bet365
BetMGM
William Hill
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Can Hull City turn their New Year momentum into a top-two push against Stoke’s possession game? Read on for complete analysis and the best betting tips.
To use the Live Streaming service you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo location and live streaming rules apply.
Works worldwide • Email + on-site access • Instant unlock
▾
Middlesbrough are 2nd in the league and statistically superior in shot volume (14.1 vs 9.5) and possession. Derby are missing their top scorer (Morris), crippling their direct style. Boro won the reverse fixture recently and have the quality to edge a tight game.
▾
Boro haven't scored in three games, so a rout is unlikely. However, their defense is solid (25 conceded), and Derby lack their main threat. A single goal should be enough to decide a game between a possession side and a low-block team.
Readers’ Tip
Vote your pick — quick & anonymous
Terms & Conditions (tap to view)
Derby vs Middlesbrough Predictions and Best Bets
Derby vs Middlesbrough — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Despite a recent dry spell, Middlesbrough’s superior league position and underlying metrics make them favourites at Pride Park.
Recent low-scoring trends for Boro and Derby’s home resilience point towards a narrow away win or a low-scoring draw.
Markets are leaning towards a tighter game with Under 2.5 Goals slightly favoured, reflecting recent trends.
Morgan Whittaker (8 goals) is the danger man for Boro, while Agyemang carries Derby’s threat in the absence of Morris.
- Table contrast with similar goal tallies: Middlesbrough are 2nd with 43 points (33 scored, 25 conceded), while Derby are 14th with 32 points and a flat 33-33 record.
- Boro’s recent league blip in front of goal: Middlesbrough have failed to score in their last three Championship matches, and all three of those games finished under 2.5 goals.
- Derby’s recent grind for results: Derby have won just 1 of their last 7 Championship matches, and three of their last six league games ended 1-1 draws.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Game
Middlesbrough are one of the most active shooting teams in the league, significantly outpacing Derby in creating attempts.
Creating over 14 attempts per game underlines Boro’s ability to dominate territory and force defensive actions.
Derby rely on being clinical with fewer chances, averaging under 10 shots per game in the Championship.
Control vs Containment: Possession
The stylistic clash is clear: Boro look to control the ball, while Derby are comfortable conceding possession.
Ranked highly for possession, Boro aim to control the tempo and pin opponents back in their own half.
Derby have the lowest possession average in this matchup, preferring to play without the ball and strike on the break.
Pride Park on New Year’s Day has a habit of feeling bigger than the calendar suggests, and this one comes with a clear edge: Derby County begin 2026 at home to a Middlesbrough side sitting second in the Championship table. It’s a fixture with two very different motivations running underneath it. Boro are chasing at the sharp end, Derby are trying to build something steady from mid-table ground.
The table paints the contrast neatly. Middlesbrough are second with 43 points from 24 matches, having scored 33 and conceded 25. Derby are 14th with 32 points from 24, with a perfectly level goal difference: 33 for, 33 against. One side is collecting points with the automatic places in mind; the other is navigating the messy middle where one good run can change the mood and one poor run can drag you into a conversation you’d rather avoid.
Recent results, too, give this match a bit of narrative tension. Derby’s last six league games include three 1-1 draws — at home to Millwall and Portsmouth, and away at Birmingham — as well as a 3-0 win at Sheffield Wednesday. They’ve also lost twice to Leicester in that same stretch, including a 2-1 defeat on 29 December. Middlesbrough’s last six show a more lurching rhythm: big wins at Hull (4-1) and Charlton (2-1), a 3-1 home win over QPR, then a 2-0 defeat at Bristol City, a 0-0 draw at home to Blackburn, and a 1-0 home defeat to Hull on 29 December.
That recent Boro sequence matters because it feeds into one of the more eye-catching trends attached to this fixture: Middlesbrough have failed to score a single goal in their last three Championship games, and those same three matches have all come in under 2.5 goals. Derby, for their part, have won just one of their last seven Championship matches. Put those together and you get a contest where one team’s league position screams authority, while the recent run hints at a match that could be closer, scrappier and more awkward than the table might suggest.
The head-to-head adds another layer. On 29 November 2025, Middlesbrough beat Derby 2-1, coming from behind after Derby led 1-0 at half-time. More broadly across the last six meetings listed, Middlesbrough have three wins, Derby have two, with one draw. There’s enough in there to avoid any sense of inevitability, and enough to remind Derby that they’ve had their moments in this match-up.
