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South London derby at The Den: can Charlton blunt Millwall’s momentum and turn draws into points? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale
Millwall have won 8 of 14 home matches, while Charlton have managed only 2 away wins. Charlton have conceded in 8 straight away games, and Millwall are unbeaten in 13 head-to-head meetings.
Read Rationale
Millwall’s defensive organization and high shot volume (12.6 per game) contrast sharply with Charlton’s road struggles. Charlton concede 1+ goals in nearly every away match, making a multi-goal home win likely.
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Millwall FC vs Charlton Athletic FC Predictions and Best Bets
Millwall vs Charlton — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Pricing reflects Millwall’s fortress-like home record and Charlton’s significant struggles away from home this season.
Data suggests Millwall’s defensive stability often leads to clean-sheet wins at The Den against bottom-half opposition.
The numbers point towards a lower scoring affair, given Charlton’s away attacking struggles and Millwall’s solid backline.
- Fortress Feel: Millwall have 8 wins from 14 league home matches, and they haven’t lost 9 of their last 10 home games in all competitions — The Den rarely gives gifts.
- Away Day Alarm: Charlton have managed just 2 wins from 14 away league trips, and they’ve conceded 1+ goals in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — pressure arrives early and often.
- Derby Pattern: Millwall are unbeaten in their last 13 games against Charlton in all competitions, including three straight home wins in this fixture — history has leaned one way for a long time.
League Performance: Location Bias
A comparison of Millwall’s dominance at The Den versus Charlton’s struggles to secure results during away trips.
Millwall have proven difficult to break down at home, having avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 home fixtures.
Away form has been a major hurdle, with the side failing to keep a clean sheet in 8 straight matches on the road.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Match
Visualising the frequency of goal-scoring attempts as a measure of sustained final-third pressure.
Millwall’s direct style ensures they test the opposition goalkeeper frequently, supported by an average of 5.13 corners per game.
While creating chances through the middle, Charlton average fewer shots and corners (4.27) than their hosts.
The Den hosts a proper South London derby, and it lands at a moment when both sides need a response. Millwall, under Alex Neil, are right in the play-off picture with 46 points, but arrive after a 2-1 defeat away at Coventry. Charlton, led by Nathan Jones, sit 18th on 32 points and also come in bruised — a 2-1 home loss to Derby that keeps them uncomfortably close to trouble.
This has the feel of a momentum match. Millwall’s home record has carried them all season. Charlton’s away record has dragged them back. One side wants control and territory; the other needs composure and a way to survive the storm.
Team News & Lineups
Injuries / absences
- Millwall: Dan McNamara (knee surgery)
- Millwall: Will Smallbone (unknown injury)
- Millwall: Lukas Jensen (Achilles tendon rupture)
- Charlton: No injuries/suspensions listed.
Probable lineups (based on listed XI shape and personnel)
Millwall (4-2-3-1)
- Max Crocombe
- Tristan Crama, Caleb Taylor, Jake Cooper, Zak Sturge
- Billy Mitchell, Casper De Norre
- Femi Azeez, Camiel Neghli, Thierno Ballo
- Mihailo Ivanovic
Charlton (3-1-4-2)
- Thomas Kaminski
- James Bree, Lloyd Jones, Macaulay Gillesphey
- Conor Coventry
- Kayne Ramsay, Karoy Anderson, Sonny Carey, Tyreece Campbell
- Miles Leaburn, Charlie Kelman
What it means
- Millwall’s absences are concentrated around squad depth and key roles; with McNamara out, the balance of their wide defensive work becomes even more important against a side that likes to attack down the right.
- Charlton’s shape can crowd central areas, but it asks a lot of the wide players to cover both flanks — especially at The Den, where Millwall want to play with width and fire in crosses.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Millwall | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 18th |
| Points | 46 | 32 |
| League record | 13W-7D-8L | 8W-8D-11L |
| Goals (league) | 32 scored / 35 conceded | 27 scored / 34 conceded |
| Shots per game (Championship) | 12.6 | 11.4 |
| Possession % (Championship) | 45.3% | 43.2% |
| Pass % (Championship) | 70.3% | 71.5% |
| Clean sheets (all matches listed) | 11 | 8 |
| Corners per game | 5.13 | 4.27 |
| Yellow cards per game | 2.03 | 2.13 |
Millwall don’t need to dominate the ball to dominate the pitch. They take more shots, win more corners, and live for transitions. Charlton’s passing accuracy is slightly higher, but their possession is lower — that can translate into neat spells without sustained threat, especially if Millwall keep forcing them backwards and into clearances.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Millwall’s plan: width, crosses, and fast punches
Millwall’s identity screams “make it uncomfortable”. They attempt crosses often, play with width, hit long balls, and take plenty of shots. That fits a side built to squeeze territory rather than stroke possession. The numbers back it up: 12.6 shots per game in the Championship, plus a steady stream of corners (5.13 per match).
