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Can Southampton turn cup confidence into a playoff push against stubborn Charlton at St Mary’s? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Southampton have taken 13 points from their last five league games and remain unbeaten in nine of their last ten home matches. Facing a Charlton side with only one win in their last ten away across all competitions, the hosts are heavy favourites to continue their playoff push.
Read Rationale ▾
Southampton are dominant but vulnerable to Charlton’s aerial power and set-piece threat. While the Saints’ short-passing game should unlock the visitors, Charlton’s physical presence through Dykes and Leaburn suggests they can find the net, making a 2-1 scoreline plausible for the inform home side.
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St Mary’s has the feel of a checkpoint fixture. Southampton sit 10th, but a win on Saturday would likely nudge them right to the brink of the playoff places.
Southampton vs Charlton — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with implied probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on match analysis.
Implied probabilities based on the 12/25 price highlight Southampton’s dominant home standing against an 18th-placed Charlton side.
With Southampton scoring 48 goals this season, the market leans towards an open game at St Mary’s on Saturday.
Charlton’s aerial power suggests they can breach the Saints’ defence even in a likely home victory this weekend.
Southampton’s 56.7% average possession should see them dominate the ball while Charlton rely on quick, direct counters.
Match Preview
Southampton sit 10th, but a win on Saturday would likely nudge them right to the brink of the playoff places — and the mood has shifted sharply after a burst of league form and a cup boost against Leicester.
Tonda Eckert’s side arrive with serious momentum: four wins and two draws in their last six matches, including that jaw-dropping 4-3 league comeback at Leicester after trailing 3-0. Charlton Athletic, 18th and seven points clear of the relegation zone, travel south needing stability and a platform.
This one screams game-state tension: Southampton pushing, Charlton resisting, and both managers hunting the moment that turns the afternoon.
Tactical Control: Average Possession
Southampton’s commitment to short passing is reflected in their high share of the ball compared to Charlton’s direct approach.
Southampton’s identity relies on dominating the ball to unpick deep-sitting defensive blocks.
Charlton prioritise getting the ball forward quickly rather than sustaining long spells of passing.
The Physical Battle: Aerials Won
A major tactical mismatch exists in the air, where Charlton’s physical forwards hold a significant statistical advantage.
Defending high crosses and second balls remains a recurring challenge for the Saints’ backline.
With Dykes and Leaburn, Charlton are built to turn clearances into attacking territory via the air.
- Form Flip at the Perfect Time: Southampton have taken 13 points from their last five league games, a surge that’s dragged them to within two points of the top six.
- Ball-Winners vs Ball-Keepers: Southampton average 56% possession with 83% pass accuracy, while Charlton sit at 43% possession and 71% pass accuracy—a clash of control and disruption.
- Home Control, Away Wobble: Southampton are unbeaten in nine of their last 10 home games in all competitions, while Charlton have managed one win in their last 10 away across all competitions.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Injuries & Absences
Southampton: Jack Stephens (calf injury), Alex McCarthy (wrist injury), Cyle Larin (hamstring injury), Mads Roerslev Rasmussen (knee injury)
Charlton Athletic: No injuries or suspensions listed.
Southampton probable XI
Peretz; Bree, Harwood-Bellis, Stephens, Manning; Downes, Charles; Fellows, Archer, Scienza; Stewart
Charlton Athletic probable XI
Kaminski; Ramsay, Jones, Bell; Coady; Fevrier, Coventry, Docherty, Chambers; Leaburn, Dykes
Tactical Selection Impact
Southampton’s selection leans into control: Downes and Charles set the rhythm, with Scienza and Fellows supplying the acceleration around Stewart.
