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Can Pride Park Tip the Balance Again? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Derby are seeking a third straight league win and have already beaten West Brom twice this season. With scoring form in 11 consecutive home games and West Brom suffering back-to-back defeats under new management, the Rams possess the momentum and clinical edge to secure three points at Pride Park.
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Derby’s consistent home scoring meets West Brom’s ability to create high shot volume. While the visitors often find the net through players like Price, their defensive vulnerabilities against width and clinical finishing favor a narrow Derby victory. A 2-1 scoreline reflects Derby’s superior conversion rate and West Brom’s recent struggles.
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Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion Predictions Predictions and Best Bets
Derby vs West Brom — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with implied probabilities based on current William Hill fractional odds.
Based on 7/5 and 7/4 pricing, the market identifies Derby as the marginal favourite at home, reflecting their scoring consistency at Pride Park.
With Derby scoring in 11 straight home games and WBA’s high shot volume, a 50% implied chance for both teams to score is a key market angle.
Cagey, low-margin scorelines carry the highest implied probability, with the 1-1 draw and narrow home/away wins priced as the most likely outcomes.
- Away-Day Specialists: Derby have taken 24 points from 14 away trips, a return that leaves them with the joint-best away record in the Championship and underlines their resilience on the road.
- Home Goals Keep Flowing: Derby have scored in each of their last 11 Championship home games, a streak stretching back to September that keeps Pride Park believing, even when results wobble.
- Volume vs Control: West Brom average 13.9 shots per game in the league compared to Derby’s 10, yet Derby’s sharper finishing has delivered 38 goals to West Brom’s 31.
Attacking Efficiency: Goals vs Volume
Comparison of goals scored against the average number of shots per game.
Derby show high efficiency, converting a lower volume of chances into a higher goal tally.
West Brom generate significantly more shots but have struggled with conversion rates.
Technical Control: Possession & Accuracy
A look at how both sides manage the ball during Championship fixtures.
Derby are comfortable without the ball, relying on aerial strength and transitions.
West Brom look to control the tempo, supported by a superior 82.2% pass accuracy.
Friday night football lands at Pride Park with two sides moving in different emotional directions. Derby County arrive with momentum, eyeing a third consecutive victory and sitting just two points off the playoff places. The Rams have shaken off an FA Cup setback to Leeds United and returned to league action with back-to-back wins, showing grit away from home and enough punch in the final third to keep pressure on the top six.
West Bromwich Albion, by contrast, are searching for lift-off under Eric Ramsay. His tenure has begun with back-to-back defeats, and confidence has been dented by recent heavy losses. This fixture offers a chance to reset. Kick-off is at 20:00, and the noise inside Pride Park will reflect a sense of unfinished business after Derby have already beaten West Brom twice this season across league and cup.
Team News & Lineups
Derby County – Possible XI
- Widell Zettstrom
- Ward, Langas, Forsyth, Elder
- Travis, Thompson
- Brereton Diaz, Bobby Clark, Blackett-Taylor
- Agyemang
West Bromwich Albion – Possible XI
- Griffiths
- Mepham, Phillips, Taylor
- Wallace, Bielik, Styles, Iling Junior
- Price, Johnston
- Heggebo
Implications
- Derby’s selection keeps pace and width high, with Brereton Diaz and Blackett-Taylor stretching play.
- West Brom’s shape points towards central overloads, asking Price and Johnston to link quickly with Heggebo.
- Derby’s consistency in selection contrasts with West Brom’s ongoing search for balance.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Championship) | Derby County | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| League Position | 10th | — |
| Games Played | 28 | 28 |
| Goals Scored | 38 | 31 |
| Shots per Game | 10.0 | 13.9 |
| Possession % | 41.9% | 51.7% |
| Pass Accuracy | 73.7% | 82.2% |
| Aerials Won | 22.3 | 19.4 |
The numbers sketch a clear picture. West Brom want the ball, circulate it cleanly, and shoot often. Derby are happier without dominance, leaning into direct play, aerial strength, and moments of individual quality. The clash is control versus incision.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Derby’s Direct Edge
John Eustace has built a side comfortable living in the in-between spaces. Derby play with width, attack down the left, and aren’t shy of long balls. That suits Patrick Agyemang, who leads the line with physicality and movement, and it brings Bobby Clark into dangerous pockets where second balls matter.
