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Can Derby County overcome their Pride Park struggles to secure a vital win against a Swansea City side high on confidence? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Derby’s stats are compelling, with 74% of their league matches seeing both sides find the net. Swansea arrive in clinical form after scoring four in their last outing. With both defences showing vulnerability and a high crossing volume expected, both teams scoring looks highly plausible at Pride Park.
Read Rationale ▾
Derby struggle to convert home dominance into wins, while Swansea have drawn frequently on the road recently. Given Derby’s high BTTS rate and Swansea’s possession control, a scoring stalemate fits the tactical narrative. Both teams possess goal threats like Vipotnik and Agyemang but often lack the defensive bite to maintain leads.
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Pride Park gets another proper Championship test on Saturday, with Derby County and Swansea City both eyeing a shove up the playoff picture at 15:00. Derby sit 11th on 45 points, only two points off sixth, but the mood at home is edgy.
Derby vs Swansea — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets based on Pride Park tactical analysis.
Derby’s defensive combative profile and aerial dominance at home contrast with Swansea’s high possession away from home.
Derby have seen both teams score in 74% of their league matches, highlighting frequent goalmouth action.
Swansea’s possession dominance and Derby’s direct transitions often lead to competitive scoring draws at Pride Park.
Derby average over 13 fouls and nearly 3 yellow cards per match, indicating a highly disruptive defensive strategy.
Match Preview
Pride Park gets another proper Championship test on Saturday, with Derby County and Swansea City both eyeing a shove up the playoff picture at 15:00. Derby sit 11th on 45 points, only two points off sixth, but the mood at home is edgy: four wins from 16 at Pride Park is a stubborn anchor on their season.
Swansea arrive 15th with 42 points, just three back from Derby, and carrying a sharper recent edge—three wins in their last six league games, including a 4-0 demolition of Sheffield Wednesday last time out. And there’s a needle underneath this fixture too: Derby won 2-1 at Swansea on 25 November 2025, but Swansea have still taken four wins from the last six Championship meetings overall.
It’s set up as a playoff-race accelerator… or a wasted afternoon in the cold (5° in Derby).
Ball Control: Possession % Comparison
Swansea’s game model prioritises control, whereas Derby are more comfortable without the ball, focusing on direct transitions.
The Swans look to dominate the rhythm with an 80.2% pass accuracy rating across the season.
Derby opt for directness, reflected in their lower possession but higher aerial win rate of 21.6.
Discipline: Total Fouls Committed
A look at the combative nature of both sides, with Derby typically involved in more physical, stop-start encounters.
This high foul count has resulted in 81 yellow cards, indicating a defence that frequently halts play.
Swansea commit fewer fouls while maintaining a higher clean sheet count of 9 so far.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Derby County
- Lewis Travis – suspended (indirect card suspension, back 15.02.2026)
- Max Johnston – hamstring injury
- Jacob Widell Zetterström – ill
- Sam Szmodics – unknown injury
Probable Derby lineup:
Vickers; Ward, Batth, Clarke, Murkin; Ozoh, Fraulo; Brereton Diaz, Clark, Brewster; Agyemang
What it means: Travis being out strips bite from the middle, so Ozoh and Fraulo have to cover ground and play clean. Derby can’t afford cheap fouls either—avoiding fouling in dangerous areas is already a sore spot.
Swansea City
No listed injuries/suspensions provided.
Probable Swansea lineup:
Vigouroux; Galbraith, Cabango, Burgess, Tymon; Stamenic; Ronald, Franco, Cullen, Nunes; Vipotnik
What it means: Swansea’s shape looks built for control and chance volume—plenty of ball, plenty of touches in advanced areas, and a focal point in Zan Vipotnik.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (League) | Derby County | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 15th |
| Points | 45 | 42 |
| Games played | 31 | 31 |
| Goals scored | 45 | 38 |
| Shots per game | 10.0 | 12.5 |
| Possession % | 42.7% | 54.9% |
| Pass % | 74.6% | 80.2% |
| Aerials won | 21.6 | 18.5 |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 9 |
| Corners | 156 | 184 |
| Yellow cards | 81 | 70 |
| Fouls | 409 | 360 |
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Derby’s mission: make it uncomfortable, then strike
Derby’s profile is clear: long balls, width, crosses, and through balls—plus a tendency to spend phases in their own half before they jump. The big warning sign is possession: keeping the ball is a weakness, so trying to out-pass Swansea is a trap.
Instead, expect Derby to lean into what they do well—quick exits, direct play, and forcing Swansea’s defenders to defend facing their own goal. Patrick Agyemang (9 league goals) and Ben Brereton Diaz become crucial here: if Derby can pin Swansea back even for short bursts, they can turn territory into corners and second balls.
