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Will Middlesbrough’s possession game unlock Blackburn at the Riverside, or can Rovers repeat their recent knack for shutting Boro out at home? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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This selection is strongly supported by recent seasonal trends rather than historical head-to-head data. Middlesbrough have seen both teams score in each of their last six home matches, indicating a persistent vulnerability on the break despite their territorial dominance. Blackburn have scored in 17 of their last 22 games and possess forwards who are currently outperforming their xG, making them highly efficient finishers. Given Middlesbrough’s defensive injury concerns and Blackburn’s ability to strike quickly in transition, there is a high probability that both goalkeepers will be beaten at the Riverside.
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Middlesbrough’s strong overall home record makes them the most likely winners, as they have avoided defeat in 20 of their last 24 home Championship matches. However, their tendency to concede at home remains a factor. A 2-1 scoreline accounts for Middlesbrough’s superior possession and shot volume while acknowledging Blackburn’s clinical nature in front of goal. This outcome aligns with the "Both Teams to Score" narrative while respecting Middlesbrough's higher standing in the table and their consistent 1.5 goals per match scoring average.
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Middlesbrough vs Blackburn Predictions and Best Bets
Middlesbrough vs Blackburn Rovers — bet365 Market Snapshot
Pricing shown below based on match analysis and implied probabilities.
Middlesbrough’s status as promotion contenders and strong home form makes them clear favorites against the struggling Rovers.
While history favors low scoring between these two at the Riverside, seasonal form hints at a higher-scoring encounter.
Middlesbrough’s home games consistently feature goals at both ends, aligning with Blackburn’s resilient scoring record.
- Home pattern with goals at both ends: Middlesbrough’s six most recent home Championship matches have all seen both teams score, hinting at open game states even when Boro control territory.
- Possession gap that shapes the tempo: Middlesbrough average 56.1% possession with 83.9% pass accuracy in the Championship, while Blackburn sit at 49.1% and 73.3% — a likely contrast in control.
- Fixture-specific drought at the Riverside: Middlesbrough have failed to score in their last three home games against Blackburn in all competitions, a quirky recent trend that adds tension if it stays goalless.
Technical Control: Average Ball Possession
Middlesbrough’s possession-based style dictates the rhythm of their matches, contrasting with Blackburn’s more transitional approach.
With an 83.9% pass completion rate, the hosts focus on patient build-up and territorial dominance.
Rovers are comfortable without the ball, prioritizing verticality and getting the ball forward quickly to the strikers.
Attacking Consistency: Matches Scored In
Both sides have shown high reliability in finding the net throughout the campaign, contributing to a high frequency of goals.
Scoring in 78% of their recent fixtures, the hosts maintain consistent pressure in the final third.
Blackburn’s efficiency is highlighted by scoring in 77% of games, despite often having less possession.
Boxing Day at the Riverside usually carries its own sense of occasion, and this one comes with proper Championship weight attached. Middlesbrough host Blackburn Rovers on 26 December 2025 at 15:00, with Sky Sports Football and Sky Go carrying the action. It’s matchday 23, and the league context is stark: Middlesbrough are second with 42 points from 22 matches, while Blackburn sit 20th with 25 points from 21 games.
That gap in the table doesn’t make it a procession. Not in this fixture. Recent meetings between these two have leaned into the scruffy, tense sort of football where space is rationed and goals feel like stolen goods. Blackburn won 1-0 at the Riverside in the FA Cup on 11 January 2025, and also nicked a 1-0 league win there on 27 November 2024. There was even a 0-0 at the Riverside in March 2024. Middlesbrough did win 2-0 away at Ewood Park on 4 April 2025, but the broader pattern suggests fine margins tend to rule when these sides share a pitch.
Middlesbrough arrive having lost 2-0 at Bristol City on 20 December 2025, a result that puts a bit of edge on the mood even with a strong run in the six games listed around it. Blackburn, meanwhile, come in off a 2-0 home win over Millwall on the same date, a rare clean sheet on their recent run and a timely lift for a side living close to the noise at the bottom end of the table.
The stage is set for a clash of styles: a Middlesbrough team comfortable on the ball and productive in front of goal, against a Blackburn side that has often had to manage games without much possession, leaning on moments, finishing, and defensive resistance.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
The only injuries and suspensions listed relate to Middlesbrough, with two defenders noted as unavailable: Matt Targett has a hamstring injury, and Darragh Lenihan is out after ankle surgery. Those absences matter because Middlesbrough’s broader profile points to a team that wants to dominate territory and use controlled build-up, and defensive stability becomes more valuable the higher you push your line.