Derby’s strengths are clear. They finish chances well, create through individual skill, and compete aggressively in the air. Their weakness is possession. They don’t want long spells passing it sideways, and they can be vulnerable when asked to protect a lead. Expect Derby to start quickly, feed off the crowd, and look to pin West Brom’s back line with early deliveries.
West Brom’s Central Pressure
Eric Ramsay’s side lean into short passing and central attacks. West Brom take a lot of shots and can create chances, especially when Mikey Johnston and Isaac Price find rhythm between the lines. The issue has been efficiency. Finishing chances is a known problem, and individual errors have crept in at the worst moments.
Against a Derby side that defends the wings poorly and struggles against long shots, West Brom’s midfield runners become vital. Price, with six league goals, has the timing to exploit loose marking. Heggebo remains the focal point, tasked with occupying centre-backs and converting volume into something tangible.
Where It’s Won
The key duel sits wide. Derby attack with width and cross often, while West Brom are vulnerable against skillful players and through balls. If Brereton Diaz and Blackett-Taylor isolate full-backs early, Derby can force West Brom into uncomfortable defensive rotations.
Flip it the other way, and West Brom’s ability to sustain pressure could expose Derby’s tendency to foul in dangerous areas and their issues defending long shots. Set pieces and second phases loom large.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set Pieces: Both sides show strength from dead balls. First contact in the box will be crucial.
- Transitions: Derby thrive when the game opens up; West Brom must manage turnovers centrally.
- Discipline: Derby’s aggressive style risks fouls in shooting range, an area West Brom can punish.
What could go wrong?
If Derby fail to turn early pressure into goals, their struggle to protect leads and keep possession could invite sustained West Brom pressure. For the visitors, wasteful finishing or another individual error could swing momentum irreversibly in a hostile stadium.
Best Bet for Derby County vs West Brom
Can Derby County Make it Three in a Row Against the Slumping Baggies?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Form | Derby 2 wins in a row; WBA 2 losses | Back Derby |
| Efficiency | Derby 38 goals (10 shots); WBA 31 (13.9) | Home Goals |
| Scoring | Derby scored in 11 straight home games | Home to Score |
| Defense | Derby poor vs wings; WBA high shot volume | Both Teams to Score |
Derby County to Win
Derby County are in a position of strength heading into this Friday night clash. The Rams have secured two consecutive league victories, moving them within two points of the playoff positions. This momentum is backed by a psychological edge, as they have already defeated West Bromwich Albion twice this season across league and cup competitions. Pride Park has become a fortress for scoring, with the side netting in 11 consecutive home games since September.
The tactical matchup favors the home side’s clinical nature. While West Brom dominate possession with 51.7% and take significantly more shots per game (13.9 compared to Derby’s 10), they lack the finishing touch. Derby have outscored the visitors 38 to 31 this season despite having fewer opportunities. This means Derby are far more efficient with the ball and can punish a West Brom defense that has been prone to individual errors during their current two-game losing streak.
West Brom are currently in a period of transition under Eric Ramsay, and the lack of balance is evident. They circulate the ball well but struggle to defend against the direct play and width that Derby utilizes. With Brereton Diaz and Blackett-Taylor stretching the pitch, Derby can isolate West Brom’s full-backs and create high-quality chances for Patrick Agyemang. Given the contrasting form and Derby’s home scoring consistency, the Rams are the clear selection to take all three points.
What could go wrong? Derby have a documented struggle with protecting leads and keeping possession (averaging only 41.9%). If they fail to score during their initial burst of pressure, West Brom’s ability to sustain attacks and find runners like Isaac Price could eventually wear down the Rams’ defense, especially given Derby’s vulnerability to long shots and wing attacks.
Correct Score Lean
Derby County 2-1 West Brom
This scoreline reflects the statistical trends of both clubs. Derby have scored in 11 straight home matches and possess a superior goal-to-shot ratio, making two goals a reasonable expectation at Pride Park. Conversely, West Brom’s high volume of shots (13.9 per game) and Derby’s poor record of defending the wings suggest the visitors will likely find a breakthrough. West Brom’s midfield runners, particularly Price with six goals, are well-positioned to exploit Derby’s defensive lapses, but the visitors’ general inefficiency in front of goal will likely prevent them from securing a draw.
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