This is also a clash of identities. Derby are described as aggressive, playing in their own half, with width, long balls, crosses and through balls, attacking down the left, and sticking with a consistent first eleven. Middlesbrough are described as possession-based with short passes, controlling the game in the opposition’s half, attempting through balls often, taking long shots, attacking down the right, using an offside trap, and being non-aggressive — with a note that opponents play aggressively against them. Even before you name a single player, that contrast suggests a match where Derby will try to make it physical and territorial, while Boro try to make it technical and positional.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Derby’s possible starting lineup is listed as: Widell Zetterstrom; Langas, Sanderson, Clarke; Ward, Thompson, Adams, Elder; Brereton Diaz, Agyemang; Brewster.
That selection hints strongly at a back three and wing-backs, with Elder on one side and Ward on the other, and a front line built around a central striker with two supporting attackers. It also dovetails with Derby’s formation summary, which shows 3-4-2-1 used in 10 Championship matches, returning a solid record of 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats with 16 scored and 11 conceded. The names in the XI fit that: three centre-backs, two wide players, two central midfielders, and two attacking midfielders behind the striker.
William Hill
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
BetMGM
Bet £10 Get £40 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
bet365
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Betfred
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Show Terms & Conditions
10bet
100% Up To £50 On First Deposit
Show Terms & Conditions
It’s also a lineup that leans into Derby’s stated style: width, crosses, and through balls. Ward has 5 assists in the league, Elder has 3 assists, and Agyemang has 6 goals and 3 assists, which points to a team that can create from wide areas and from the half-spaces rather than relying purely on one central creator.
However, Derby’s injury list dated 30/12/2025 includes C. Morris (leg injury), D. Ozoh (thigh problems), O. Beck (hamstring injury) and L. Travis (calf injury). That matters because Morris is Derby’s top scorer with 10 goals and also their standout aerial presence with 6.8 aerial duels won per game, yet he is not named in the possible starting XI. It also matters because Ozoh appears as a player in the squad list, but is listed as unavailable. Travis is another squad option, also listed as unavailable.
Middlesbrough’s possible starting lineup is listed as: Brynn; Brittain, Ayling, Targett, Bangura; Morris, Browne; Whittaker, Hackney, Burgzorg; Conway.
That looks like a back four with a double pivot, three attacking midfielders, and a central forward — a structure that matches Middlesbrough’s broader “possession football” profile and the emphasis on controlling the game in the opposition’s half. It’s also notable how much of Boro’s creative and progressive work could run through the names in that front four: Whittaker has 8 goals and 3 assists, Hackney has 3 goals and 5 assists, and Conway has 3 goals and 2 assists. Brittain, too, has 4 assists.
Boro’s own formation summary highlights 3-4-2-1 as a used shape (7 matches, 5 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat), but the listed XI here reads more like a back four. That’s not necessarily a contradiction — teams often switch between structures — but it does create uncertainty over precisely how Boro will line up out of possession: whether they hold a flat four or morph into a three in build-up with one full-back advancing and the other holding.
One more small quirk in the team news: Derby’s possible XI lists Brereton Diaz, while the Derby squad list includes Ben Brereton. That may be a naming variation within the same information set, but it does introduce a slight identity ambiguity that affects nothing tactically, yet matters for clean editorial precision.
How the Match Could Be Played
This match looks like it could be decided by who wins the argument about where football should be played.
Middlesbrough’s identity is clear: short passes, possession football, through balls, control in the opposition half, and a right-sided attacking emphasis. Their strengths align with that: very strong defending set pieces, strong creation through through balls and individual skill, strong shooting from direct free kicks, and strong protecting the lead. The weaknesses are equally clear: weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas, and very weak in aerial duels.
Derby, meanwhile, are set up to be awkward for that kind of team. Their strengths include strong aerial duels and strong stealing the ball from the opposition, and their style says they play in their own half, go long, cross often, and attempt through balls. They are also described as aggressive and consistent in selection. That combination tends to produce a very specific game plan against a possession-heavy side: sit in a compact shape, press in triggers rather than constantly, then break quickly and turn the match into a series of duels.
If Derby do go with a back three and wing-backs, the out-of-possession shape could become a 5-4-1 or a 5-2-2-1 depending on how the two attacking midfielders — Brereton Diaz and Agyemang in the listed XI — position themselves. That matters because it’s those two players who can either shut off passes into Hackney and Whittaker, or leave those lanes open and hope the back line can soak it up. Against a team that “attempt through balls often”, you don’t want to give the passer time to look up and pick out the run.