At The Den, the rhythm is likely to be direct and relentless. Femi Azeez (7 league goals, 7.24 rating) is the obvious spark — he shoots 2.4 times per game and brings end product. If Millwall are in the final third early, expect Thierno Ballo (4 assists) and Alfie Doughty (4 assists) profiles to matter, because deliveries and quick combinations are the point of attack.
But there’s a catch: Millwall are weak at finishing chances and keeping the ball. If they rush the final action, Charlton get breathers. If they lose it cheaply, the game becomes stretched — and Charlton’s best moments can arrive on the counter.
Charlton’s plan: survive the flanks, strike through the middle
Charlton’s strengths are counter attacks and aerial duels — and their style points to long balls, crosses, and attacking down the right. They also like to attack through the middle, which is crucial here. Millwall are weak defending attacks down the wings and avoiding fouls in dangerous areas, while Charlton are weak against through balls and skillful players.
That clash creates a clear picture: Charlton will want the first contact and second ball. If Miles Leaburn (5.7 aerials won per game) can turn clearances into pressure, Charlton can pin Millwall back in short bursts. Sonny Carey (6 goals) and Charlie Kelman (4 goals) then become the ones who need to make those bursts count.
The danger for Charlton is repeat defending. They’ve conceded in their last eight away matches in all competitions, and their away record in the league stands at two wins from fourteen. If Millwall force them into long spells of deep defending, legs go heavy, distances stretch, and that “defending against skillful players” weakness gets exposed.
The key duel: Millwall’s right-side push vs Charlton’s right-side habit
Both sides lean into the right channel in their listed styles. That means the match could be decided by who controls that corridor:
- Millwall want to attack down the right and deliver early.
- Charlton also like to attack down the right, but may need that lane for escaping pressure.
If Millwall win it high, Charlton spend the day facing their own goal. If Charlton break into it cleanly, Millwall’s structure gets dragged wide — and the middle can open up for runners.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set-piece volume: Millwall generate more corners (5.13 per game). Sustained pressure means repeat deliveries, second balls, and chaos around the penalty spot.
- Discipline under stress: Both teams average around 2 yellow cards per game (Millwall 2.03, Charlton 2.13). In a derby, cheap fouls can flip territory fast.
- First goals and game-state: Millwall’s strengths include protecting a lead. If they score first, the fixture can tilt into their favourite shape — organised, aggressive, and ready to counter.
What could go wrong?
Millwall’s weakness at finishing chances can keep the door open even if they control the pitch. And Charlton’s counter-attacking strength means one sloppy turnover can undo 20 minutes of dominance. If this stays level deep into the second half, it becomes less about patterns and more about nerve.
Best Bet for Millwall vs Charlton
Will The Den’s Fortress Factor Overpower the Visitors?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Home/Away Form | Millwall 8 wins at home; Charlton 2 wins away | Home Win |
| Defensive Gap | Millwall 11 clean sheets; Charlton conceded 8 straight away | Millwall Win to Nil |
| History | Millwall unbeaten in 13 games vs Charlton | Millwall Win |
Millwall to Win
Millwall are a dominant force when playing at The Den. They have secured eight wins from 14 league home matches and have avoided defeat in nine of their last ten home fixtures across all competitions. This consistency at home is the backbone of their promotion push, whereas Charlton are struggling significantly on their travels. The visitors have managed only two victories in 14 away league trips, a record that highlights a major vulnerability whenever they leave South London.
Charlton’s defensive record away from home is particularly concerning. They have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last eight away matches. In a high-pressure derby environment, this inability to shut out the opposition is likely to be exploited by a Millwall side that averages 12.6 shots per game. Millwall’s tactical approach focuses on width and high-volume crossing, which will put immense strain on a Charlton defense that has shown a consistent tendency to leak goals.
History also heavily favors the home side. Millwall are unbeaten in their last 13 encounters with Charlton, a streak that includes three consecutive home wins in this specific fixture. This psychological edge, combined with the statistical disparity in home and away form, makes a Millwall victory the most authoritative conclusion. While Charlton may attempt to strike through the middle, Millwall’s superior organization and home momentum are expected to dictate the tempo and the result.
What could go wrong? Millwall have shown a weakness in finishing clinical chances, which can sometimes result in games staying closer than they should be. If Charlton can utilize their strength in aerial duels to survive the initial crossing barrage and strike on a counter-attack, they could frustrate the hosts and snatch a point.
Correct Score Lean
Millwall 2-0 Charlton
This scoreline aligns with the statistical reality that Millwall are formidable at home while Charlton are defensively fragile on the road. Millwall have recorded 11 clean sheets this season, and facing an opponent that has conceded in eight straight away games suggests a comfortable shutout is likely. With Millwall’s high shot volume and Charlton’s struggles against skillful wide players, the hosts have the tools to find the net twice without reply, continuing their long-standing unbeaten run against their local rivals.
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