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Will Leicester’s right-sided threat and possession control tame Derby’s aerial, left-flank derby plan at the King Power? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Leicester City is currently on a streak where both teams have scored in six consecutive matches. Their aggressive possession style creates plenty of scoring opportunities, but their defensive record is a concern, having conceded 11 goals in their last five league games. Derby County is very efficient, matching Leicester’s 32-goal season total despite having significantly less possession. Given Leicester's vulnerability to set pieces and Derby's strength in aerial duels and direct free kicks, both teams possess the specific tactical tools required to breach the opponent's defense in this derby setting.
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Leicester has historically dominated this fixture, winning 10 of the last 12 encounters, including a 3-1 victory earlier this month. While they are in a "wobble" following two straight defeats, their home advantage and superior creative stats—led by Fatawu’s six assists—suggest they will outproduce Derby in terms of chances. However, Leicester’s defensive errors and tendency to foul in dangerous areas make a clean sheet unlikely against a Derby side that is strong in the air. A 2-1 win for the hosts provides a balanced reflection of these trends.
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Leicester City vs Derby County Predictions and Best Bets
Leicester vs Derby — William Hill Market Snapshot
Pricing shown below based on match analysis and provided data.
Implied probabilities based on the listed odds suggest Leicester are the home favorites despite their recent inconsistent form.
Low-margin outcomes are prominent in the scoring markets for this East Midlands derby.
Leicester’s recent streak of scoring and conceding is reflected in the BTTS pricing.
- Same goals, totally different journeys: Both Leicester City and Derby County have scored 32 Championship goals in 23 matches, despite Leicester averaging 53.0% possession and Derby averaging 41.1% possession.
- Aerial contest that shapes Derby’s route forward: Carlton Morris has 10 Championship goals and averages 6.8 aerials won per game, matching Derby’s long-ball and crossing style as a consistent way to build attacks.
- A recurring Leicester match pattern: Both teams have scored in Leicester City’s last six matches in all competitions, a run that hints at Leicester finding goals while still offering opponents chances.
Attacking Volume: Total Goals Scored
Both East Midlands rivals have shown identical efficiency in front of goal across their opening 23 Championship fixtures.
Averaging 1.39 goals per game with an 83.6% pass success rate.
Matching the hosts’ total despite averaging lower possession (41.1%).
Match Edge: Disciplinary Records
Aggressive styles from both teams lead to frequent interventions from the referee.
Vulnerable in dead-ball areas due to frequent fouls in dangerous zones.
The Rams have picked up 11 more bookings than their local rivals.
An East Midlands derby under the King Power lights is never meant to be quiet, but this one comes with a very specific edge: both Leicester City and Derby County are trying to shove themselves into the conversation around the play-off places. Leicester start the round 14th on 31 points, five behind sixth-placed Bristol City, while Derby sit 11th on 32 points, four off the play-offs.
So it’s not quite “must-win” territory, but it is the kind of fixture that can either sharpen a season’s direction or leave you staring at the table thinking, “Right… now what?” There’s also recent history to give it a bit of bite. These sides met earlier this month and Leicester went to Derby and won 3-1, with the Foxes 3-0 up at half-time. Derby will remember that. Leicester will, too — because repeating that sort of first-half control is the quickest way to turn a derby into something comfortable.
The form lines add their own subplot. Leicester’s last six Championship matches include two wins, one draw and three defeats, and the defeats have been noisy ones: 2-3 at home to Sheffield United, 1-4 at QPR, then 1-2 at home to Watford. Derby’s recent results show fewer highs and lows — one win in the last six across all competitions, but also a run of five undefeated away games in all competitions within their last six on the road. Not spectacular, not disastrous. Just awkward to play against.
In a derby, awkward can be a superpower.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Leicester’s possible starting XI is listed as: Stolarczyk; Pereira, Nelson, Okoli, Thomas; James, Skipp; Fatuwu, De Cordova-Reid, Mavididi; Ayew.
That points to a back four with Jakub Stolarczyk in goal, Ricardo Pereira and Luke Thomas as the full-backs, and Ben Nelson alongside Caleb Okoli centrally. In midfield, Jordan James and Oliver Skipp suggests a double pivot built to circulate the ball and keep Leicester stable when they lose it — a useful thing, given the team notes include “avoiding individual errors” as a weakness. Ahead of them, Abdul Fatawu, Bobby De Cordova-Reid and Stephy Mavididi looks like a line designed to carry the ball, commit defenders and create moments through individual skill, with Jordan Ayew leading the line as the finisher and link man.
There is also an injury and suspension note that lists Harry Winks as suspended, Harry Souttar with an Achilles tendon rupture until 31.12.2025, and Patson Daka called up to a national team until 19.01.2026. Winks is named elsewhere among Leicester’s key assist contributors, but he isn’t in the possible XI, so the midfield mix is already signalling an adaptation.
