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Can Derby turn Pride Park into a platform again against Wrexham’s wing threat? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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This selection is heavily supported by Derby’s current scoring record, having found the net in 15 consecutive Championship matches. Wrexham have been even more prolific overall this season with 36 goals and average nearly 11 shots per game. Both teams share a tactical weakness in possession, leading to open, transition-based games that favor attackers. Their previous meeting ended 1-1, and with both teams sitting mid-table and fighting for a play-off bridge, neither is expected to sit back. The high volume of aerial duels and through-ball attempts suggests frequent chances for both sides.
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A 1-1 draw is the most justified scoreline given the historical and statistical symmetry between the clubs. They drew by this exact score in September, and there is currently only a two-point gap between them in the standings. Derby have drawn 50% of their last six matches, showing a tendency to remain competitive without always securing the win. Wrexham’s defensive stability (31 goals conceded) against Derby’s consistent but not explosive scoring (34 goals) points toward a low-scoring draw where both teams contribute to the tally but ultimately cancel each other out.
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Derby County vs Wrexham Predictions and Best Bets
Derby vs Wrexham — BetMGM Market Snapshot
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Derby enter as slight favorites at Pride Park, though Wrexham’s recent unbeaten run makes this a highly competitive 1X2 market.
With Derby scoring in 15 consecutive games, the likelihood of both finding the net is reflected in the market pricing.
- Home-vs-away control: Derby average 41.3% possession and 73.5% pass completion in the Championship, while Wrexham average 45.9% possession and 77.3% pass completion.
- Aerial battle incoming: Derby win 22.8 aerial duels per league match and Wrexham win 23.2, suggesting repeated second-ball moments could decide territory and chances.
- Different routes to goal: Wrexham take 10.9 shots per Championship game to Derby’s 9.4, yet Derby have scored in each of their last 15 league matches.
Scoring Reliability: Form & Volume
A comparison of Derby’s consecutive scoring run against Wrexham’s average shot volume per match.
The Rams have consistently found the back of the net regardless of the final result for over three months.
Wrexham create more chances on average than Derby (9.4), pointing to a high-volume attacking approach.
Physical Battle: Aerial Duels Won
Both sides rely heavily on their presence in the air, resulting in almost identical success rates.
Derby County are back at Pride Park on Sunday with a simple aim: make a rare home success feel like the start of something, not a one-off. The Rams arrive off a much-needed 1-0 win over Middlesbrough on New Year’s Day, a result that landed with extra punch given the visitors’ position in the promotion race. Wrexham, though, turn up carrying their own bit of swagger after a 2-0 win at Blackburn Rovers, a statement away day at Ewood Park that underlined how awkward they can be when they set their mind to it.
In the Championship table, there’s not much between them. Derby sit 11th with 35 points from 25 games, while Wrexham are 10th with 37 points from 25. It’s close enough to feel like a direct contest for momentum as much as position, and it’s also a matchup that brings a bit of recent history with it: these sides drew 1-1 when they met in September.
The set-up hints at a fascinating clash of instincts. Derby are described as aggressive, direct and wide, with long balls, crosses and through balls all part of their attacking identity. Wrexham, by contrast, are labelled non-aggressive — but also very strong down the wings and very strong at creating chances using through balls. That’s not so much “soft” as “selective”. They can sit in their own half, wait for the right moment, then punch holes through you if you lose your shape. So yes, it’s Derby at home. But it won’t be a quiet Sunday.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Derby’s possible starting XI points strongly towards a back three: Zetterström; Langås, Sanderson, Clarke; Ward, Thompson, Adams, Elder, Clark; Brewster, Agyemang. With three centre-backs and wing-backs either side, it shapes as a 3-4-1-2 on paper, but the feel is more about how it plays: width from Ward and Elder, ball-winning and bite from Adams, and then a pair of forwards who can threaten in different ways.
The balance of that front two is what makes it interesting. Rhian Brewster offers mobility and combination play, while Patrick Agyemang has been productive in the league with six goals and three assists. Behind them, Bobby Clark is positioned to knit things together, the sort of player who can drift into pockets and either slip runners in or switch the point of attack if Wrexham slide across too early.