Middlesbrough are described as expected to line up in a possession-based 4-2-3-1. Within the squad details, that shape makes sense with the kind of attacking midfield options available. Morgan Whittaker stands out with eight goals and three assists in the league from an attacking midfield role, and Hayden Hackney has three goals and five assists across 22 appearances. Finn Azaz has a smaller minutes sample but is listed with a goal and an assist in 93 minutes, while Alex Gilbert has a goal and an assist in limited time too. The point isn’t to cram them all into one XI on paper; it’s that Middlesbrough have multiple players in the attacking midfield zones who can contribute in the final third.
Blackburn’s likely structure is described as either a pragmatic 4-4-2 or a 4-2-3-1. The personnel list supports both: Yuki Ohashi and Andri Guðjohnsen are framed as the two strikers Blackburn want to get running in transition, while Todd Cantwell has four goals and one assist and can operate as an attacking midfielder or wide creator. Blackburn’s team-wide numbers also hint at a side that can accept long spells without the ball: 49.1% possession in the Championship, with 73.3% pass accuracy.
There is also a subtle psychological wrinkle in the trends. Middlesbrough are unbeaten in 20 of their last 24 home Championship games, which suggests the Riverside has generally been a friendly place for them lately. But in the specific matchup, there’s a sharp counter-note: Middlesbrough have failed to score in their last three home games against Blackburn in all competitions. That’s the kind of stat you don’t talk yourself into, you solve with performance.
How the Match Could Be Played
The most likely story begins with Middlesbrough having the ball and Blackburn deciding how brave they want to be without it. Middlesbrough’s style is described as possession-based, and their season numbers back that up: 56.1% possession in the Championship with an 83.9% pass completion rate. That combination usually points towards steady circulation, patient probing, and a preference for constructing attacks rather than flipping games into chaos.
In a 4-2-3-1, the double pivot can act like a metronome: receive, recycle, switch, repeat. The attacking line behind the striker then becomes the engine of unpredictability. Whittaker’s output suggests he’s central to this, not just because eight goals is a big chunk of a team’s scoring, but because three assists indicates he isn’t simply finishing moves — he’s participating in them. Hackney’s five assists also points to a midfielder who can progress the ball and supply runners.
Blackburn’s likely pragmatic shape hints at two priorities: staying compact through the middle, and breaking quickly when Middlesbrough over-commit. That isn’t guesswork pulled from thin air; it’s consistent with their underlying possession and passing profile, and with the way they’re described as wanting to “get the ball forward quickly” to Ohashi and Guðjohnsen. Blackburn’s shot profile also fits that idea: 12.27 total shots per game, with 66% of those coming from inside the box. That “inside box” share suggests that when Blackburn do get opportunities, they often try to work them into the prime zone rather than settling for hopeful efforts from range.
Where it gets interesting is the clash of Middlesbrough’s control against Blackburn’s potential efficiency. Middlesbrough’s shot volume is higher at 14.04 per game, and they complete far more passes on average too: 489.74 per game compared to Blackburn’s 379.27. That can translate into territorial dominance and repeated waves of attack. But it also creates the transitional windows Blackburn are built to exploit, especially if Middlesbrough’s full-backs or attacking midfielders are caught ahead of the ball when possession turns over.
Set pieces could become a quiet battleground as well. Middlesbrough average 6.17 corners per game with 142 total, while Blackburn average 5.5 with 121 total. That’s a lot of deliveries into the box across a season’s worth of matches, and it hints at games where territory is often converted into dead-ball situations. If open play becomes sticky — and this fixture history suggests it can — a corner, a second ball, or a well-timed run into a crowded area can be the match’s turning point.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Start with the table basics, because they frame the likely rhythm. Middlesbrough have 42 points from 22 matches with a record of 12 wins, six draws and four defeats, scoring 33 and conceding 24. That goal return works out at 1.5 per match in the league summary, which supports the idea of consistent attacking output. The defensive record — 24 conceded — suggests they’re not relying on shootouts every week to get results.
Blackburn’s position and totals tell a different tale: 25 points from 21 games, scoring 22 and conceding 26. That concession rate creates the context for why Blackburn are described as having defensive vulnerabilities, and why they may choose a pragmatic set-up away from home.
Now the stylistic numbers. Middlesbrough’s 57% ball possession in the match stats section, alongside 84% pass accuracy, reinforces the idea of control and sustained pressure. Blackburn’s 50% possession and 74% pass accuracy implies they may have spells with the ball but perhaps not the same consistency in keeping it and building sequences.
There’s also a shared baseline of goal threat. Middlesbrough have scored in 18 of their last 23 matches (78%), while Blackburn have scored in 17 of their last 22 (77%). That matters because it suggests both sides can get on the scoreboard often enough to make game states unstable — even if the fixture’s Riverside history has leaned towards Middlesbrough being kept quiet.
