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Can Andy King calm a tense King Power night, or will Tonda Eckert’s Southampton cut Leicester open through the middle? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Leicester have conceded 47 goals this season and come in on three straight defeats. While they remain an attacking threat via Abdul Fatawu, Southampton’s superior shot volume (14.2/game) and recent form suggest they will outscore a vulnerable Foxes defence in an open encounter.
Read Rationale ▾
Southampton’s vertical passing meets a Leicester side that is very weak at stopping chance creation. With the Foxes conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game, Southampton have the quality to hit the net twice, while Leicester’s home spark should provide a solitary response.
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This is a Championship fixture with Premier League hangover and second-tier urgency. Leicester and Southampton both came down last season, and now Leicester have been hit by a six-point deduction.
Leicester vs Southampton — William Hill Market Snapshot
Market snapshot showing sample pricing and illustrative probabilities for this Championship clash.
Southampton’s recent form of three wins in five matches contrasts with Leicester’s three straight defeats, making the visitors favourites.
Leicester’s high concession rate of 47 goals suggests an open game where over 2.5 goals is a strong possibility.
Southampton’s vertical passing meets a Leicester side that struggles to stop chance creation, making a 1-2 away win plausible.
Southampton’s 56.8% possession average suggests they will dictate match flow against Andy King’s struggling Leicester side.
Match Preview
This is a Championship fixture with Premier League hangover and second-tier urgency. Leicester and Southampton both came down last season. Neither has enjoyed the landing. Now it’s messy: Leicester have been hit by a six-point deduction, they’re 21st, and the atmosphere is turning — protests, frustration, and a team on three consecutive defeats.
Andy King’s side can still score goals, but the leaks are relentless. Southampton arrive with a cleaner recent feel — wins over Sheffield United, Stoke and Watford in the last few weeks — and a style built around possession and sharp, vertical passing. Tuesday at the King Power isn’t just points. It’s control of the narrative in a season that’s been wobbling for both.
Offensive Intensity: Shots per Game
Southampton’s attacking style leads to significantly more shooting opportunities than Andy King’s Leicester side.
Southampton use their possession dominance to create repeat pressure, averaging over 14 shots per fixture.
Despite scoring 41 goals, Leicester struggle to sustain shot volume compared to the league’s top ball-dominant sides.
Technical Accuracy: Passing Success
Both sides value technical security, but Southampton’s vertical passing style demands high precision in tight central areas.
Southampton’s midfield base is built for sharp vertical passing, reflected in their superior technical stats.
Leicester prefer short passes and tempo, maintaining a respectable accuracy despite recent structural issues.
- Defence in trouble: Leicester have scored 41 Championship goals but conceded 47, the joint-second most in the league — attack isn’t the issue, control is.
- Shot-gap warning: Southampton average 14.2 shots per game, while Leicester sit at 11.7 — that’s a lot more pressure arriving at Stolarczyk’s goal.
- Mood swing fixture: Leicester come in on three straight defeats, plus a six-point EFL deduction, while Southampton have won three of their last five Championship matches.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Leicester absences / discipline
Bobby De Cordova-Reid was sent off at Birmingham after “red mist” — Leicester are forced into changes.
Southampton absences
None listed.
Leicester probable XI (4-2-3-1)
Stolarczyk; Pereira, Aluko, Nelson, Thomas; Winks, Page; Fatawu, Ayew, Mavididi; Daka
Southampton probable XI
Peretz; Bree, Harwood-Bellis, Stephens, Welington; Downes, Jander; Fellows, Azaz, Scienza; Stewart
Lineup implications
- Leicester losing a body to suspension reshapes their wide options and raises the stress level on a back line already giving up too much.
- Southampton’s midfield base (Downes–Jander) looks built to feed runners early, and that suits their love of through balls and central attacks.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Leicester City | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| League games played | 31 | 31 |
| Goals scored | 41 | 44 |
| Goals conceded | 47 | Not stated |
| Shots per game | 11.7 | 14.2 |
| Possession % | 51.7% | 56.8% |
| Pass % | 82.2% | 83.5% |
| Aerials won | 15.1 | 14.7 |
Southampton want more of the ball, and they usually get it. They shoot more, they pass cleaner, and they’re geared to create chances consistently. Leicester’s numbers suggest they can play, too — but when the game fractures, they’re the ones paying the price, especially with 47 conceded already.
Tactical Battle
Leicester: width, aggression, and a lot of risk
Leicester’s best football comes with tempo. They play short passes, try through balls often, and they’re happy to go wide with width and right-sided thrust. That points directly to Abdul Fatawu — 7 goals and 7 assists in the league — as the spark plug. If Leicester are going to drag the King Power into the fight, it’s through direct running, quick combinations, and second-ball hunger.
But Leicester’s biggest problems are structural. They’re weak against wing attacks, weak against skillful players, and weak at avoiding individual errors. Add “very weak” at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas, and it’s a grim mix against a team that’s very strong from direct free kicks.
Southampton: possession with a knife in it
Tonda Eckert’s Southampton lean into possession football, and they don’t just keep it for show. They attack through the middle, push through balls, and create chances through individual skill. Adam Armstrong and Finn Azaz give them cutting edge and decision-making in the final third, while Léo Scienza brings end product and craft.
Here’s the catch: Southampton are very weak defending set pieces and very weak at stopping opponents from creating chances. So even if they boss the ball, they can still concede the wrong type of chance — the sort that flips games with one delivery or one loose duel.
Key Zones
- Central incision vs Leicester’s chaos: Southampton’s through-ball game meets a Leicester side that struggles to stop chance creation. That’s a dangerous intersection.
