bet365
BetMGM
William Hill
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Can Leicester City Continue Their Historic Dominance Over Watford? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
To use the Live Streaming service you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo location and live streaming rules apply.
▾
Monaco have lost three straight games and are missing key creative players. Lorient are unbeaten in six and have a superior recent H2H record.
▾
Monaco rarely keep clean sheets but Lorient's low-block style often results in low-scoring stalemates against superior possession teams.
Readers’ Tip
Vote your pick — quick & anonymous
Terms & Conditions (tap to view)
Leicester City vs Watford Predictions and Best Bets
Leicester City vs Watford — bet365 Market Snapshot
Market snapshot showing implied probabilities from listed odds.
Historical dominance and home advantage are reflected in the current pricing for the match outcome.
Pricing points toward a competitive game with the 1-1 draw and 1-0 home win among the most likely results.
- Goalmouth chaos lately: Leicester’s last six matches have produced 25 total goals at 4.17 per game, with Leicester scoring 11 — a hint of open game states and frequent box action.
- Shared scoring habit: Across the “last 23 matches” snapshot, both Leicester and Watford are shown scoring in 19 of 23 games (83%), suggesting neither side needs endless dominance to hit the net.
- Shot volume, same output: Watford average 14.1 shots per game in the Championship to Leicester’s 12.2, yet both have 31 league goals from 22 matches — efficiency and chance quality may decide it.
Technical Control: Passing Accuracy
Both teams show high technical standards, with Leicester City edging the ball retention metrics over the season.
A platform built on over 10,000 passes reflects a structured approach to possession.
Watford remain efficient on the ball, supporting their high volume of shots per game.
Offensive Reliability: Frequency of Scoring
This shows how often each side has successfully found the net across their last 23 matches.
Scoring in 83% of their games, the hosts have been consistent in front of goal.
Matching Leicester’s scoring rate, the visitors have rarely been shut out.
Watford head to the King Power Stadium on Friday for a Championship meeting with Leicester City, with the table offering a neat little snapshot of just how tight this race is. Leicester start the round 13th on 31 points, Watford 10th on 32, and both arrive with recent matches that hint at very different moods.
Leicester’s last outing was a bruising one: a 4-1 defeat away at Queens Park Rangers. They had 55% of the ball and managed nine shots, but only two hit the target, and Silko Thomas’ 82nd-minute strike ended up as a late consolation. QPR, by contrast, put six of their 12 attempts on target and were four up by half-time through Kōki Saitō, Richard Kone, Karamoko Dembélé and Amadou Mbengue. It was the sort of afternoon that leaves you wanting the next game to arrive quickly.
Watford’s most recent league match went much better on the scoreboard, edging Stoke City 1-0. The Hornets had 41% possession but were sharp enough in key moments, getting five of their 10 shots on target and finding the winner through Luca Kjerrumgaard on 74 minutes. Stoke managed seven attempts and only one on target, so it was a game Watford controlled more through the quality of chances than the quantity of the ball.
This fixture also comes with a long-running edge in the background. Leicester have not lost a league game against Watford across their previous six meetings, and Watford’s league trips to Leicester have been particularly unkind, with no away victory in the last eight such visits.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Leicester are expected to go with a 4-2-3-1, with Jakub Stolarczyk in goal behind Ricardo Pereira, Ben Nelson, Jannik Vestergaard and Luke Thomas. The double pivot is tipped to be Jordan James alongside Oliver Skipp, with Issahaku Fatawu and Stephy Mavididi either side of Bobby Reid as the central creator, and Jordan Ayew leading the line.
There are also notable absences listed: Patson Daka is away after being called up to a national team until 19 January 2026, while Harry Winks is suspended. Harry Souttar is ruled out with an Achilles tendon rupture, with an “until” date noted as 31 December 2025.
Watford are expected to use a 4-4-2: Egil Selvik in goal; Jeremy Ngakia, Mattie Pollock, Max Alleyne and Marc Bola across the back; Tom Ince and Othmane Maamma providing width, with Imran Louza and Hector Kyprianou in the middle; Giorgi Chakvetadze playing off Luca Kjerrumgaard up front.
On paper, the shapes set up an interesting contrast. Leicester’s extra attacking midfielder in the line of three should help them load central areas and connect wide runners to Ayew, while Watford’s two-man front can press in tandem and threaten quickly when possession flips.
How the Match Could Be Played
Leicester’s likely 4-2-3-1 points towards a game plan built around structured possession and controlled progression. Their Championship averages back that up: 53.1% possession and an 83.6% pass completion rate across 22 matches. With Skipp and Jordan James projected as the two deeper midfielders, the expectation is a platform designed to keep the ball moving, allow the full-backs to join in, and free the attacking three to find gaps between Watford’s lines.
The key question is where Leicester choose to build their advantage. With Fatawu and Mavididi either side of Reid, there’s a natural route to isolate Watford’s full-backs and force the wide midfielders to make uncomfortable decisions: track runners all the way back, or hold shape and risk Leicester getting clean deliveries into the box. Ayew as the single striker suggests Leicester will want their wide players and Reid arriving into the spaces around him, rather than simply playing direct and hoping.