Derby’s possible starting XI is listed as: Widell Zetterstorm; Langas, Sanderson, Clarke; Adams, Thompson, Clark, Elder; Brewster; Brereton-Diaz, Leicester.
The names make the intention clear even if one line is messy. Jacob Widell Zetterström is the goalkeeper, with Sondre Langås, Dion Sanderson and Matt Clarke likely forming a back three. Callum Elder is included, and with Derby’s style noting width and attacking down the left, his role on that flank looks significant. Ebou Adams appears the engine in midfield, with Liam Thompson and Bobby Clark also named, and Rhian Brewster sitting behind the front line as the connector. Ben Brereton is in the attacking mix too.
Leicester’s listed style is short passes, through balls, long shots, possession football, width, and attacking down the right — and it’s described as aggressive. Derby’s listed style is long balls, crosses, through balls, width, attacking down the left, playing in their own half, and also aggressive. This has the ingredients of a derby that’s stretched: Leicester trying to move the ball quickly into wide areas to create isolations; Derby trying to bait those attacks, then hit the space with direct play and early delivery.
How the Match Could Be Played
If Leicester’s possible XI is the clue, the Foxes will want to take the initiative with the ball. The Pereira–Fatawu side is the obvious lane: Leicester are explicitly described as attacking down the right and playing with width, and Fatawu’s output backs up why — he has four goals and six assists across 23 Championship appearances, while also averaging 2.7 shots per game. That combination usually points to a player who isn’t just hugging the touchline; he’s receiving, driving, and ending moves himself.
Derby’s vulnerabilities create a natural target. Their weaknesses include “defending against attacks down the wings” and “keeping possession of the ball” being very weak. Against a side that likes short passes and wants to play in the opposition half, that can become a problem if Derby can’t relieve pressure. The flip side is Derby are strong in aerial duels and long balls are part of their DNA. So rather than playing through Leicester’s press, Derby may look to go over it, use Carlton Morris as the contest point, and drag the match into second balls and territory.
That’s where the game could tilt into a very derby-ish pattern: Leicester circulating, probing, and trying to draw out Derby’s shape; Derby holding their line, protecting central spaces, then springing forward quickly once they win a duel.
Out of possession, Leicester’s own weaknesses offer Derby a map. Leicester are listed as weak defending wing attacks and weak defending set pieces, and they’re also very weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas. In a game where Derby “attempt crosses often” and are strong at shooting from direct free kicks, those tendencies matter. It’s not just about open-play patterns — it’s about how Derby can turn Leicester’s defensive habits into repeatable situations: wide free-kicks, deep deliveries, and those moments where a clearance doesn’t quite clear.
On Leicester’s left side, Mavididi and Thomas will be important for different reasons. Leicester want width, but they also need protection. Derby’s style says “attacking down the left”, and Elder’s presence fits that, whether he’s delivering crosses or supporting the build to get the ball into that channel. That can set up a key duel: can Leicester’s left flank both provide an outlet and hold the line when Derby push into that corridor?
Central midfield might be the tension point. Skipp’s passing profile is tidy, and James adds goal threat — he has six league goals from midfield, Leicester’s top scorer in the competition. Derby’s “stealing the ball from the opposition” is marked as a strength, and their tackling and fouls totals suggest they don’t mind getting involved physically. If Derby can disrupt Leicester’s rhythm in the middle, the match becomes more direct, more broken, and more suited to their long-ball and cross-first instincts.
And then there’s the psychological layer of how each side handles leads. Derby are marked very weak at protecting the lead. Leicester’s weaknesses include stopping opponents from creating chances and avoiding errors. That’s a recipe for swings: periods where one team dominates, followed by a sharp reversal if concentration drops for a moment.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Leicester’s overall Championship profile supports a possession-led plan. They average 53.0% possession with an 83.6% pass success rate, taking 12.1 shots per game and scoring 32 goals in 23 matches. That’s not sterile keep-ball; it’s ball with intent, especially given the style includes through balls and long shots — two routes that can puncture a block in different ways.
Derby’s numbers lean heavily towards a different kind of match. They average 41.1% possession with a 73.3% pass success rate and just 9.5 shots per game, yet they’ve also scored 32 goals in 23 matches. That contrast matters: it suggests Derby can produce goals without needing volumes of possession or attempts, which aligns neatly with their strengths in finishing scoring chances and direct play.
Individual trends sharpen the likely battlegrounds. For Leicester, Fatawu’s six assists put him at the centre of their chance creation, while James’ six goals highlights a midfield runner arriving into scoring areas. For Derby, Carlton Morris is a proper reference point: 10 goals, 6.8 aerials won per game, and a 7.34 rating. That’s the profile of a forward who can turn long balls into territory, and territory into pressure — exactly the kind of mechanism that can test a side labelled weak in aerial duels and set-piece defending.