Charlton’s shape looks built for duels and second balls: Dykes and Leaburn give them a direct outlet, and Coady sits in the middle of it all to stitch clearances into attacks.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Championship) | Southampton | Charlton Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 18th |
| Points | 46 | 39 |
| Goals scored | 48 | 31 |
| Goals conceded | 44 | 41 |
| Shots per game | 14.3 | 11.4 |
| Possession | 56.7% | 43.5% |
| Pass accuracy | 83.5% | 71.2% |
| Aerials won | 14.8 | 26.5 |
Tactical Battle
When Southampton have the ball
Southampton’s identity is loud: possession football, short passes, and a constant search for through balls. That fits the personnel in the probable XI — Scienza (5 goals, 6 assists) is the creative spark who can unpick a set shape, and Harwood-Bellis (4 goals) adds threat on dead balls and in sustained pressure.
Expect Eckert’s side to try to pin Charlton back early, stacking attacks and hunting those half-spaces for the final pass. Southampton are also comfortable riding the chaos when it comes — they’ve built a reputation for coming back from losing positions, and that Leicester comeback is the poster moment. If the game gets stretched, Southampton won’t panic. They’ll play.
But there’s a warning label in their profile: defending counter-attacks and set pieces are areas of concern, and they’re also weak in aerial duels. That’s exactly where Charlton will aim their punches.
When Charlton have the ball
Charlton lean into long balls, frequent crosses, and playing in the opposition half. The plan is clear: get the ball forward early, win the second ball, and force Southampton into the kind of defensive actions they don’t love. With Lyndon Dykes (8.1 aerials won, 3 assists) and Miles Leaburn (5.6 aerials won) together, they’ve got a proper platform to turn clearances into territory.
Their weaknesses explain the blueprint too: keeping possession is a struggle, and finishing chances isn’t their strong suit. So rather than trading long spells of passing, Charlton will want quick entries, set-piece pressure, and repeat attacks off loose balls.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces vs Southampton’s soft spot: Southampton are weak defending set pieces and aerial duels. Charlton are very strong in aerial battles — that’s a direct collision.
- The first spell after half-time: Southampton’s average first goal time sits around 46’. If they step up the tempo straight after the break, Charlton could be forced into survival mode.
- Wide delivery and second balls: Charlton attempt crosses often and attack down the right. Watch how Southampton’s full-backs handle early balls into Dykes and Leaburn.
- Discipline and disruption: Charlton average 2.23 yellow cards per game (Championship) and Southampton 1.97. If the midfield turns into stop-start fouls, it suits the side trying to slow the rhythm.
What Could Go Wrong?
Southampton’s control can become predictable if Charlton sit deep and refuse to get drawn out. And if Southampton over-commit, one dead ball or one direct sequence could flip the script in a flash — especially with Charlton built to win those aerial moments. On the other side, Charlton’s struggles to keep the ball and convert chances can leave them defending wave after wave. If they concede first and have to chase, the match can open up in a way that drains their plan.
📊 Market Insights & Tactical Analysis
Match Result (1X2)
This market is the most straightforward way to back a specific outcome: Home Win, Draw, or Away Win. It covers the result at the end of 90 minutes plus injury time.
Pros: Clear outcomes and often the most liquid market. Cons: Offers no protection if a superior team is held to a late draw.
Correct Score
A high-variance market where you must predict the exact final scoreline. Because it is harder to predict, the prices are significantly higher than standard markets.
Pros: High potential returns for small stakes. Cons: Extreme volatility; a single late goal can void the selection instantly.
Other opportunities in this market: For those seeking a more cautious approach, Double Chance allows you to cover two of the three possible outcomes (e.g., Southampton or Draw), though this comes with a reduced price. Alternatively, the Draw No Bet market removes the risk of a stalemate by returning your stake if the match ends level.
⚔️ Tactical Rationale: Southampton to Win
Southampton enter this fixture as the form side in the Championship, having amassed 13 points from their last five league outings. This surge has revitalised their playoff ambitions, leaving them just two points adrift of the top six. Their home record at St Mary’s provides a formidable foundation, with the Saints remaining unbeaten in nine of their last ten matches in front of their own supporters. Under Tonda Eckert, they have developed a clear identity based on control, averaging 56.7% possession and a high pass accuracy of 83.5%, which allows them to dictate the tempo of matches.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Form Surge: 13 points taken from the last 15 available in the league.
