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Can West Bromwich Albion snap their ten-game winless streak to secure a vital victory at home? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
West Brom are enduring a dismal ten-game winless run and have conceded in ten straight matches. While Stoke have struggled on the road, their superior defensive discipline and West Brom’s weak finishing make the Double Chance on the visitors a strong proposition at The Hawthorns.
Read Rationale ▾
Stoke average 1.06 goals per game, identical to West Brom, but the Baggies’ tendency for individual errors and poor defensive transitions invites trouble. With West Brom often seeing over 2.5 goals at home and Stoke’s counter-attacking strength, a narrow 2-1 away victory is a plausible outcome.
[bt4y_readers_tip]
The Hawthorns plays host to a pivotal Championship fixture this Saturday as Eric Ramsay’s West Bromwich Albion welcome Mark Robins’ Stoke City.
West Brom vs Stoke City — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
West Brom enter as marginal favourites at home, but their ten-game winless run suggests a high degree of volatility in the 1X2 market.
Stoke’s low scoring average of 1.67 goals per game suggests a tighter contest, though West Brom often see high-scoring home matches.
West Brom’s leaky defence and Stoke’s width-based attacks point towards scorelines where both sides might find the back of the net.
Stoke City’s superior 54% possession suggests they will look to control the tempo while West Brom’s finishing remains a concern.
Three Punchy Stats
- Defensive Fragility: West Brom have conceded at least one goal in their last 10 consecutive matches across all competitions, including a heavy 3-0 defeat in their most recent fixture.
- Potter Possession: Stoke City currently dominate the ball more than their opponents on average, boasting 54% possession, while playing a style built on wing attacks and width.
- Stifled Scoring: Recent matches involving Stoke have been low-scoring affairs, with an average of just 1.67 goals per game across their last six Championship outings.
Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded per Match
West Brom’s backline has struggled significantly of late, whereas Stoke City have maintained a far tighter defensive record this season.
Conceding at least once in ten consecutive matches has left the Baggies vulnerable to clinical counter-attacks.
The Potters are much more difficult to breach, averaging less than a goal conceded per game.
Offensive Volume: Average Shots per Match
West Brom create more shooting opportunities than their visitors, even if their conversion rate has been lacking in recent fixtures.
Creating over 13 shots per game shows attacking intent, but poor finishing has resulted in a poor winless streak.
Stoke take fewer shots but maintain a possession-heavy style designed to wait for higher-quality chances.
Match Preview
The mood in the Black Country is tense; the Baggies are winless in their last ten matches and are coming off a bruising 3-0 loss at Portsmouth. Currently languishing in 22nd place, West Brom are desperate for a result to spark their survival bid.
Stoke City arrive in 12th place, sitting comfortably in mid-table but seeking to rectify their own travel sickness after losing three of their last six away games. While the hosts hold a strong historical record against the Potters—remaining unbeaten in their last seven league meetings—their current form suggests this encounter will be a brutal test of resolve.
Team News & Probable Lineups
- West Bromwich Albion: Jayson Molumby is a major absentee as he serves a suspension following a red card. The Baggies are also without Tammer Bany (torn thigh) and Daryl Dike (thigh problems).
- Stoke City: The visitors appear to have a cleaner bill of health for their starting eleven, with veteran Steven Nzonzi expected to anchor the midfield.
West Bromwich Albion (Probable 4-5-1)
Max O’Leary; Charlie Taylor, Daniel Imray, Nathaniel Phillips, Chris Mepham; Isaac Price, Mikey Johnston, Ousmane Diakité, Jayson Molumby*, Jed Wallace; Aune Heggebø.
Stoke City (Probable 4-2-3-1)
Tommy Simkin; Maksym Taloverov, Ashley Phillips, Bosun Lawal, Eric Junior Bocat; Tomas Rigo, Steven Nzonzi; Lamine Cissé, Joon-ho Bae, Sorba Thomas; Milan Smit.
The absence of Molumby in the engine room leaves West Brom vulnerable in central transitions, especially against a Stoke side that enjoys rotating its midfield to keep the tempo high.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | West Brom | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Scored (Avg) | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| Goals Conceded (Avg) | 1.53 | 0.94 |
| Average Possession | 51% | 54% |
| Total Shots (Avg) | 13.66 | 11.36 |
West Brom actually create more opportunities, averaging over 13 shots per game, but their finishing is “very weak.” Stoke are far more disciplined defensively, conceding less than a goal per game on average, which could prove the deciding factor at The Hawthorns.
Tactical Battle
West Brom’s Central Focus vs Stoke’s Wing Wizardry
West Brom prefer to attack through the middle, utilizing short passes and the creative output of Mikey Johnston, who has provided nine assists this term. However, they face a Stoke side that thrives on attacking down the wings, spearheaded by Sorba Thomas. Thomas is the visitor’s danger man, leading their charts with nine goals and six assists.
The Counter-Attack Threat
Stoke are strongest on the counter-attack, which spells trouble for a West Brom defence that is weak at defending through-ball attacks. Nathaniel Phillips and Chris Mepham will need to be alert to the pace of Milan Smit and the supporting runs of Joon-ho Bae. If the Baggies commit too many men forward to snap their winless streak, they could be picked apart on the break.
