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Can Hull City turn their New Year momentum into a top-two push against Stoke’s possession game? Read on for complete analysis and the best betting tips.
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Hull are 4th, scoring 1.72 goals/game, and have won 4 of their last 6. Stoke are 10th, have lost 4 of their last 6, and have lost 4 straight visits to Hull. The form and head-to-head trends heavily favor the hosts.
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Hull score freely (40 goals) but concede regularly (1.6/game). Stoke have enough attacking quality (Thomas, Manhoef) to exploit Hull's defensive weaknesses, but Hull's finishing strength should secure the win. Matches between these styles often see both teams score.
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Hull City vs Stoke City Predictions and Best Bets
Hull vs Stoke — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Hull’s strong home form (4 straight wins vs Stoke here) and superior league position make them the clear statistical favourite.
With Hull scoring freely (1.72/game) but conceding regularly, markets point towards a home win where both teams find the net.
Hull have seen BTTS land in 68% of their matches, making ‘Yes’ a statistically strong angle despite Stoke’s lower output.
With McBurnie doubtful, Kyle Joseph (6 goals) leads the line for Hull against a Stoke side weak in aerial duels.
- Hull’s platform is points and goals: Hull City are 4th with 41 points from 24 matches and have scored 40 league goals, showing why top-two talk is growing.
- Stoke’s recent league run has turned sour: Stoke City have suffered four losses in their last six Championship outings, a slide that puts extra focus on their game control.
- A key narrative thread at the MKM: Hull have lost their last four home matches against Stoke City in the Championship, a streak that adds edge to this New Year’s Day meeting.
Attacking Threat: Goals per Game
Hull City have been significantly more potent in attack this season, creating and finishing chances at a much higher rate than Stoke.
With 43 goals across their recent matches, Hull boast one of the most dangerous attacks in the league.
Stoke rely more on defensive control, struggling to match the attacking volume of the division’s top sides.
Open Games: BTTS Frequency
Hull’s high-octane style often leads to open matches where both teams find the net, contrasting sharply with Stoke’s tighter affairs.
Defensive lapses combined with strong finishing mean Hull games rarely end with a clean sheet for either side.
Stoke matches tend to be lower-scoring grinds, often decided by a single goal rather than a shootout.
Hull City start the new year with the sort of fixture that can make January feel like a launchpad rather than a slog. On the verge of breaking into the top-two conversation, the Tigers welcome Stoke City to the MKM Stadium on New Year’s Day in the Championship, with the table and recent momentum both nudging them towards a proper statement performance.
Hull are fourth with 41 points from 24 matches, level on points with Ipswich Town above them, and they’ve got 40 goals scored on the board already this season. The angle is simple enough: keep stacking results, keep leaning into what they do well, and that top-two chat becomes louder. Stoke arrive 10th with 34 points from 24 matches. Not a disaster, but far enough away to make this feel like a test of whether they can shift from being a tidy mid-table outfit into something more forceful.
The final week of 2025 underlined the mood. Hull rounded off the year with a narrow success at Middlesbrough, a 1-0 away win that followed a 2-2 draw at Sheffield Wednesday and a run of wins over West Bromwich Albion (1-0), Millwall (3-1 away) and Wrexham (2-0). Stoke, meanwhile, took a hit at home to Sheffield United on 29 December, losing 2-1, and their recent run includes a 0-0 draw with Preston and defeats to Watford and Ipswich, plus a heavy loss at Sheffield United earlier in the month.
There’s history here that won’t be lost on Hull either. The recent head-to-head meetings show swings in both directions, but the Championship-specific trend is particularly sharp: Hull’s last four home matches against Stoke in the Championship have all ended in defeat. That doesn’t decide anything on its own, but it does add an extra layer of motivation to a Hull side that are trying to turn good form into a genuine table push.
This game also carries a fascinating stylistic clash. Hull are described as aggressive, playing in their own half, using long balls, playing with width, and attacking down the right, with a clear emphasis on through balls and individual skill to create chances. Stoke are described as aggressive as well, also playing in their own half, also favouring width and right-sided attacking, but with “possession football” as a defining tag and a passing profile that suggests more control and patience. It’s the kind of match where both teams may believe they’re the ones who can dictate the zones and the tempo — and where the team that wins the transitional moments could end up looking far more comfortable than the overall possession numbers might suggest.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Hull City’s possible starting lineup is listed as: Pandur; Hughes, Egan, Famewo; Coyle, Crooks, Slater, Gyabi, McCarthy; Joseph, Millar.
Even without forcing every player into a fixed diagram, the structure of the names suggests a back three, wing-backs, a midfield line with Crooks and Slater central, and then Joseph and Millar as the front threat. The width is obvious — Coyle and McCarthy as outside options — and the presence of Crooks in midfield hints at a team comfortable mixing physicality with forward runs, especially when Hull’s style points to playing with width and using long balls and through balls rather than simply circulating possession for its own sake.