Wrexham’s possible XI mirrors the structure: Okonkwo; Scarr, Hyam, Doyle; Longman, Dobson, James, Thomason; Rathbone, O’Brien, Smith. Again, it reads like a back three with wing-backs, with George Dobson holding the midfield and George Thomason offering progression — and, notably, four assists in the league. Ahead of them, there’s a blend of runners and link players. Lewis O’Brien has three league goals, while Sam Smith is listed as part of the front line and offers a more direct threat.
The most immediate tactical implication is symmetry: two teams set up to match each other man-for-man across the pitch. That often comes down to details — who wins the duels, who times their runs, and who blinks first in the wide areas.
How the Match Could Be Played
With both sides set up in a similar shape, the wing-back lanes could become the main battleground. Derby’s style points to playing with width and attempting crosses often, and that suits a side with aerial strength listed as a major positive. Carlton Morris is Derby’s league top scorer with 10 goals and also leads them for aerials won at 6.8 per game, and even if he’s not named in the likely XI, the team profile still screams “we’ll put it in the mixer and back ourselves to compete.” That places a spotlight on the delivery from the flanks — Ward on one side, Elder on the other — and on whether Derby can turn wide possession into real penalty-box stress rather than hopeful punts.
Wrexham, meanwhile, are described as very strong attacking down the wings and very strong in aerial duels, with Kieffer Moore winning 7.1 aerials per game and scoring 10 league goals. Even though he isn’t included in the possible starting XI, that tells you something about the kind of physical contest Wrexham are comfortable playing. The presence of Scarr, Hyam and Doyle in the back three also suggests a unit built to defend the box and deal with crosses — but Wrexham’s weaknesses include defending against attacks down the wings and defending against long shots, so Derby’s wide play might not just be a stylistic preference; it could be a deliberate route to their best chances.
The other major theme is the through-ball threat. Derby’s style explicitly includes attempting through balls often, and Wrexham’s strengths include creating chances using through balls. That has the potential to make the middle of the pitch look deceptively calm… right up until it isn’t. If Clark can receive between Wrexham’s midfield and back line, one sharp pass can turn a slow spell into a sprint back towards goal. On the flip side, Wrexham have enough ball-playing in midfield with Dobson and Thomason to bait Derby’s press and then slip O’Brien or Smith into space if Derby step out too aggressively.
Tempo will matter. Derby are rated very weak at keeping possession of the ball and average only 41.3% possession in the Championship, so expecting them to dominate long spells of circulation would be wishful. Their best version of this game likely involves purposeful phases: win it, go forward early, force Wrexham into defending their box, and pin them back with repeat wide deliveries and second balls.
Wrexham are also described as weak at keeping possession, though they do carry a higher average of 45.9% possession in the league. That suggests they can have the ball a bit more than Derby, but still aren’t wedded to controlling every minute. Their “playing in their own half” tag hints at comfort in a lower block, and their “defending counter attacks” weakness warns that if they commit too many bodies forward at once, Derby can bite back quickly.
One more angle to keep in mind: discipline in dangerous areas. Derby are listed as weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas, while also being strong shooting from direct free kicks. That’s a slightly chaotic combination — a team capable of threatening from dead balls, but also capable of giving the opposition chances in similar situations. Wrexham, too, have set-piece potential through delivery and aerial presence, so free kicks and second-phase balls could quietly shape the flow.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Derby have scored 34 goals and conceded 33 in 25 Championship games. That near-even split fits a team that can look dangerous without always feeling settled. Wrexham have scored 36 and conceded 31 from the same number of matches, suggesting a slightly sturdier defensive base.
In chance volume, Wrexham take more shots: 10.9 per game in the league compared to Derby’s 9.4. That matters because it points to Wrexham being a touch more consistent at turning possession into attempts — useful in a game that might otherwise become a duel-heavy scrap. But Derby’s strengths include finishing scoring chances, and Wrexham’s weaknesses include stopping opponents from creating chances, so the raw shot count might not tell the full story if Derby’s best moments are cleaner.
Passing and possession lean Wrexham. They average 77.3% pass completion and 45.9% possession in the league, while Derby sit at 73.5% pass completion and 41.3% possession. That gap isn’t just cosmetic: it suggests Wrexham are more comfortable connecting short phases and moving the ball through midfield, whereas Derby are more likely to accept turnovers as a cost of being direct.