- Dead balls and discipline: Leicester’s tendency to foul in dangerous areas is a massive red flag against Southampton’s direct free-kick threat.
- Wide duels at speed: Leicester want right-sided momentum; Southampton can exploit wing defending issues the other way. The full-backs could get dragged into constant 1v1s.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set-piece swings: Both sides have weak set-piece defending, but Southampton also bring a very strong direct free-kick weapon. One rash challenge can tilt the night.
- Shot pressure: Southampton’s higher shot volume (14.2 per game) can force long spells of defending — and Leicester’s errors tend to arrive under repeat pressure.
- Fatawu’s output: Leicester’s most productive wide player has 7 goals and 7 assists. If Southampton lock him down, Leicester’s spark risks going dim.
What Could Go Wrong?
For Leicester, the obvious danger is panic. A tense stadium, a three-game losing streak, and a back line that’s already shipped 47 can unravel fast if they concede first. For Southampton, control can become a trap: dominate the ball, miss the moment, then get clipped by a transition or a set piece — especially with their own issues defending dead balls and stopping chances. This fixture has sharp edges on both sides.
📊 Market Explainer: Understanding Championship Betting
Southampton to Win & BTTS
This market combines two outcomes: the away side must win the match, and both teams must score at least one goal. It is often used to find higher returns on a favourite when their defensive record is inconsistent.
Correct Score (1-2)
This market requires you to predict the exact final scoreline. It is a high-risk, high-reward strategy that relies on analysing both teams’ attacking output versus their structural defensive weaknesses.
Trade-offs in these markets include higher volatility; a single late goal or a missed penalty can ruin the entire selection. More cautious approaches might target ‘Double Chance’ (Away Win or Draw), which offers higher probability but significantly lower prices.
🎯 Pick 1 Rationale: Southampton to Win & BTTS
Southampton arrive at the King Power Stadium with significant tactical momentum, having won three of their last five Championship matches. Tonda Eckert’s side excels in possession-based football, averaging 56.8% possession and 14.2 shots per game. They specifically target central incision and vertical through balls, which presents a major mismatch against a Leicester side that has conceded 47 goals—the joint-second most in the league. Leicester’s structural issues are profound; they are weak against wing attacks and skillful players, and they struggle to prevent opponents from creating chances.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- Leicester have conceded 47 goals, highlighting relentless defensive leaks.
- Southampton average 14.2 shots per game, creating sustained pressure.
- Leicester are on a three-match losing streak and have been hit by a points deduction.
However, Leicester still possess attacking threat, particularly through Abdul Fatawu, who has 7 goals and 7 assists. Since Southampton are also rated as “very weak” at defending set pieces and stopping chance creation, it is highly probable that the Foxes will find the net. With the atmosphere turning tense and Leicester prone to individual errors under repeat pressure, Southampton’s superior technical accuracy and shot volume should see them prevail in a high-scoring encounter where both sides contribute.
Risk Factor: Southampton are very weak defending set pieces, which could allow Leicester to stay in the game despite being outplayed in open play.
🎯 Pick 2 Rationale: Correct Score 1-2
A 1-2 victory for Southampton is plausible given the clash between Southampton’s possession and Leicester’s chaos. Southampton’s 56.8% possession average suggests they will dictate the tempo, utilizing Finn Azaz and Léo Scienza to exploit Leicester’s weakness against through balls. Leicester’s tendency to foul in dangerous areas is a critical factor, as Southampton possess a very strong direct free-kick weapon. With Leicester conceding an average of 1.5 goals per match, Southampton have the clinical quality to breach their defence twice.
Leicester’s response is likely to come from their right-sided thrust through Fatawu. Since Southampton are very weak at stopping chance creation, Leicester’s aggression and direct running should provide at least one moment of success. However, the loss of Bobby De Cordova-Reid to suspension reduces Leicester’s wide variety, making them more predictable. A 1-2 scoreline reflects Southampton’s current form and possession dominance while acknowledging that neither side is defensively sound enough to keep a clean sheet.
Risk Factor: Leicester’s most productive player, Fatawu, could flip the game if Southampton fail to lock down the wide channels.
❓ Championship Q&A
⊕How has the points deduction affected Leicester?
Leicester City have been hit with a six-point deduction by the EFL, which has sunk them into 21st place in the Championship. This has contributed to a tense atmosphere at the King Power Stadium following three straight defeats.
⊕What is the ‘Southampton Win & BTTS’ market?
This bet requires Southampton to win the match and both Leicester and Southampton to score at least one goal each. Both outcomes must occur for the bet to pay out.
⊕Why is Leicester’s defence struggling so much?
Leicester have conceded 47 goals, the joint-second most in the league. They are structurally weak against wing attacks and prone to individual errors under sustained pressure.
⊕What is the Correct Score market?
Correct Score involves predicting the exact final result of the match. For example, picking a 1-2 win for Southampton means that specific result must be the final scoreline at full time.
⊕Who are the key attacking players for Southampton?
Adam Armstrong with 11 goals and Finn Azaz with 7 goals provide the main cutting edge. Léo Scienza also adds creativity with 5 goals and 4 assists this season.
⊕What does ‘1/2’ mean in betting odds?
In fractional odds, 1/2 means for every £2 you bet, you win £1. Your total return would be £3 (your £2 stake back plus £1 profit).
⊕Is possession a reliable indicator for match outcomes?
Possession shows which team controls the ball, but not always who wins. However, Southampton’s 56.8% possession combined with high shot volume (14.2) suggests they are effective at turning control into pressure.
⊕What happens to my bet if a player is sent off?
A red card can significantly change the game state. While your bet remains active, a sending-off like Leicester’s Bobby De Cordova-Reid can often lead to a defensive collapse for the disadvantaged team.
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