The discipline numbers hint at the edge, too. Leicester have 49 yellow cards and two reds across the league campaign; Derby have 60 yellows and one red. In a derby with two aggressive teams, those totals suggest both sides flirt with the line — and Leicester’s “very weak” note about fouling in dangerous areas makes that a theme Derby will happily lean into, because it directly feeds their strength at direct free kicks and crossing.
Finally, there’s a simple but loud trend: Leicester’s last six matches in all competitions have featured both teams scoring every time. That doesn’t predict chaos on its own, but it does point to a recurring match pattern: Leicester can score, but they’re also giving up moments.
Key “Moments” to Watch
First, watch how Leicester try to build advantages on the right. If Pereira can step into midfield zones and Fatawu can receive early, Leicester can pin Derby’s left side and create either cut-backs or the sort of through-ball angles their style leans towards. The derby context tends to speed up decisions — which is perfect for a winger who wants to attack defenders rather than admire the scenery.
Second, watch Derby’s left-sided supply line. Their style says they attack down the left and cross often, and Elder’s presence makes that feel like a designed route rather than a desperation one. If Derby are forced to defend for spells, their ability to jump out and deliver early balls into the box — especially towards Morris — could be the most reliable way they turn survival into threat.
Third, keep an eye on dead-ball sequences. Leicester’s weaknesses include defending set pieces and avoiding fouls in dangerous areas; Derby are strong from direct free kicks and strong in aerial duels. That’s not subtle. That’s a tactical invite.
Fourth, the midfield battle for control versus disruption. Leicester’s pass accuracy and possession numbers suggest they want calm. Derby’s strength at stealing the ball suggests they want chaos — or at least the sort of mess that creates transition chances and crossing opportunities without needing long build-ups.
What could go wrong with this read? Derbies have a habit of laughing at tidy plans. A single early goal can flip the whole landscape: Leicester might be pushed into longer balls and riskier decisions, or Derby might choose to sit even deeper and protect spaces rather than chase. And if the match becomes defined by moments — a set piece, a second ball, a defensive error — the “better” structure can be undone in seconds.
Best Bet for Leicester City vs Derby County
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Both Teams to Score (Yes)
Leicester City enters this East Midlands derby having seen both teams score in each of their last six matches across all competitions. This recurring pattern highlights a side that possesses significant attacking threat but remains vulnerable at the back. While they have found the net regularly, scoring 32 goals in 23 matches, they have struggled for defensive stability, recently conceding four against QPR and three against Sheffield United. Their defensive frailties are compounded by weaknesses in stopping opponents from creating chances and a struggle to defend set pieces—areas where Derby County is specifically equipped to capitalize.
Derby’s statistical profile suggests they are highly efficient. Despite averaging only 41.1% possession and fewer shots per game than many of their rivals, they have matched Leicester’s scoring output with 32 goals of their own this season. Their strength in direct play and crosses aligns perfectly with Leicester’s defensive struggles against wing attacks. With the visitors being particularly strong in aerial duels and from direct free kicks, they have multiple routes to goal even if Leicester controls the ball for long periods.
Furthermore, the previous meeting between these two teams earlier this month ended in a 3-1 victory for the Foxes, proving that both sides can find gaps in the other’s defensive structure. Given that Leicester is very weak at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas and Derby thrives on dead-ball situations, the likelihood of both teams finding the back of the net is high.
What could go wrong
Derbies can occasionally become tactical stalemates if both managers prioritize defensive solidity to avoid a demoralizing loss to a rival. If Derby chooses to sit extremely deep and Leicester fails to utilize their width effectively, the game could lack the transitional chaos that typically leads to goals for both sides. Additionally, an early red card—plausible given the aggressive style and high card counts of both teams—could force one side into a purely defensive shell.
Correct score lean
Leicester City 2-1 Derby County
This scoreline reflects Leicester’s status as favorites at home while acknowledging their consistent inability to keep clean sheets. Leicester has won 10 of the last 12 meetings between these sides, including a 3-1 win just weeks ago. A 2-1 result aligns with the fact that Leicester averages 1.41 goals per game and has a high shot volume at home, while Derby’s clinical nature on the counter and from set pieces should see them grab at least one. It respects the “Both Teams to Score” analysis while leaning toward the historical dominance of the home side.
The logic follows Leicester’s aggressive right-sided attacks led by Fatawu, who has six assists, likely creating enough high-quality chances to overcome a Derby defense that is weak at defending the wings. However, with Leicester’s defensive errors and Derby’s strength in aerial contests through Carlton Morris, the visitors are well-positioned to score. A narrow home win is the most probable outcome in a competitive derby atmosphere where Leicester’s individual quality in the final third eventually tips the balance.
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