Set-piece and aerial numbers back up the expected style clash. Derby average 22.8 aerials won per match in the Championship, while Wrexham average 23.2. That’s a lot of first contacts, second contacts, and moments where structure goes out the window — exactly the kind of match where the calmest decision-maker in the chaos can tilt things.
And then there’s recent pattern. Derby have drawn three of their last six across all competitions, while Wrexham have won three of their last six across all leagues. Derby have scored in each of their last 15 Championship games. Wrexham have three consecutive Championship wins and are undefeated in 13 of their last 15 league games. Those runs don’t decide what happens at Pride Park, but they do frame it: Derby are finding ways to stay in games; Wrexham are finding ways to turn games into wins.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first “moment” to watch is the wing-back duel. If Ward and Elder can lock Wrexham’s wide players deep, Derby can turn the game into repeated box entries — not always pretty, but relentlessly wearing. If Wrexham’s wide outlets escape, Derby’s back three could be dragged into uncomfortable wide defending, and Derby’s listed weakness at defending attacks down the wings starts to feel relevant.
The second is the battle for the second ball. With both teams strong in aerial duels, a lot of attacking value may come not from the first header, but from who reacts quickest after it. That’s where players like Adams and Dobson can make themselves felt: reading the bounce, snapping into tackles, and turning loose scraps into sudden attacks.
The third is the “one pass” threat. Both sides are set up to play through balls often, and Wrexham’s strengths lean heavily into that kind of chance creation. If Clark or Thomason get time to lift their head, the match can change in a heartbeat — especially with runners around them.
What could go wrong with this read? A game mapped out as a wing-back war can be flipped by an early goal that forces one side to chase in a less controlled way. It can also swing on small moments: a deflection, a scrappy clearance that drops kindly, or a set-piece delivery that turns into a pinball sequence. In matches like this, the tidy plan is often only ever one miscontrol away from becoming a mad dash.
Best Bet for Derby County vs Wrexham
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Both Teams to Score
Derby County and Wrexham enter this Sunday clash separated by just two points in the Championship table, and the tactical profiles of both sides suggest a match where neither defense will have a quiet afternoon. Derby have demonstrated a remarkable consistency in front of goal, having found the net in each of their last 15 Championship games. This scoring streak highlights a direct and aggressive attacking identity that relies heavily on wide play and high-volume crossing. With a style that attempts through balls often, they are well-equipped to test a Wrexham defense that has shown susceptibility to conceding, despite their recent run of form.
Wrexham, sitting one place higher in 10th, arrive with considerable momentum and a distinct clinical edge. They have scored 36 goals this season—two more than Derby—and are coming off a statement away win at Blackburn. Their strength in creating chances via through balls matches up perfectly against a Derby side that is rated weak at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas. Wrexham’s ability to possess the ball slightly more than their opponents (45.9% compared to Derby’s 41.3%) and their higher volume of shots (10.9 per game) indicates they will create enough opportunities to maintain their scoring pace.
Furthermore, the previous meeting between these two earlier in the season resulted in a 1-1 draw, proving that they are capable of breaching each other’s lines. Derby’s defensive record of 33 goals conceded in 25 games shows they are prone to lapses, especially when facing teams strong in aerial duels and wing play like Wrexham. Given that both teams struggle to maintain long periods of possession, the game is likely to become a transition-heavy affair with frequent entries into both penalty areas. With Derby’s 15-game scoring run and Wrexham’s superior shot count and attacking strength, the most logical expectation is for both sides to find the back of the net.
What could go wrong?
The primary risk to this selection is a tactical stalemate where both managers, utilizing mirrored 3-4-1-2 or 3-5-2 formations, cancel each other out in the midfield and wing-back zones. If the match becomes overly physical due to the high volume of aerial duels—both sides average over 22 won per game—the quality of final balls could diminish. Additionally, an early defensive masterclass from either Zetterström or Okonkwo could stifle teams that, despite their scoring records, don’t always dominate possession.
Correct Score Lean: 1-1
The statistical parity between these two sides is striking. Both teams have played 25 matches, with Derby on 35 points and Wrexham on 37. Their goal differences are nearly identical, and their previous encounter ended in a 1-1 stalemate. Derby’s tendency to draw—three of their last six games—combined with Wrexham’s resilience on the road suggests another closely fought contest. Given that both sides utilize similar three-at-the-back systems and possess high aerial win rates, they are likely to neutralize each other’s primary threats, leading to a repeat of their September scoreline.
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