Derby’s wide areas look central to how they can hurt Boro. The style says attacking down the left and playing with width, and the lineup includes Elder as one of the wide players. Elder’s output supports that he can contribute in attack: 1 goal and 3 assists, with a healthy rating of 7.04. Ward on the other side has 5 assists, which is a clear marker of delivery or final ball quality from wide positions. If Derby can get those wing-backs advanced, they can ask Middlesbrough’s full-backs to defend deeper than they’d like, and that can cut off the “control in the opposition half” Boro aim for.
But there’s a risk in that approach. Push the wing-backs too high, lose the ball, and suddenly Boro’s strengths come roaring into view: through balls and individual skill in transition. Middlesbrough’s right-sided attacking tendency could mean Ward, in particular, has a lot of defensive work if Boro overload that flank with Brittain, Whittaker and support runners from midfield. That can become a nasty problem quickly: one wing-back pinned deep changes the entire Derby shape, and suddenly the back three are defending a back post cross with the opposite wing-back stranded too far away to help.
Derby’s own build-up route, based on their style tags, is likely to lean on long balls and crosses rather than trying to play through Boro’s midfield press. That feels especially relevant because Middlesbrough are flagged as very weak in aerial duels. Derby, by contrast, are strong in aerial duels. Even without Morris — and he is a huge part of Derby’s aerial profile — Derby still have players who win their share, and Agyemang’s physical profile in the squad list suggests he can compete. If Derby can turn the match into repeated aerial contests, they can pull Boro’s centre-backs into uncomfortable duels and win second balls in midfield.
That’s where the central midfield battle becomes crucial. Derby’s possible XI includes Adams and Thompson. Adams has a disciplinary profile that hints at how Derby play: 7 yellow cards, one of the highest in their squad list, fitting the “aggressive” descriptor. Derby’s weakness at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas also sits uncomfortably here: if Adams and company are constantly arriving late or stopping breaks, they might stack up free-kicks around their own box. And Middlesbrough are strong at shooting from direct free kicks. That is not a detail you want to keep testing.
From Boro’s perspective, the shape suggests a very specific attacking rhythm. Morris and Browne are listed as the deeper midfield pair. Hackney sits ahead, with Whittaker and Burgzorg either side, and Conway up top. Middlesbrough’s tendency to take long shots adds another layer: if Derby sit deep in a 5-4-1 and crowd the box, Boro may feel invited to shoot from range — and their style says they do exactly that. The question is whether those long shots are the first option or the consequence of Derby refusing to open central gaps.
Derby’s stated weakness of keeping possession being very weak is also relevant. If they can’t retain the ball after winning it, the match becomes a constant wave of Boro pressure: recycle, probe, recycle again. That’s when set pieces start to appear through attrition. Middlesbrough are very strong defending set pieces, which means Derby’s crossing and dead-ball approach may meet a brick wall at times. But Derby are also strong at shooting from direct free kicks, so if they can win fouls in the right areas, they have their own route to threat.
One intriguing tactical mirror is the “playing in their own half” tag on both teams. It suggests both are comfortable defending deeper than you might expect. That could lead to a slightly odd game where possession is controlled by Boro, but territorial risk is shared: Derby may not mind being without the ball, and Boro may not mind waiting. In that kind of match, the decisive moments often come from a mistake, a set piece, or a transition sparked by a loose pass.
The Numbers That Support the Story
Start with the table, because it frames the emotional temperature. Middlesbrough are second with 43 points from 24 matches, and Derby are 14th with 32 points from 24. That gap is real, but it’s not vast enough to make Derby irrelevant on the day. The goal numbers show Derby are balanced: 33 scored, 33 conceded, while Boro have 33 scored and 25 conceded, which suggests Boro are the tighter team defensively.
The stylistic numbers reinforce the possession-versus-duels storyline. Middlesbrough’s Championship possession is listed at 56.5% with an 83.9% pass completion, and another section shows 57% ball possession, 12,244 total passes, and 84% accurate. Derby’s corresponding numbers are lower: 41.7% Championship possession, 73.5% pass completion, and elsewhere 42% ball possession, 8,576 total passes, and 75% accuracy. That gap matters because it suggests Derby will not want a match decided by long spells of technical control. If Boro dominate the ball for extended periods, Derby’s best moments may be fewer — and that places a premium on making those moments count.
Shot volume tells a similar story. Middlesbrough average 14.1 shots per game in the Championship, while Derby average 9.5. That difference suggests Boro generate more attacking actions and more pressure. But the nature of those shots adds texture: Middlesbrough’s shot breakdown includes 41% outside the box, consistent with their “take long shots” style, while Derby are at 31% outside and 69% inside, implying Derby’s attempts are more often from closer range, perhaps as a result of crosses, second balls, and direct attacks.
