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Will Stoke City finally break their home hoodoo or can Leicester City overcome their mental block at the Bet365 Stadium? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Leicester have seen both teams score in each of their last seven away league matches. With a defence conceding 51 goals and Stoke needing a win at home, tactical gaps will appear for both sides to exploit.
Read Rationale ▾
Stoke’s wide threat via Sorba Thomas targets Leicester’s defensive weaknesses on the flanks. Given Leicester’s away BTTS trend and their current four-match losing streak, a narrow home win with goals at both ends is plausible.
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Stoke and Leicester chase a first February league win at the bet365 Stadium. Form, tactics, team news and key battles analysed.
Stoke City vs Leicester City — William Hill Snapshot
Market probabilities implied from current William Hill fractional odds.
Stoke’s even money pricing suggests they are significantly more likely to win than a Leicester side on a losing streak.
Both teams have scored in 7 straight Leicester away matches, which is clearly reflected in the high implied probability for ‘Yes’.
Leicester’s 51 goals conceded this season suggest that match volume will likely lean towards higher total goal counts.
Stoke have 14 clean sheets compared to Leicester’s 4, making them significantly more likely to shut out their opponents.
Match Overview: Mid-Table Mismatch or Relegation Scrap?
Bet365 Stadium hosts a Midlands clash with both sides desperate to break their February league duck. Stoke sit 14th on 43 points, Leicester are 22nd on 32, and neither arrives with the kind of form that settles nerves.
Mark Robins has a Stoke side stuck in a grim rhythm — seven without a win in all competitions (D3 L4) — while Andy King’s Leicester come in on the back of a four-match losing streak in the Championship. Add in Stoke’s long wait for a home league win and a head-to-head run that’s tilted heavily Leicester’s way, and this one has edge before it has elegance. Expect tension early… then a game that could open up fast.
Defensive Comparison: Clean Sheet Productivity
A look at how often each side has managed to shut out their opponents during this Championship campaign.
Despite home win struggles, Stoke maintain a respectable volume of shutouts across all competitions.
Leicester’s defence has been breached frequently, resulting in only four clean sheets this season.
Attacking Output: Average Goals Scored
- Home Frustration: Stoke are winless in their last four at the bet365 Stadium (D1 L3) and haven’t won a home league game since 13 December.
- Head-to-Head Hangover: Stoke are on a five-game losing streak against Leicester and have failed to win in the last 11 meetings, a mental hurdle before a ball is kicked.
- Chaos Factor: Leicester have conceded 51 goals in 32 Championship games and both teams have scored in each of their last seven away league matches, so swings in momentum feel baked in.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Stoke City Absences
- Junior Tchamadeu (knee injury)
- Gavin Bazunu (thigh problems, out until 01/03/2026)
- Bosun Lawal (hamstring injury)
Leicester City Absences
No injuries/suspensions listed.
Probable XIs
Probable Stoke City XI: Simkin; Lawal, Phillips, Wilmot, Cresswell; Seko, Nzonzi, Rak-Sakyi, Rigo, Sorba Thomas; Cisse
Probable Leicester City XI: Stolarczyk; Pereira, Okoli, Nelson, Thomas; Skipp, Winks, Fatawu, Mukasa, Mavididi; Daka
What it means: Stoke’s listed XI still includes Lawal despite him being ruled out, so that back line may need a reshuffle — and that matters against a Leicester side built to attack with width and individual bursts. Leicester’s shape looks set up for ball security in midfield, with runners either side of Daka.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Championship) | Stoke City | Leicester City |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 22nd |
| Points | 43 | 32 |
| Goals scored | 34 | 44 CLINICAL |
| Goals conceded | 29 | 51 |
| Shots per game | 11.0 | 11.6 |
| Possession | 53.6% | 51.5% |
| Pass accuracy | 79.9% | 82.1% |
| Clean sheets | 14 | 4 |
Tactical Battle
Stoke like to play with width, attack down the right, and use counter-attacks as a major weapon. That’s not just stylistic flair — it’s a direct route into Leicester’s soft spots, because Leicester struggle defending attacks down the flanks, and they’re also vulnerable against quality players. That invites a simple Stoke plan: get the ball wide early, isolate full-backs, and let Sorba Thomas be the main conductor. Thomas isn’t just a creator — he leads Stoke with 9 goals and 6 assists, and he’s one of the few who can turn a steady spell into a decisive action.
Leicester’s style points towards short passing, through balls, and plenty of work down the right. They also like long shots, which is a natural answer if Stoke sit in their own half and protect central areas. With 82.1% pass accuracy, Leicester can keep the ball, but the warning siren is loud: they’re weak at defending set pieces, avoiding individual errors, and even defending the lead. That combination creates a risky pattern. If Leicester dominate the ball and lose it in a bad area, Stoke’s counters and wide breaks are exactly the type of moment that punishes sloppy structure.