But Derby can’t gift Swansea set-piece chances in silly areas. “Avoiding fouling in dangerous areas” is a red flag, and Swansea will happily turn dead balls and recycled possession into pressure waves.
Swansea’s mission: dominate the ball, dominate the shot count
Swansea are built for control: possession football, short passes, through balls, and a real appetite for shooting—12.5 shots per game. They’re also flagged as very strong at creating long-shot opportunities, which matters because Derby are vulnerable to long shots and to attacks down the wings.
That combination points to a pattern: Swansea circulating the ball, pulling Derby side-to-side, then letting efforts fly when the block loosens. With Ronald, Franco, Cullen and Nunes around Vipotnik, there are bodies to attack second balls and rebounds too.
The risk for Swansea is that their own weak points mirror Derby’s attacking plan: they’re very weak defending against attacks down the wings, and they’re weak in aerial duels. If Derby can drag them wide and then deliver early, Swansea could be forced into last-ditch defending around their box.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set-piece temperature: Derby’s aggression is a double-edged sword—409 fouls and 81 yellows says they’ll bite, but it also says they can hand opponents cheap pressure.
- Wing battles, again and again: Derby’s crossing game vs Swansea’s vulnerability out wide; Swansea’s wing play vs Derby’s weakness defending wing attacks. Something gives.
- Volume shooting vs box defending: Swansea’s long-shot threat meets a Derby side vulnerable to efforts from range. Blocks and second balls could swing momentum quickly.
- Finisher spotlight: Zan Vipotnik (15 league goals) is the standout goal threat on the pitch, with Carlton Morris (10) and Patrick Agyemang (9) carrying Derby’s punch.
What could go wrong?
For Derby, it’s the familiar home story: good spells that don’t become goals, then one lapse and the afternoon turns frantic. For Swansea, it’s control without killer edge away from home—two wins in their last 11 away league matches—and the nagging danger that one floated ball, one lost duel, one loose second ball opens the door at the worst moment.
📊 Market Explainer
Both Teams To Score (BTTS)
This market requires both teams to find the net at least once during the 90 minutes. It is independent of the final result. Pros: High excitement as the bet can land at any time. Cons: One dominant defensive performance can ruin the selection.
Correct Score
Predicting the exact final scoreline. Pros: Significantly higher odds than match result markets. Cons: High volatility; a single late goal can result in a loss even if the tactical reading was correct.
🎯 Rationale for Pick 1: Both Teams To Score
The statistical evidence for goalmouth action at both ends is overwhelming. Derby County have seen both teams find the net in 74% of their Championship matches this season, a figure that highlights both their attacking threat and defensive vulnerabilities. Swansea City arrive at Pride Park having recently dismantled Sheffield Wednesday 4-0, showcasing a clinical edge that Derby’s backline will struggle to contain, especially with goalkeeper Widell Zetterström sidelined by illness.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators:
- Derby have scored 45 goals but conceded in the vast majority of home games.
- Swansea average 12.5 shots per game and are strong at creating long-shot opportunities.
- Derby are vulnerable to wing attacks, which is Swansea’s primary method of advancement.
Risk Factor: A low-possession Derby side might focus entirely on a deep block, which could stifle the game if Swansea fail to convert early dominance into a breakthrough.
🎯 Rationale for Pick 2: Correct Score 1-1
A 1-1 draw is the most logical outcome when analysing the clash of styles. Swansea dominate the ball with 54.9% possession but have struggled for away wins, securing only two in their last 11 road trips. Derby, despite their home frustration, are resilient and possess an aerial advantage that can exploit Swansea’s weakness in duels. With Derby averaging 1.45 goals per game and Swansea averaging 1.22, a single goal for each side fits the season trend.
Risk Factor: Derby’s high foul count (409) could lead to a red card or a penalty that disrupts the balance of a cagey draw.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Winning 21.6 duels/match. Direct threat from crosses against a Swansea side that is weak in the air.
Flagged as very weak defending attacks down the wings. Vulnerable to Derby’s crossing game.
🔍 Match Q&A
⊕ What does Both Teams To Score mean?
⊕ Why is BTTS likely in Derby vs Swansea?
⊕ How does the Correct Score market work?
⊕ What is the significance of Derby’s home form?
⊕ Who are the key players to watch for goals?
⊕ How do the teams’ possession stats differ?
⊕ What is the main risk for a draw prediction?
⊕ Can Swansea’s wing-play exploit Derby?
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