Individual statistics underscore where each side’s threat comes from. Middlesbrough’s standout scorer in the list is Whittaker with 8 goals, backed by Hackney’s 5 assists and Brittain’s 4 assists. That points to a team where creative responsibility is shared, and where goals can come from multiple zones. Derby’s top scorer, Morris, has 10 goals, but he is listed as injured, so the burden in the likely XI shifts to Agyemang with 6 goals and 3 assists and Brewster with 2 goals and 1 assist, with support from wide delivery via Ward’s 5 assists.
Trends hint at why this match might not be a goal-fest. Middlesbrough have failed to score in their last three Championship games, and those games have all been under 2.5 goals. That dovetails with the match results: 0-0 v Blackburn and 0-1 v Hull in their most recent league outings, plus a 0-2 defeat at Bristol City. The reasons can vary — form, finishing, match state — but the practical implication is simple: if Boro want to turn possession into points, they need their attacking patterns to translate into clean chances rather than just control.
Derby’s own trend is about results more than goals: they’ve won just one of their last seven Championship matches. Their last six include three draws, which can be read in two ways. It can suggest resilience and competitiveness. It can also suggest a struggle to turn decent spells into wins. Either way, it shapes the likely match feel: Derby may be hard to put away, but they need to find a way to land a punch.
Set pieces remain a key statistical-adjacent battleground. Middlesbrough are very strong defending set pieces, while Derby are strong in aerial duels and strong at direct free kicks. That’s a classic clash of strengths: Derby looking to turn dead-ball moments into threat, Boro backing their organisation to withstand it — and then trying to punish Derby’s own weakness of fouling in dangerous areas by earning free kicks and long-shot chances around the box.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first moment is Derby’s first wave of aggression. Middlesbrough’s notes say opponents play aggressively against them, and Derby are explicitly aggressive in style. The early phases could set the tone: if Derby can rattle Boro’s build-up, force hurried passes, and win second balls, they can make the match feel like a Pride Park scrap rather than a technical exercise. If Middlesbrough ride it calmly and keep finding their midfield outlets, Derby’s press risks turning into a lot of running without reward.
The second moment is the aerial battle and what it produces next. Middlesbrough are very weak in aerial duels; Derby are strong in aerial duels. Even without Morris, that mismatch still matters. Long balls into the channels and early crosses into the box are not just “hope” in this context — they’re a deliberate way to exploit a stated vulnerability. The key is the second ball: win the header, then win the next bounce, and suddenly Derby can attack a defence that hasn’t set.
The third moment is the set-piece trade. Derby’s weakness at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas collides with Middlesbrough being strong at direct free kicks and taking long shots. If Derby concede needless free-kicks around the edge of the box, they give Boro a route to goal even if open-play chances are limited. At the other end, Derby’s ability to deliver through Ward and Elder, and their aerial threat profile, can make corners and wide free-kicks feel like genuine opportunities — but Middlesbrough being very strong at defending set pieces suggests Derby may need variety and precision rather than simply lumping it into the same zone repeatedly.
The fourth moment is the through-ball lane. Both teams attempt through balls often, but Middlesbrough are explicitly strong at creating chances using through balls and individual skill. If Derby’s wing-backs are caught high, or if the midfield loses compactness, Boro can play straight through the line into runners from Whittaker, Burgzorg or Conway. That’s where the match can turn quickly: one pass, one run, one foul, one free-kick in a dangerous area.
The fifth moment is the long-shot temptation. Middlesbrough’s style includes taking long shots. Derby’s defensive numbers in this pack aren’t tagged as particularly weak or strong in that area, but the match context suggests Boro might be pushed into shooting from range if Derby set up with a deep back five and deny central runs. If that happens, the game becomes a test of shot selection and rebounds — and those rebounds often lead to corners and the set-piece loop returns again.
What could go wrong with this read? The obvious answer is that football doesn’t always respect the neat logic of styles. Derby might decide they want more of the ball than their “very weak” possession tag suggests and surprise Boro with longer spells of control. Middlesbrough might choose to be more direct than expected to avoid Derby’s pressing triggers. And if an early goal arrives — whether from a set piece, a long shot, or a defensive mistake — the whole match state can flip. The team behind takes risks; the team ahead protects space. Suddenly the pre-match tactical map is torn up and you’re dealing with momentum, nerves and the strange gravity of the first day of the year.
