bet365
BetMGM
William Hill
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Can Lorient’s hot streak at Le Moustoir blunt Paris FC’s possession game in this Coupe de France shootout? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
To use the Live Streaming service you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo location and live streaming rules apply.
Read Rationale ▾
Lorient enter this tie in sensational form, remaining unbeaten in their last 11 matches. Their home record is particularly formidable, with no defeats in their last eight at Le Moustoir. While Paris FC control possession, Lorient’s superior clinical edge and momentum should see them progress in 90 minutes.
Read Rationale ▾
Paris FC’s habit of staying in matches and their high shot volume suggests they can find the net, especially given Lorient’s occasional defensive lapses. However, the hosts’ cup pedigree—scoring 10 in two games—makes a 2-1 victory a plausible outcome in a tight but open encounter.
Readers’ Tip
Vote your pick — quick & anonymous
Terms & Conditions (tap to view)
Stade Yves Allainmat – Le Moustoir is ready for a proper cup night. Lorient come in flying — unbeaten for months, sharp at home, and already ruthless in this season’s Coupe de France.
Lorient vs Paris FC — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on match analysis.
Lorient’s 11-match unbeaten run and home strength make them the primary candidates in the 1X2 market against Paris FC’s possession style.
Lorient have netted 10 times in two cup games, while both sides average over 11 shots per game in league action.
Lorient average 1.68 goals per game lately; Paris FC are strong on the counter, making a competitive 2-1 or 1-1 outcome plausible.
Paris FC average 53.9% possession compared to Lorient’s 43.0%, setting up a classic battle of control versus clinical counter-strikes.
Match Overview
Paris FC arrive with a different kind of threat: more possession, slicker passing, and a habit of staying in games even when the script flips. It’s the Coupe de France round of 16, so the stakes are brutally simple: win and move on, lose and it’s done. The mood feels tilted towards the hosts, who have made a habit of surviving and then surging late in matches at home. But Paris FC have enough ball control and counter-punch to make this a proper test. Kick-off is at 19:30, and nobody at Le Moustoir will want a slow start.
Quick Hits
- Red-hot Run: Lorient haven’t lost since a 3–0 defeat at Lens in early November, going 11 matches unbeaten (W7, D4) and rolling into this tie with serious momentum.
- Cup Punch: Lorient have already scored 10 goals in two Coupe de France matches this season, including a 7–0 rout of AS Le Gosier and a 3–1 win over Hauts Lyonnais.
- Same Volume, Different Control: Both sides average 11.6 shots per game in Ligue 1, but Paris FC play with far more of the ball (53.9% possession to Lorient’s 43.0%).
Tactical Control: Average Possession
Paris FC prefer long spells on the ball, while Lorient operate with a more direct, lower-possession approach despite their clinical scoring.
Lorient are comfortable conceding territory and hitting on the break with wide pressure.
The visitors look to dominate the tempo through high pass accuracy and central control.
Scoring Punch: Goals Per Match
A comparison of offensive output across all competitions over the last 22 fixtures.
Boosted by 10 goals in two cup rounds, the hosts enter in rampant goal-scoring form.
A lower strike rate but consistency in shots suggests they remain a threat throughout.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Lorient
Injuries / absences:
- T. Aiyegun (hamstring injury)
- A. Faye (hamstring injury)
- S. Soumano (knee injury)
- A. Ebong Avon (ankle injury)
Probable XI:
Kamara; Meite, Talbi, Igor Silva; Le Bris, Cadiou, Abergel, Kouassi; Makengo, Pagis; Dieng
Line-up implication: Those missing attackers strip Lorient of extra legs and alternative profiles in the final third, so the burden falls harder on Pablo Pagis and Bamba Dieng to turn good positions into goals.
Paris FC
Probable XI:
Trapp; Gory, Mbow, Kolodziejczak, Otavio, Sangui; Kebbal, Lopez, Camara, Simon; Krasso
Line-up implication: This looks built for control and quick switches — Ilan Kebbal and Maxime Lopez can keep the ball moving, while Moses Simon adds direct running when the pass-first approach needs a jolt.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Lorient | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| Ligue 1 goals (20 apps) | 27 | 26 |
| Shots per game (Ligue 1) | 11.6 | 11.6 |
| Possession (Ligue 1) | 43.0% | 53.9% |
| Pass accuracy (Ligue 1) | 84.1% | 86.6% |
| Goals per game (last 22) | 1.68 | 1.36 |
| Conceded per game | 1.45 | 1.55 |
Tactical Battle
Lorient’s width vs Paris FC’s structure
Lorient’s identity screams width. They like to attack down the right, play with width, and get shots off — and they’ve got the form to back it up, winning five of the last six and staying unbeaten at home across their last eight. That home resilience is a big deal here, because Paris FC won’t panic if the first wave doesn’t land. The key is whether Lorient can turn wide progress into clean chances. They’re strong at creating chances and individual skill, but the red flag is finishing. If Lorient build well and then snatch, Paris FC get exactly what they want: a match they can slow down and control with possession.