Watford’s 4-4-2 can be stubborn if the midfield line stays compact, and it also gives them clear outlets when they win the ball. Louza’s individual output in the league is eye-catching: six goals and four assists in 19 appearances, with 2.3 shots per game and an 87.5% pass success rate. If Watford can win the ball and find Louza early, he has the numbers to suggest he can turn transition moments into genuine threat.
The front pairing of Chakvetadze and Kjerrumgaard hints at two different jobs. Kjerrumgaard has seven league goals in 16(4) appearances, and his recent winner against Stoke reinforces the idea that Watford can be patient and still land a decisive blow. Chakvetadze’s listed role alongside him suggests link play and support runs, which matters against a Leicester back line that will want to step in and squeeze space when the ball is lost.
Without getting carried away, there are also signs this could be a match of moments rather than constant control. Watford average 14.1 shots per game in the Championship compared to Leicester’s 12.2, yet Leicester have the same league goals total (31) after 22 matches. That combination can produce games where one side has “more” happening, but the other side is more ruthless when it does get into the right zones.
Set pieces and territory may also quietly shape the evening. Across 23 played games, Leicester have 120 corners (5.22 per game) and Watford 106 (4.61 per game). That’s enough volume on both sides to make dead-ball defending and second balls feel like an ongoing subplot, not a footnote.
William Hill
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
BetMGM
Bet £10 Get £40 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
bet365
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Betfred
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
10bet
100% Up To £50 On First Deposit
Show Terms & Conditions
The Numbers That Support the Story
Leicester’s recent matches have been noisy in front of goal. Across their last six games, there have been 25 total goals in Leicester matches, which works out at an average of 4.17 per game, with Leicester contributing 11 of those. That kind of pattern doesn’t just hint at entertainment; it suggests game states are swinging and both boxes are being visited often — exactly the sort of environment where a 4-2-3-1 has to balance attacking freedom with protection for the two centre-backs.
Watford’s recent results carry a different warning sign: they have conceded in five of their last six games, with opponents scoring eight goals in total across that spell. It doesn’t mean they collapse — they’re coming off a win and have drawn plenty — but it does suggest Leicester will fancy their chances of creating at least a few clear sights of goal if they can get their wide players turning and running at the back four.
Zooming out to team style indicators, Leicester’s edge in ball control is supported by the passing and possession profile: 54% ball possession is listed alongside 10,225 total passes, with 84% marked as accurate. Watford’s numbers are slightly lower on both: 52% possession with 9,724 total passes and 82% accurate. Over 90 minutes, those small differences can decide whether Watford are chasing and shuffling, or whether they can settle and build attacks with shape.
There’s also a shared theme around both teams finding the net: in the “last 23 matches” snapshot, both Leicester and Watford are marked as scoring in 19 of 23 (83%). That matters because it supports a match narrative where neither side needs dozens of shots to land a punch — and where a single poor spell can be punished.
Finally, the head-to-head trend points to Leicester feeling at home in this particular matchup. Beyond the “six without defeat” league run, the home streaks stand out: Leicester are listed as unbeaten in their last 10 home games against Watford in all competitions, and on a run of eight consecutive home wins against Watford in all competitions. Whatever the reasons, it’s a psychological layer Watford have to be ready to confront if the first swing of momentum goes against them.
Key “Moments” to Watch
A big early moment will be Watford’s out-of-possession discipline in the wide areas. Leicester’s likely front four behind Ayew naturally want to rotate, pull defenders out, and open passing lanes. If Watford’s wide midfielders get pinned deep, the Hornets risk turning their 4-4-2 into a stretched 6-2-2 — and that can leave Louza and Kyprianou with too much grass to cover centrally. If they hold their line instead, Leicester’s full-backs could get the time to deliver.
The next moment is the transition after Leicester attacks break down. With Leicester expected to commit bodies forward from a 4-2-3-1, the most dangerous phase can be the instant the ball is lost and Watford have two forwards ready to run. Watford’s general shot volume in the league (14.1 per game) hints that they’re comfortable getting attempts away, and the partnership of Chakvetadze and Kjerrumgaard gives them a route to get up the pitch quickly rather than needing long spells of patient build-up.
There’s also a finishing moment that feels tailor-made for a tight table clash: can Leicester turn possession into precision? Against QPR, Leicester had more of the ball (55%) but only two shots on target from nine. The difference between a controlled performance and a frustrating one is often a single extra runner arriving at the right time, or one cleaner final pass. With Reid as the likely central creator and Ayew leading the line, Leicester’s best spells may be the ones where the ball arrives into feet quickly enough for the next pass to be played in rhythm, before Watford’s banks of four reset.
Set pieces are the final “moment generator”. Both sides produce a steady stream of corners over the season totals, and Leicester’s aerial output includes Vestergaard winning 3.8 aerials per game in the league. Those little clashes — first contact, second ball, a clearance that drops awkwardly — can be where a match flips without warning.