Finally, the trends add a particularly pointed detail for this specific afternoon: Middlesbrough’s last six home Championship matches have seen both teams score. That’s not a promise of anything, but it hints at the sort of home games where Middlesbrough can dominate and still give something up — precisely the sort of opening Blackburn would want for their forwards.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first key moment is Blackburn’s choice of pressure. Do they step up and try to make Middlesbrough’s build-up uncomfortable, or do they settle into shape and try to deny central access? Middlesbrough’s pass volume and accuracy suggest they can play through a passive press, which would push Blackburn deeper and invite the sort of sustained attacking waves that lead to corners and broken defensive lines.
The second moment is Whittaker’s timing. He’s described as arriving late in the box, and his eight goals from midfield underline that this isn’t a one-off habit. Blackburn’s defensive midfield and centre-backs will need to track runners, not just the striker, because the danger can arrive from a slightly delayed movement rather than the first obvious run.
Third, keep an eye on the finishing at both ends, because there are numbers here that scream “moments decide games.” Blackburn’s two forwards are described as significantly outperforming their expected goals: Ohashi with seven goals from 3.65 xG, and Guðjohnsen with seven from 1.52 xG. That doesn’t tell you what will happen next, but it does tell you Blackburn have had forwards converting chances at a rate that can punish the slightest lapse. Middlesbrough’s own summary points out that their 33 goals have come from an xG of 15.42, which supports the idea that when they create, they’ve often made it count.
Then there’s the odd little historical knot: Middlesbrough failing to score in their last three home games against Blackburn in all competitions. If that pattern starts to creep into the players’ heads as minutes tick by, the game can become impatient. That impatience is exactly what Blackburn would welcome, because rushed attacks are often the easiest to counter.
What could go wrong with this read? The match could be decided by something that ignores the broader rhythm entirely: a single defensive mistake, a set-piece second ball, or an early goal that flips the incentives. If Blackburn score first, Middlesbrough may have to chase with even more bodies forward. If Middlesbrough score early, Blackburn’s “pragmatic” plan may need to open up sooner than they’d like. Either way, the margins can be thin, and this fixture has a recent habit of being stubborn.
Best Bet for Middlesbrough vs Blackburn
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Both Teams to Score – Yes
Rationale
The upcoming clash at the Riverside presents a compelling statistical case for both sides finding the back of the net, despite historical trends suggesting otherwise. Middlesbrough have been a model of consistency in the attacking third throughout the campaign, scoring in 18 of their last 23 matches. This offensive reliability is further underlined by their league average of 1.5 goals per match and a total return of 33 goals from 22 games. With playmakers like Morgan Whittaker contributing eight goals and Hayden Hackney providing five assists, the hosts possess multiple avenues to breach opposition lines. However, defensive stability has been harder to maintain; each of Middlesbrough’s last six home Championship matches has seen both teams score, indicating a pattern where they dominate territory but remain vulnerable to transitions.
Blackburn Rovers arrive with a profile that perfectly complements this high-event home trend. While they sit lower in the table, their scoring record is remarkably resilient, having hit the target in 17 of their last 22 outings. Their attacking efficiency is particularly noteworthy, as forwards Yuki Ohashi and Andri Guðjohnsen have both scored seven goals while significantly outperforming their expected goals (xG) metrics. This suggests that even if Middlesbrough’s possession-based 4-2-3-1 limits Blackburn’s overall chances, the visitors are clinical enough to exploit the narrow windows of opportunity that arise when the home side over-commits.
Middlesbrough’s likely loss of defensive personnel such as Matt Targett and Darragh Lenihan further increases the probability of defensive lapses against a Blackburn side that prioritizes getting the ball forward quickly. Although historical head-to-head meetings at the Riverside have been low-scoring affairs where Middlesbrough struggled to find the net, the current seasonal trends for both teams point toward a much more open encounter. With Middlesbrough averaging over 14 shots per game and Blackburn showing a high conversion rate inside the box, the conditions are set for a match where neither goalkeeper is likely to leave with a clean sheet.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to this selection lies in the specific historical trend where Middlesbrough have failed to score in their last three home games against Blackburn across all competitions. If Blackburn adopts an extremely deep and pragmatic block that successfully denies Whittaker and Hackney space between the lines, the game could descend into the same type of stalemate seen in previous years. Additionally, if Middlesbrough’s defensive line plays more conservatively to account for their injured center-backs, they might reduce the transitional opportunities that Blackburn relies on to score.
Correct score lean
Middlesbrough 2-1 Blackburn
Rationale
A 2-1 home victory is the most logical outcome when merging Middlesbrough’s strong home form with the statistical likelihood of both teams scoring. Middlesbrough are unbeaten in 20 of their last 24 home Championship games, making them clear favorites at the Riverside. However, since they have conceded 24 goals this season and shown a persistent habit of allowing opponents to score in their recent home fixtures, a clean sheet appears improbable. Blackburn’s clinical forwards are likely to secure one goal, but Middlesbrough’s superior shot volume and depth of creative options should see them eventually overpower a Rovers defense that has conceded 26 goals.
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