Set Piece Situations
One area where West Brom excel is at both attacking and defending set pieces. With Phillips winning nearly four aerial duels per game, the hosts will look to exploit any dead-ball opportunities to bypass Stoke’s possession-heavy game. Conversely, West Brom’s tendency to commit individual errors and their vulnerability to long shots could invite Stoke to test Max O’Leary from distance.
Key Moments to Watch
- The First 20 Minutes: West Brom have conceded in 10 straight games; if Stoke score early, the confidence of a side winless in 10 could shatter.
- Sorba Thomas’s Delivery: Thomas is the focal point of the Potters’ attack. His battle with Charlie Taylor on the flank will be crucial.
- Discipline at The Hawthorns: Stoke are an aggressive side, while West Brom are missing a key midfielder to suspension. A high-tempered Black Country atmosphere could lead to cards.
What Could Go Wrong?
Volatility remains high for the hosts. While they have seen over 2.5 goals in their last four home games, their inability to finish chances is chronic. If Stoke successfully protect a lead—a noted strength of theirs—West Brom could find themselves knocking on a door that simply won’t open.
📊 Market Explainer
Double Chance (X2)
A Double Chance bet allows you to cover two of the three possible outcomes in a single bet. For “Stoke City or Draw”, your bet wins if Stoke win the match or if the game ends in a stalemate. Trade-off: This offers higher probability than a straight win bet, though the price is typically lower to account for the reduced volatility.
Correct Score
This market requires you to predict the exact final score of the match. Trade-off: It is a high-risk, high-reward market due to its volatility. Suitability ranges from small-stake speculative picks to those seeking high returns on a specific game-state scenario.
🎯 Stoke City or Draw Rationale
West Bromwich Albion are currently mired in a ten-game winless run that has seen their defensive structure crumble. Conceding at least one goal in ten consecutive matches highlights a deep-seated fragility that Stoke City are well-positioned to exploit. Although the Potters have struggled on their travels, they possess superior ball retention with an average of 54% possession. West Brom’s finishing has been described as very weak, which means they often fail to capitalise on their higher shot volume of 13.66 per game. Given the Baggies’ inability to keep a clean sheet and their recent lack of winning momentum, Stoke represent significant value to at least leave The Hawthorns with a point.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- West Brom’s ten-game winless streak in all competitions.
- Baggies have failed to keep a clean sheet in ten straight matches.
- Stoke’s superior possession (54%) allows them to dictate match tempo.
Risk Factor: West Brom remain unbeaten in their last seven league encounters against Stoke, a historical trend that contradicts their current abysmal form.
🎯 Stoke City 2-1 Rationale
While Stoke’s recent matches have often been low-scoring affairs, West Brom’s recent defensive collapses suggest a more open encounter is likely. The Baggies have seen over 2.5 goals in their last four home games, largely due to their vulnerability to through balls and individual errors. Stoke’s strength in counter-attacks and wing play, led by the productive Sorba Thomas, matches perfectly against West Brom’s weakness in defending the flanks. A 2-1 scoreline is plausible as both sides average 1.06 goals per game, but West Brom’s defensive concessions (1.53 average) suggest they will leak more than once against a disciplined Stoke side.
WBA CONCEDED
STK CONCEDED
Risk Factor: West Brom’s “very weak” finishing might prevent them from getting the solitary goal required to make this specific scoreline land.
Q&A Section ⊕
⊕ What is a Double Chance bet?
A Double Chance bet allows you to cover two out of three match outcomes, such as a win for the away team or a draw.
This market reduces risk by giving you two chances to win, though the odds are typically lower than a single match result bet.
⊕ Why is West Brom’s defensive record significant for this game?
West Brom have conceded in ten straight games, highlighting a consistent failure to keep clean sheets.
This leaky defence makes them vulnerable to Stoke’s counter-attacking style and clinical wing play.
⊕ Does Stoke’s possession stat matter in an away game?
Stoke average 54% possession, which suggests they are comfortable controlling the ball even in hostile environments.
By keeping the ball, they can frustrate West Brom and limit the number of chances the home side creates.
⊕ What is the Correct Score market?
The Correct Score market is a wager on the final exact scoreline of a football match after 90 minutes.
It is a highly volatile market because even a dominant performance can be ruined by a late goal.
⊕ How do West Brom’s home goal trends impact the Over/Under market?
West Brom have seen over 2.5 goals in their last four home matches, suggesting higher-scoring games at The Hawthorns.
However, Stoke’s recent average of just 1.67 goals per game provides a statistical counter-point for a tighter match.
⊕ Who is Stoke City’s key attacking threat?
Sorba Thomas is Stoke’s primary threat, leading the team with nine goals and six assists this season.
His ability on the wing will be a major factor against a West Brom side that is weak at defending the flanks.
⊕ Why is finishing a concern for West Bromwich Albion?
Despite averaging 13.66 shots per match, West Brom’s finishing is described as very weak.
This means they create many chances but fail to convert them into goals, which explains their long winless streak.
⊕ What does “Double Chance” mean for a beginner?
It is a way to bet on two outcomes at once, effectively giving you a win if the match ends in a draw or a win for your chosen team.
It is a popular choice for cautious bettors who want to avoid losing a bet due to a late equalising goal.
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