually tell. A single-goal margin reflects Nice’s struggle to finish chances and Montpellier’s ability to keep matches tight and controlled throughout.
Readers’ Tip
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Nice haven’t been able to hide from a difficult season, but a last-16 cup tie at the Allianz Riviera offers a chance for a necessary statement.
Nice vs Montpellier — Market Snapshot
Explore key markets and illustrative probabilities based on the Allianz Riviera clash.
Nice’s home advantage makes them 4/7 favourites despite defensive injuries, while Montpellier’s perfect cup form offers a 3/1 outsider angle.
Montpellier have conceded just 0.88 goals per match, supporting the likelihood of a tight encounter under 2.5 goals.
Nice’s shot volume and Montpellier’s clean-sheet streak suggest a marginal 1-0 outcome is a plausible tactical result.
Montpellier have recorded 9 clean sheets this season compared to Nice’s 2, reflecting a stark difference in defensive stability.
Match Preview
Nice don’t get to hide from this one. A last-16 cup tie at the Allianz Riviera, under the lights, against a lower-division opponent who arrive with a proper defensive swagger. Claude Puel’s side have had a messy season, but there’s a heartbeat again — that 2-2 fightback against Brest wasn’t pretty, it was necessary.
Montpellier, led by Zoumana Camara, bring a different mood: momentum in the Coupe de France, clean sheets for fun, and the look of a team that knows how to suffer without cracking. Nice have their own unfinished business after last season’s round-of-16 exit, and this is the sort of fixture that either resets the story… or writes a new nightmare. Kick-off is at 19:30.
Defensive Stability: Season Clean Sheets
A comparison of how effectively each side has shut down opponents throughout their respective campaigns.
With multiple injuries at the back, maintaining structure has been a primary concern for the home side.
The visitors have relied on defensive organisation to keep games tight, resulting in a much higher clean sheet ratio.
Defensive Resilience: Goals Conceded per Game
Analysing the average defensive leakiness of both teams across all competitions.
Nice have struggled to protect their goal, averaging nearly two concessions every time they take the pitch.
Montpellier’s defensive efficiency is notable, conceding less than one goal per match on average this term.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Nice Absences
- Mohamed Abdel Monem (fitness)
- M. Bombito (lower leg fracture)
- Y. Ndayishimiye (cruciate ligament injury)
- M. Bard (adductor pain)
Montpellier Absences
No injuries/suspensions listed.
Probable Nice Lineup
Diouf; Clauss, Bah, Peprah, Abdi; Vanhoutte, Samed; Cho, Sanson, Diop; Wahi
Probable Montpellier Lineup
Ngapandouetnbu; Tchato, Laporte, Mouanga, Mincarelli; Omeragic, Da Silva; Pays, Chennahi, Issoufou; Mendy
Section Summary
- Nice look patched up at the back. With multiple defenders out, the defensive balance matters even more because they’re already vulnerable to set pieces and counters.
- Montpellier’s likely shape screams discipline: a guarded midfield base, then runners off it. If they score first, they’ve shown they can shut the door.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Nice | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored (all games) | 37 (32 games) | 31 (24 games) |
| Goals conceded (all games) | 59 (32 games) | 21 (24 games) |
| Shots per game | 10.63 | 11.00 |
| Possession | 46% | 53% |
| Pass accuracy | 83% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 9 |
| Corners (per game) | 4.56 | 5.17 |
| Yellow cards (per game) | 1.94 | 2.00 |
Nice are not short of intent — the shot volume is respectable — but the concession rate is loud. Montpellier don’t just “keep games close”; they keep them under control, with clean sheets and a tighter defensive profile. That sets up a match where Nice have to force the issue without gifting the one moment Montpellier crave.
Tactical Battle
Nice: sharp routes, messy endings
Puel’s Nice want to break lines and get moving quickly. Through balls are a major weapon, and the right side looks like the main runway: Jonathan Clauss brings the width and delivery (4 assists), while Sofiane Diop is the main scorer (7 league goals). The goal is simple: pull Montpellier’s block out of shape, then punch through.
But the warning is just as clear. Nice struggle with finishing chances and protecting the lead, and their defensive weaknesses read like a list of “don’t do this in a cup tie”: set pieces, counters, long shots, and defending wide attacks. If Nice over-commit early, they can turn their own stadium into a nervous place.