Stoke’s listed midfield includes Seko and Nzonzi — a pairing that hints at control and screening first, adventure second. Leicester’s likely double pivot of Skipp and Winks suggests they’ll try to keep possession tidy and release the wide attackers quickly. The match could swing on whether Stoke can turn Leicester’s build-up into rushed decisions — because Leicester are also very weak at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas, and that’s an invitation to pressure around the box.
Key Moments to Watch
- Wide duels early: Stoke’s right-sided focus against a Leicester side that struggles out wide could decide where the game lives.
- Set pieces and second balls: Leicester’s weakness defending dead balls meets Stoke’s willingness to attack from wide areas — expect scrappy, decisive moments.
- Discipline around the box: Leicester commit 11.43 fouls per game in the sample shown and are very weak at avoiding dangerous fouls; Stoke will want play stopped in Leicester territory.
- First goal tension: Stoke’s recent run and home wobble makes the opener huge — not because of “momentum talk”, but because Stoke are strong at protecting the lead.
What Could Go Wrong?
If Stoke’s finishing stays blunt — they’re weak at finishing scoring chances — the game can tilt towards Leicester’s strengths: individual creation, through balls, and spells of possession. And if Stoke are forced into defensive changes (with Lawal listed despite being out), one messy moment can invite the exact Leicester chaos that has shown up in their away league games where both teams have scored seven in a row.
📊 Tactical Analysis & Betting Rationale
Both Teams To Score (BTTS)
This market requires both the home and away side to score at least one goal each within the 90 minutes. It is popular because the final outcome of the match does not matter; you only need goals at both ends.
Pros: Keeps the bet alive until the final whistle. Cons: A single dominant defensive performance or a 0-0 stalemate can ruin the pick.
Correct Score
A high-reward market where you must predict the exact final scoreline. This requires a precise understanding of both teams’ attacking potential and defensive weaknesses.
Pros: High odds. Cons: Extremely high volatility; a late meaningless goal can change a winning ticket into a losing one.
🎯 Pick 1: Both Teams To Score – Yes
The statistical backing for both teams finding the net is centred heavily on Leicester City’s travel habits. They arrive at the Bet365 Stadium having seen both teams score in each of their last seven away league matches. This pattern suggests that regardless of their overall form — which currently sits at four consecutive losses — they maintain an attacking threat while simultaneously leaving the back door open. Leicester have conceded a total of 51 goals in 32 matches, a defensive vulnerability that Stoke City’s width-heavy attack is well-positioned to exploit.
Stoke’s recent home form has been frustrating, but they average over 53% possession, indicating they will control enough of the ball to create high-quality chances. With Sorba Thomas providing 9 goals and 6 assists, the home side has a clear focal point for their attacking play. However, Stoke have their own defensive questions, especially with potential reshuffles in the backline. Risk factor: A cagey start between two low-confidence teams could lead to a low-scoring affair if neither side takes early risks.
Tactical Indicators:
- Leicester away BTTS streak (7 games)
- Leicester total goals conceded (51)
- Stoke City high possession average (53.6%)
🎯 Pick 2: Stoke City 2-1 Leicester City
Predicting a 2-1 victory for the home side relies on the specific tactical mismatch between Stoke’s right-sided attacks and Leicester’s defensive lapses out wide. Leicester have shown themselves to be particularly weak when defending against quality wide players, which plays directly into the hands of Sorba Thomas. Furthermore, Leicester’s susceptibility to individual errors and poor set-piece defence provides Stoke with multiple routes to goal. Given that Leicester have conceded at a high rate all season, Stoke finding the net twice is a reasonable expectation if they can improve their clinical finishing.
The 2-1 scoreline accounts for Leicester’s scoring consistency on the road while acknowledging their current four-match losing streak in the Championship. While Leicester can keep the ball with an 82.1% pass accuracy, their tendency to commit fouls in dangerous areas (11.43 per game) often leads to pressure that their fragile defence cannot withstand. Risk factor: Stoke haven’t won a home league game since mid-December, meaning the psychological pressure of a close game could lead to a late equaliser.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Utilising Sorba Thomas (15 goal involvements) to exploit wide areas and deliver high cross volume.
Consistently vulnerable to attacks down the wings and failing to track runners in wide channels.
❓ Match Day Q&A
⊕What is the “Both Teams to Score” market?
⊕Why is BTTS favoured for this match?
⊕What does a “Correct Score” bet involve?
⊕Who is the key player for Stoke City?
⊕How poor is Leicester City’s defensive record?
⊕Can Stoke City overcome their home win drought?
⊕What tactical weakness should Leicester worry about?
⊕Is there a strong head-to-head trend?
18+ | GambleAware | T&Cs apply | Last Odds Update: Feb 10, 14:20 GMT | Editorial Policy
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