- Home Dominance: Only one defeat in the last ten matches at St Mary’s.
- Technical Gap: Superior pass accuracy (83.5%) vs Charlton (71.2%).
The primary threat to this selection stems from Southampton’s defensive vulnerabilities. They have conceded 44 goals this season and struggle significantly in the air, winning just 14.8 duels per match. If Charlton can successfully bypass the Saints’ midfield press and exploit their aerial weakness through set pieces, the hosts’ control could be threatened. However, Charlton’s away form—featuring just one win in ten—suggests they lack the consistency to sustain pressure at St Mary’s.
Risk Factor: Southampton’s tendency to concede from set pieces and their low aerial win rate could allow Charlton to snatch a goal against the run of play.
🎯 Scoreline Rationale: Southampton 2-1 Charlton
A 2-1 scoreline is plausible because it reflects both Southampton’s offensive superiority and their defensive frailties. The Saints are clinical, having netted 48 times this season, and their creative sparks like Scienza are well-equipped to unlock a Charlton defence that has conceded 41 goals. Southampton’s average first goal time of 46 minutes suggests they often turn the screw in the second half, likely finding the net multiple times as Charlton’s energy levels dip from chasing possession.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Winning 26.5 duels/match. Direct threat from crosses with Dykes and Leaburn.
Winning just 14.8 duels/match. Vulnerable to high deliveries and physical forwards.
Despite Charlton’s overall struggles, their tactical blueprint is specifically designed to hurt teams like Southampton. By winning 26.5 aerial duels per match and frequently utilizing long balls into Lyndon Dykes, Charlton can force goals without needing sustained possession. This stylistic clash makes a “clean sheet” for the Saints unlikely, even in victory. The risk to this scoreline is a more defensive Charlton setup that limits the game to a single goal, or Southampton failing to convert their high shot volume.
Risk Factor: If Charlton successfully slow the rhythm with fouls (averaging 2.23 cards), they could frustrate Southampton into a lower-scoring affair.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
⊕ What does a Match Result (1X2) bet mean?
A Match Result bet involves picking one of three outcomes: a home win (1), a draw (X), or an away win (2). It is the most common football bet and applies to the score at the end of full-time.
⊕ Why is Southampton vs Charlton expected to have goals?
Southampton have scored 48 league goals this season and are currently on a high-scoring run, including a recent 4-3 victory. Their offensive strength combined with defensive weaknesses in the air suggests chances for both sides.
⊕ What is the Correct Score market?
Correct Score betting requires you to predict exactly what the final scoreline will be at the end of the match. It offers higher odds than most markets because the probability of getting the exact number of goals right is lower.
⊕ How does Southampton’s possession style affect the match?
With 56.7% average possession, Southampton will likely control the ball for long periods, forcing Charlton into a defensive block. This usually leads to a higher volume of shots and corners for the dominant team.
⊕ What is Charlton’s biggest tactical advantage?
Charlton’s aerial dominance is their primary weapon; they win 26.5 aerial duels per match compared to Southampton’s 14.8. This suggests they are very dangerous from set pieces and direct long balls.
⊕ What happens in a Draw No Bet market?
In Draw No Bet, if the team you back wins, your bet wins; if the game is a draw, your stake is refunded in full. The bet only loses if the team you backed is defeated.
⊕ Why are Southampton favoured to win this game?
Southampton are favoured due to their current form—13 points from 5 games—and their strong home record. Charlton’s poor away record of just one win in ten makes them significant underdogs.
⊕ Does team news impact these predictions?
Yes, absences like Jack Stephens and Cyle Larin for Southampton could affect defensive stability and attacking depth. However, the probable XI still reflects a side with significant technical superiority over Charlton.
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