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However, there’s also an “injured and suspended” list dated 30/12/2025 that includes L. Millar (hamstring injury) and O. McBurnie (calf injury), alongside E. Matazo (cruciate ligament injury) and O. Ibidapo Ajayi (called up to national team until 19.01.2026). Millar appears in the possible starting XI despite being listed as injured, which adds uncertainty to how Hull’s front line and left-sided balance might actually look when the teams are confirmed.
Stoke City’s possible starting lineup is listed as: Johansson; Lawal, Phillips, Wilmot, Gibson; Seko, Nzonzi, Manhoef, Gallagher, Thomas; Mubama.
That reads like a back four with a midfield platform and a band of attackers behind a striker, in line with Stoke’s formation summary that shows 4-2-3-1 as their seasonal Championship shape (23 matches). The selection points to Johansson in goal behind a defence that includes Wilmot and Phillips, with Lawal offering versatility. Seko and Nzonzi as central midfield names suggests Stoke can try to build with composure, while the attacking trio — Manhoef, Gallagher and Thomas — gives them pace, delivery, and the capacity to carry the ball into the final third rather than relying purely on crosses.
The forward in the listed XI, Mubama, arrives with a defined output: 5 goals and 1 assist in the Championship, while Sorba Thomas has 8 goals and 5 assists and Manhoef has 5 goals. That is a frontline that can hurt opponents in multiple ways, especially in a match-up where Hull are flagged as weak defending set pieces and weak defending long shots, while Stoke are strong at creating long-shot opportunities and strong at creating chances using through balls.
How the Match Could Be Played
The simplest way to frame this game is to say it’s about right-sided intent. Both sides are described as attacking down the right. Both sides are described as aggressive. Both sides are described as playing in their own half. That doesn’t mean it will be cagey. It means both teams may be comfortable letting the game come to them for spells, then breaking forward quickly and decisively when the trigger appears.
Hull’s strengths point to a very specific attacking identity. They are rated very strong at finishing scoring chances, very strong at counter-attacks, very strong at creating chances using through balls, and very strong at creating chances through individual skill. That’s the blueprint of a side that doesn’t need a hundred touches around the box to look dangerous. Hull can win the ball, move it forward early, and trust their attackers to do something sharp — a run in behind, a pass through the line, a carry past a defender. Their style reinforces it: long balls and through balls, width, and a right-sided emphasis. In theory, that can produce a match where Hull are comfortable conceding certain areas in exchange for the chance to strike into space when Stoke lose their structure.
Stoke’s own strengths mirror parts of that. They are rated strong at counter-attacks, strong at creating long-shot opportunities, and strong at creating chances using through balls, while also being strong at protecting the lead. Their style includes possession football and width, with a right-sided lean. That suggests Stoke may want to draw Hull out, circulate until they can access the right lane, and then either slide a through ball into the channel or set up a shooting opportunity from range if Hull’s block retreats too deep.
So where does the game actually get decided? Likely in the moments where one team tries to play and the other tries to pounce.
Hull’s weaknesses are a warning label for how this could go wrong defensively. They are rated weak at stopping opponents from creating chances, weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas, weak at defending long shots and set pieces, and very weak at defending against through ball attacks. Against Stoke, that last weakness is especially relevant because Stoke are explicitly strong at creating chances using through balls. If Stoke can get their attacking midfield line on the half-turn — particularly Thomas and Manhoef, who contribute goals and assists — then a single pass beyond Hull’s midfield can become a race into the box, forcing centre-backs to defend while moving backwards.
The obvious response from Hull is to manage the space between their midfield and back line carefully, particularly if they are indeed using three centre-backs. With Egan and Hughes named in the back line, there’s scope to defend the box robustly, but the real test will be those in-between zones where through balls are played. If Crooks and Slater can screen effectively, and if the wing-backs can recover quickly when possession turns, Hull can reduce Stoke’s opportunities to play those decisive passes.
But Hull also have weapons that match up nicely against Stoke’s own weaknesses. Stoke are rated weak at aerial duels and very weak at avoiding offside. Hull’s style includes long balls, and their strengths include creating chances through individual skill and through balls. If Hull can combine direct play with timed runs in behind, Stoke’s offside issues could show up as either cheap turnovers or awkward defensive moments where the line is uncertain and the back four loses its spacing. The key is timing. A team that struggles with offside as a weakness often lives on the edge of that line — brilliant when it works, chaotic when it doesn’t.