Best Bet for Derby vs Middlesbrough
Works worldwide • Email + on-site access • Instant unlock
Middlesbrough to Win
The case for Middlesbrough centers on the sharp contrast in quality and league trajectory between the two sides. Middlesbrough sit second in the Championship, firmly in the hunt for automatic promotion with 43 points from 24 games. In comparison, Derby languish in 14th place, eleven points adrift. While recent results for Boro have been inconsistent (including a run of three games without a goal), their underlying metrics remain superior. They average 14.1 shots per game compared to Derby’s 9.5, indicating they consistently create more danger and pressure on opponents.
Tactically, this matchup favors the visitors. Derby are explicitly listed as “very weak” at keeping possession, while Middlesbrough are a possession-based side described as “strong at creating chances using through balls and individual skill.” If Derby cannot hold onto the ball, they invite Boro’s talented attacking midfielders—like Morgan Whittaker (8 goals) and Hayden Hackney (5 assists)—to dictate the game in the final third. Furthermore, Derby’s injury list is significant: their top scorer and main aerial threat, C. Morris (10 goals, 6.8 aerials won/game), is unavailable. Without him, Derby lose their primary out-ball, undermining their strategy of playing long balls and crosses to bypass Boro’s press.
Historically, Boro have the edge, having beaten Derby 2-1 as recently as late November. With Derby missing key personnel and statistically creating far less threat, Middlesbrough’s superior quality should eventually tell, allowing them to break their mini-scoring drought and secure three vital points.
What could go wrong Middlesbrough’s recent inability to score (three straight blanks) is a genuine concern. If their finishing woes continue, Derby’s compact, aggressive style could frustrate them. Derby are strong in aerial duels even without Morris, while Boro are rated “very weak” in that area. If the Rams turn this into a physical scrap full of long throws and set-pieces, they could snatch a goal against the run of play and sit deep to protect it—something Boro have struggled to break down recently.
Correct score lean
Middlesbrough 1-0 Given Middlesbrough’s recent scoring struggles and the likelihood of a tight, scrappy contest, a narrow victory is the most probable outcome. Boro have the quality to find one moment of magic through Whittaker or Conway, but Derby’s defensive resilience (33 goals conceded in 24 games is respectable) suggests they won’t be blown away. The “Under 2.5 Goals” trend is strong for Boro (last three games), making a low-scoring away win the smart play.
Selected Bookmakers Offers
| |
New cust. Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on e-sports & non UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply. | |
| |
Open Account Offer - New Customers only. Bet £10 and get £30 in Free Bets when you join bet365. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value settle. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs , time limits & exclusions apply. Registration Required. #Ad. 18+ Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+. Play Safe. From 00:01 on 18.10.2022. £30 bonus. New customers only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility exclusions & T&Cs Apply. | |
| |
New cust only. Opt-in required. Deposit & place a bet within 7 days and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater to be credited with 3 x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 horse racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 football. Free Bets cannot be used on e-sports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+. T&Cs apply. Acca Club: Available to new & existing customers. 3 or more selections. Min Odds: 3/10 (1.3) per leg. Max stake: £500. Max Winnings: £200,000 per boost. Profit Boost amounts vary. Horse Racing, Greyhounds & Trotting excluded. Exclusions apply. Full T&C’s apply. 18+ GambleAware.org. | |
 | |
New members only. £10+ bet on sports (ex. Virtuals) 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days; £20 use on sportsbook, £10 on Bet Builder. Stake not returned. T&Cs.+ deposit exclusions apply #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New bettors. Select bonus at signup or use code SPORT. Wager deposit & bonus 8x. Max qualifying bet = bonus. Valid 60 days. Odds, bet & payment limits apply. T&Cs Apply; 18+ | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
New customers only, 18+. Min deposit £10. Place a £50 bet on any sport at 2.0+ to qualify for £25 in free bets and 10 Free Spins. Free Bets and Spins valid 7 days. £0.10 Free Spins. T&Cs apply. Please bet responsibly. #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
| |
New members only. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals), placed & settled at 1.5 min odds in 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days, use on sportsbook only (ex. virtuals), stakes not returned. T&Cs Apply and deposit exclusions apply. Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
 | |
18+ New customers only. Opt in, and bet £10 on football markets (odds 2.00+). No cash out. Get 6x£5 football free bets at specified odds for set markets, which expire after 7 days. Offer valid from 12:00 UK Time on 25/08/2023. Card payments only. T&Cs Apply | gambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly #Ad. 18+Only, gambleaware.org | |