What could go wrong with this read? Football has a habit of laughing at tidy tactical diagrams. A single early goal can rewrite the script: a 4-4-2 can suddenly sit deeper and play even more directly, while a 4-2-3-1 can become impatient and start forcing passes that weren’t there five minutes earlier. And with both sides showing an 83% rate of scoring across the “last 23 matches” snapshot, the margin for a brief lapse is small.
Best Bet for Leicester City vs Watford
[bt4y_article_veil]
Leicester City to Win
Rationale
The historical record in this fixture is one of the most compelling reasons to look toward a home victory. Leicester City have maintained a dominant grip on this matchup, having not suffered a league defeat against Watford in their previous six meetings. The trend is even more pronounced when examining trips to the King Power Stadium, where Watford have failed to record a single league victory in their last eight visits. Beyond just avoiding defeat, the home side has a significant psychological edge, boasting a run of eight consecutive home wins against the Hornets across all competitions. This suggests that regardless of current table positions, the environment and the matchup itself historically play into the hands of the hosts.
The statistical profiles of both teams also point toward a Leicester advantage in controlling the game’s tempo. Leicester average 53.1% possession with an impressive 83.6% pass completion rate, indicating a structured and disciplined approach to building play. This technical proficiency allows them to dictate the rhythm of the match and isolate opposition defenders, which could be critical against a Watford side that, despite recent defensive improvements, has conceded in five of its last six outings. While Watford showed resilience in their 1-0 win over Stoke, they relied on efficiency rather than control, having only 41% of the ball. Against a Leicester side that has completed over 10,000 passes this season with high accuracy, Watford may find themselves pinned back for long periods.
Furthermore, while both teams are separated by just one point in the standings, Leicester’s offensive volume is steady, and they have managed to score 31 goals in 22 matches. Although Watford generate a high volume of shots, Leicester’s ability to maximize home advantage and their historically ruthless nature in this specific fixture makes them the most justified selection. The tactical setup of a 4-2-3-1 also gives the home side the necessary numbers in midfield to bypass Watford’s banks of four and feed forwards like Jordan Ayew in high-probability areas.
What could go wrong
While the historical data is overwhelmingly in favor of the home side, Leicester’s recent 4-1 loss to Queens Park Rangers highlighted defensive vulnerabilities that Watford could exploit. The Hornets have been efficient on the counter-attack, as evidenced by Luca Kjerrumgaard’s recent form and Imran Louza’s creative output. If Leicester dominate the ball but fail to turn possession into shots on target—as they did against QPR where they managed only two—they risk being punished by a clinical Watford break.
Correct score lean
Leicester City 2-1 Watford
Rationale
A 2-1 victory for the home side aligns with the high-scoring nature of Leicester’s recent fixtures and the statistical probability of both teams finding the net. Recent matches involving Leicester have averaged over four goals per game, and both sides have scored in 83% of their respective matches this season. While Leicester’s home dominance suggests a win, their lack of clean sheets and Watford’s ability to create chances through high shot volume make a shutout unlikely. A one-goal margin reflects the tight nature of the table and the competitive history of these two clubs in the Championship.
Selected Bookmakers Offers
| |
New cust. Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on e-sports & non UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply. | |
| |
Open Account Offer - New Customers only. Bet £10 and get £30 in Free Bets when you join bet365. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value settle. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs , time limits & exclusions apply. Registration Required. #Ad. 18+ Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+. Play Safe. From 00:01 on 18.10.2022. £30 bonus. New customers only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility exclusions & T&Cs Apply. | |
| |
New cust only. Opt-in required. Deposit & place a bet within 7 days and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater to be credited with 3 x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 horse racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 football. Free Bets cannot be used on e-sports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+. T&Cs apply. Acca Club: Available to new & existing customers. 3 or more selections. Min Odds: 3/10 (1.3) per leg. Max stake: £500. Max Winnings: £200,000 per boost. Profit Boost amounts vary. Horse Racing, Greyhounds & Trotting excluded. Exclusions apply. Full T&C’s apply. 18+ GambleAware.org. | |
 | |
New members only. £10+ bet on sports (ex. Virtuals) 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days; £20 use on sportsbook, £10 on Bet Builder. Stake not returned. T&Cs.+ deposit exclusions apply #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New bettors. Select bonus at signup or use code SPORT. Wager deposit & bonus 8x. Max qualifying bet = bonus. Valid 60 days. Odds, bet & payment limits apply. T&Cs Apply; 18+ | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
New customers only, 18+. Min deposit £10. Place a £50 bet on any sport at 2.0+ to qualify for £25 in free bets and 10 Free Spins. Free Bets and Spins valid 7 days. £0.10 Free Spins. T&Cs apply. Please bet responsibly. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New members only. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals), placed & settled at 1.5 min odds in 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days, use on sportsbook only (ex. virtuals), stakes not returned. T&Cs Apply and deposit exclusions apply. Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+ New customers only. Opt in, and bet £10 on football markets (odds 2.00+). No cash out. Get 6x£5 football free bets at specified odds for set markets, which expire after 7 days. Offer valid from 12:00 UK Time on 25/08/2023. Card payments only. T&Cs Apply | gambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