The wide battle is likely to define territory. Hull’s right-sided bias suggests they’ll look for Coyle advancing into space and for that right channel to become the main route into the final third. Stoke’s own right-sided bias suggests they’ll try to do something similar through their own pattern, potentially bringing Thomas into positions where he can deliver or shoot. If both sides want the same lane, the match can become a series of duels and second balls rather than a neat chessboard.
That’s where the midfield choices matter. Hull have Crooks, a player whose output includes 3 assists and who has collected 8 yellow cards, suggesting a high-contact presence. He can be both a late runner and a tone-setter. Stoke, meanwhile, are listing Nzonzi and Seko in central midfield, and their overall possession and pass numbers point to a side that can keep the ball. Stoke’s Championship profile shows 53.7% possession and 80.6% pass completion, compared to Hull’s 46.0% possession and 76.1% pass completion. In other words, Stoke may try to control the ball and the rhythm, while Hull may try to control the moments.
Set pieces hover over the entire tactical read. Hull are rated weak at defending set pieces, and also weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas. That’s a dangerous combination against a Stoke side who can deliver quality from wide areas and who have players with end product. Even if Stoke don’t “dominate” the match, a steady stream of corners and free-kicks can become their most reliable route to pressure, especially against a defence that is flagged as vulnerable there.
At the other end, Stoke’s weakness in aerial duels could encourage Hull to be direct and to compete physically in the box, particularly if Hull use long balls to turn Stoke’s back line and force them to defend facing their own goal. If Hull can win knockdowns and second balls around the area, their “very strong finishing” trait becomes relevant, because those scrappy moments often decide matches when the open-play patterns cancel each other out.
The Numbers That Support the Story
Hull’s league position is backed by a season of goals and recurring threat. They have 40 goals in 24 Championship matches, and in the broader match set shown they’ve scored 43 in 25 matches, averaging 1.72 per game, while conceding 1.6 per game. That suggests Hull games can be open, sometimes chaotic, and often decided by whether Hull can outscore opponents rather than suffocate them.
Stoke’s numbers paint a different sort of picture. They’ve scored 29 goals in 24 Championship matches, and in the broader match set they average 1.12 goals scored per game while conceding 1.0 per game. That’s a profile that leans towards tighter games, where control and small margins matter. It also explains why “protecting the lead” is listed as a Stoke strength: if you concede less, every first goal carries more weight.
The shooting figures support the idea that this won’t be a low-event game in terms of attempts, even if the scoreline stays tight. Hull average 11.1 shots per game in the Championship, while Stoke average 11.4. The splits are similar too: Hull take 67% of their shots inside the box, Stoke 65%, suggesting both can get into dangerous areas rather than relying solely on hopeful efforts from distance. Hull’s on-target share is listed at 39%, Stoke’s at 33%. That difference matters because it hints at why Hull’s “very strong finishing scoring chances” label shows up; getting shots on target is a rough proxy for forcing goalkeepers and defences into uncomfortable moments.
Possession and passing show where each side might try to impose itself. Stoke’s overall possession is 53.7% with 80.6% pass completion, while Hull’s is 46.0% with 76.1% pass completion. In practice, that suggests Stoke could have longer spells of the ball, looking to work through their structure, while Hull may accept being without it and focus on transitions, through balls, and direct attacks.
Individual production also hints at how Hull’s threat is spread and why stopping them is tricky. Joe Gelhardt has 10 goals, Oliver McBurnie has 9 goals and 3 assists, and Kyle Joseph has 6 goals. Even with McBurnie listed as injured, the overall shape of the team’s attacking output shows multiple options. Add in Ryan Giles with 8 assists and you can see why Hull are rated very strong at creating chances through individual skill and through balls: they have both creators and finishers who can turn a move into an end product.
For Stoke, Sorba Thomas is the standout for volume and influence: 8 goals and 5 assists across 24 appearances. Manhoef adds 5 goals, and Mubama’s 5 goals and 1 assist provides a central threat. That trio supports the view that Stoke can hurt teams in more than one way: wide delivery, through balls, and shooting from range.
Recent form leans Hull’s way on paper. Hull’s last six in all competitions show four wins, one draw, one defeat, while Stoke’s last six show one win, one draw, four defeats, and it’s explicitly noted that Stoke have suffered four losses in their last six Championship outings. That matters not because it guarantees anything, but because it shapes the likely psychology: Hull can play with belief, Stoke need to find their best level early to avoid drifting into a reactive night.