Montpellier: defend first, then choose your moments
Montpellier’s cup run has been all about control without fuss: three straight wins and three straight clean sheets. That’s not glamorous — it’s ruthless. Expect them to keep distances tight, force Nice wide, and make crosses a low-percentage grind rather than a constant danger.
When they do attack, it’s likely to be direct and purposeful. Alexandre Mendy (8 goals) is the obvious focal point, and the supporting cast can play off second balls and loose touches — exactly the type of moments Nice have struggled to manage, especially with defensive absences.
Where it tilts: set pieces and transition defending
Nice are strong in counter-attacks, but they’re also very weak defending them. That’s the knife-edge. If this becomes end-to-end, it stops suiting the home side very quickly. Montpellier don’t need long spells of possession; they need one clean break, one set piece, one long shot that forces panic.
Nice’s best route is controlled aggression: win territory, keep Montpellier pinned, and avoid the cheap fouls and silly giveaways that feed a defensive underdog’s belief.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set-piece tension: Nice are very weak defending set pieces. Against a side keeping cup clean sheets, a dead-ball moment could be massive.
- Clauss as the key: Jonathan Clauss (4 assists, 7.09 rating) can drag Montpellier’s shape wide — but it also leaves space behind if Nice lose the ball.
- Goalkeeper spotlight: Yehvann Diouf has been busy this season, with Nice averaging 3.28 goalkeeper saves per game — that tells you how often defensive structure breaks.
- Discipline under stress: Montpellier average 2.00 yellows per game. If they start chasing shadows, their compact block can open up.
What could go wrong?
For Nice, it’s the classic cup spiral: dominate territory, miss big moments, then concede on a set piece or counter while the crowd turns edgy. For Montpellier, it’s falling too deep for too long — invite repeated pressure, rack up corners, and one scruffy finish finally breaks that clean-sheet streak.
📊 Market Explainer
Over/Under Goals (Pick 1)
This market involves predicting whether the total number of goals in a match will be above or below a specific figure (e.g., 2.5). It is popular for its simplicity, as it doesn’t require choosing a winner. Cautious approaches often favour the “Under” when defensive sides meet.
Correct Score (Pick 2)
A higher-risk market where you must predict the exact final scoreline. While the probability is lower than match result markets, it offers higher potential returns. Late goals or changes in game-state significantly impact the volatility of this market.
🎯 Under 2.5 Goals Rationale
Analysing the defensive profiles of both sides makes a low-scoring encounter at the Allianz Riviera the primary expectation. Montpellier arrive with a flawless defensive record in the Coupe de France, having won three consecutive matches without conceding a single goal. Their overall defensive stability is underlined by a concession rate of just 0.88 goals per match across the season, supported by nine clean sheets in 24 fixtures. They excel at maintaining tight distances and forcing opponents into low-percentage wide areas.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators:
- Montpellier have kept three straight clean sheets in the Coupe de France.
- The visitors concede an average of only 0.88 goals per match.
- Nice have struggled with finishing chances throughout the current campaign.
Nice, while showing attacking intent, often suffer from “messy endings” in the final third. Although they average respectable shot volumes, their inability to consistently convert pressure into multiple goals aligns with Montpellier’s ability to “suffer without cracking.” Puel’s side may control territory, but breaching a disciplined, deep-lying block remains a major challenge.
Risk Factor: Nice’s defensive absences could lead to unforced errors or vulnerabilities on set pieces that break the cagey pattern.
🎯 Nice 1-0 Montpellier Rationale
A 1-0 victory for the home side represents the most plausible outcome when balancing Nice’s superior individual quality against Montpellier’s defensive focus. Nice possess sharp routes to goal through Jonathan Clauss and Sofiane Diop, who are capable of creating the single moment of brilliance needed to break a stalemate. Clauss, in particular, serves as a vital wide outlet with four assists, providing the delivery that can eventually bypass Montpellier’s compact shape.
However, Nice’s broader defensive fragility and lack of clinical finishing suggest they are unlikely to run away with the game. They average 1.84 goals conceded per match, meaning they must maintain focus to preserve a slender lead. Montpellier will likely fall deep and invite pressure, which often results in a scruffy finish or a single set-piece deciding the tie rather than a high-scoring affair.
Risk Factor: Falling too deep can invite repeated pressure, and a single mistake from a patched-up Nice defence could result in an equaliser.
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