Paris FC’s possession and tactical risk
Paris FC are a possession side, and they can be neat: 53.9% possession and 86.6% pass accuracy in Ligue 1. That often means long spells where the opponent has to run. But it comes with risk — and their weaknesses read like an invitation to a cup ambush: defending through balls, set pieces, and individual errors are all soft points. That’s where Lorient’s game can bite. Lorient’s strengths include creating scoring chances and individual skill, plus a very strong threat from direct free kicks. If Paris FC foul in the wrong areas — another listed weakness — Le Moustoir will smell blood.
Key Player Duel: Kebbal vs Lorient’s midfield screen
Paris FC’s attacking output is led by Ilan Kebbal: 8 goals and 4 assists with a standout 7.22 rating. If he gets freedom between the lines, Paris FC’s possession becomes purposeful instead of sterile. Lorient’s response likely runs through Laurent Abergel, who has 19 appearances and a team-high 6 in the aggression column. He’ll try to disrupt the rhythm, force play wide, and keep Kebbal from threading passes into Jean-Philippe Krasso. But there’s a catch: Lorient are listed as very weak at defending against skilful players. If that shows up here, the midfield screen has to be aggressive without getting dragged out of shape. Paris FC will happily recycle the ball until the gap appears.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set-piece discipline: Lorient’s threat from direct free kicks is a headline feature, and Paris FC are vulnerable to fouling in dangerous areas and defending set pieces.
- Through-ball danger: Paris FC are very weak defending through balls and avoiding individual errors. If Lorient time runs off Pagis or Dieng, one lapse can flip the tie.
- Wide pressure: Lorient’s wide focus meets Paris FC’s right-sided tendencies. Whoever wins the wing battles can decide where the game is played.
- Game management late on: Lorient are unbeaten in their last eight at home, and Paris FC are strong at protecting a lead and countering. The final phase could be frantic or suffocating depending on who’s ahead.
What Could Go Wrong?
For Lorient, the danger is simple: build good situations, then waste them. Their finishing is the soft spot, and a cup tie punishes waste. For Paris FC, control can turn into complacency — a cheap error, a set-piece concession, or one perfectly timed through ball can undo long spells of tidy possession. In a one-off at Le Moustoir, the team that stays sharp in the messy moments usually survives.
📊 Betting Market Analysis
Match Result (1X2)
The most straightforward market where you predict the outcome after 90 minutes: a Home win (1), a Draw (X), or an Away win (2). Pros: High liquidity and clear outcomes. Cons: Cup games can be volatile if matches go to extra time, which is not covered by the 90-minute market.
Correct Score
A high-reward market where you must predict the exact final scoreline. Pros: Offers much higher odds than standard markets. Cons: Extremely low margin for error; a single late goal can ruin the selection entirely.
🎯 Tactical Rationale: Lorient to Win
Lorient’s current trajectory is the primary driver for this selection. Unbeaten in 11 matches across all competitions, they have turned Stade Yves Allainmat – Le Moustoir into a fortress, avoiding defeat in their last eight home fixtures. While Paris FC will likely dominate the ball with their 53.9% average possession, Lorient have proven they do not need territory to be effective, averaging more goals per game (1.68) than their visitors (1.36).
Tactically, Paris FC’s defensive frailties align perfectly with Lorient’s strengths. The visitors are noted for weaknesses in defending through balls and individual errors, areas where Lorient’s wide attacking focus and individual skill can excel. With Lorient scoring 10 goals in just two cup matches this term, their clinical nature should outweigh Paris FC’s controlled but less punchy approach.
Tactical Indicators:
- Lorient are unbeaten in their last 11 matches (W7, D4).
- Paris FC are vulnerable to defending through balls and set pieces.
- Lorient have scored 10 goals in two Coupe de France ties this season.
Risk Factor: Lorient’s injury list includes four key attackers, which could limit their tactical flexibility if the game remains level late on.
⚔️ Scoreline Probability: 2-1
Predicting a 2-1 victory for Lorient accounts for both sides’ statistical profiles. Both teams average exactly 11.6 shots per game, ensuring a consistent level of goalmouth activity. Paris FC are strong at coming back from losing positions and have a high pass accuracy (86.6%), suggesting they have the quality to breach a Lorient defence that has conceded 32 goals in its last 22 outings. However, Paris FC also concede at a rate of 1.55 goals per game, and their vulnerability to skilful players like Pablo Pagis makes a multi-goal concession likely.
Risk Factor: Correct score bets are highly sensitive to game state; if Paris FC’s possession becomes purely defensive, the goal volume may drop below this projection.
⊕ Frequently Asked Questions
⊕ What is Match Result / 1X2?
⊕ What is Correct Score?
⊕ What do “odds” mean (fractional vs decimal)?
⊕ How does implied probability work?
⊕ What are the main risks of Correct Score betting?
⊕ What is bankroll management?
⊕ What does “value” mean?
⊕ What should I do if team news changes?
18+ | GambleAware | T&Cs apply. Set a budget, use deposit limits, and always stop when it is no longer fun.