There are also trend lines that sharpen the edges. Hull have seen under 2.5 goals in four of their last six home matches, while Stoke have seen under 2.5 goals in seven of their last ten away fixtures. Yet the “both scored” rates in the broader match set show Hull with 17 matches (68%) where both teams scored, compared to Stoke with 9 (35%). That contrast suggests there are multiple ways this can go: Hull’s games can turn into trades, Stoke’s can turn into controlled, low-scoring patterns — and the winner might be the team that forces the match into its preferred type.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first key moment is the through-ball corridor. Hull are rated very weak at defending against through ball attacks, and Stoke are rated strong at creating chances using through balls. That is the clearest tactical pressure point in the entire match-up. If Stoke can find early pockets for Manhoef, Gallagher or Thomas to receive and slip runners beyond Hull’s midfield, Hull’s back line will be forced into emergency defending far too often. The decisive detail will be where those passes come from: central zones just outside the D, or the inside-right channel after Stoke switch play and pull Hull’s shape across.
The second moment is the set-piece swing. Hull are rated weak defending set pieces and also weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas. If Hull’s aggression turns into needless fouls near the box, Stoke can turn a quiet spell into a big chance without needing long periods of open-play dominance. Equally, if Hull can win their own set pieces and force Stoke to defend crosses and second balls, Stoke’s aerial weakness could become a problem, particularly if Hull turn those moments into scrappy finishes.
The third moment is the right-flank duel that could decide territory. Both teams attack down the right, which often produces a match within the match: who can pin the other back, who can force the other wing to defend deeper than it wants to, and who can then exploit the space that appears on the far side. If Hull’s right-sided play keeps Stoke’s left-back and left winger occupied, Stoke may struggle to get Thomas into the zones where he can hurt opponents. If Stoke establish their own right-sided rhythm, Hull’s wing-back and left-sided defenders will be asked to defend repeatedly, and that’s where fouls and set pieces can pile up.
The fourth moment is finishing versus control. Hull are rated very strong at finishing chances, but weak at protecting the lead. Stoke are rated strong at protecting the lead. That’s a fascinating clash of endgame identities. If Hull score first, the question becomes whether they can manage the match without inviting pressure in the zones where they’re vulnerable. If Stoke score first, their ability to protect the advantage becomes a central storyline, and Hull’s response will likely be driven by directness and speed rather than slow build-up.
What could go wrong with this read? The game could ignore the patterns and hinge on a single, messy incident. Hull’s weakness at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas could produce a decisive dead-ball moment. Stoke’s very weak offside tendency could kill their best moves with a flag at the wrong time. And if either side starts well and pins the other back, the match might become less about transitions and more about sustained pressure — which would test Hull’s ability to stop opponents creating chances, and test Stoke’s ability to turn possession into clear, high-quality opportunities.
Best Bet for Hull City vs Stoke City
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Hull City to Win
Momentum and home advantage strongly favor Hull City as they look to break into the automatic promotion places. The Tigers enter 2026 in fourth place, level on points with third-placed Ipswich and boasting a potent attack that has netted 40 goals in 24 games. Their recent form is compelling, with four wins from their last six matches across all competitions, including impressive victories over West Bromwich Albion and a 3-1 away win at Millwall. Crucially, they possess a “very strong” rating for finishing scoring chances, a quality that often decides tight Championship encounters.
Stoke City, conversely, arrive at the MKM Stadium with a dismal recent away record and a specific historical hurdle: they have lost their last four Championship visits to this ground. Their form is equally concerning, having suffered four defeats in their last six league outings. While Stoke are noted for their possession play, they lack the cutting edge of their hosts, averaging just 1.12 goals per game in the broader data set compared to Hull’s 1.72. Stoke’s defensive vulnerabilities, particularly their weakness in aerial duels and defending set pieces, align perfectly with Hull’s attacking strengths in using long balls and individual skill to create openings.
Tactically, Hull’s direct style—using through balls and quick transitions—is well-suited to exploit a Stoke side that struggles with the offside trap (“very weak at avoiding offside”). With Hull scoring freely and Stoke faltering on the road, the data points clearly towards a home victory.
What could go wrong The primary risk lies in Hull’s defensive frailty against through balls (“very weak at defending against through ball attacks”). Stoke are rated strong at creating chances via this exact method, and players like Sorba Thomas and Million Manhoef have the quality to exploit any gaps between Hull’s midfield and defence. If Hull’s aggression leads to cheap fouls (“weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas”), Stoke could capitalize through set pieces, an area where Hull also struggle defensively. Additionally, the confusion around Liam Millar’s availability—listed as injured but named in the possible XI—adds a layer of uncertainty to Hull’s left-sided threat.
Correct score lean
Hull City 2-1 This scoreline reflects the balance of attacking power and defensive flaws on both sides. Hull are prolific (40 goals) and should find the net multiple times against a Stoke defence that has lost four of its last six. However, Hull’s inability to keep clean sheets consistently (conceding 1.6 goals per game in the broader set) and their weakness against through balls suggests Stoke will score. The “Both Teams To Score” trend is strong for Hull (68% of matches), making a 2-1 home win a logical statistical outcome.
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