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Can Blackburn’s Ewood Park pressure game disrupt Wrexham’s play-off chase? Read on for complete analysis and the best betting tips.
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Blackburn have drawn two of their last three games 0-0 and have kept three straight clean sheets, proving they can frustrate opponents. Wrexham have drawn four of their last six listed away matches, including a recent 1-1 against similar opposition. The styles—Blackburn’s possession versus Wrexham’s direct counter-attack—suggest a tight contest where neither side fully dominates.
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The previous meeting ended 1-1, and Wrexham have recorded 1-1 draws in two of their last six away games. Blackburn’s defense is improved, but Wrexham’s attack (1.54 goals/game) is strong enough to score once. It aligns with the main draw tip while acknowledging both teams have goal threats.
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Blackburn Rovers vs Wrexham Predictions and Best Bets
Blackburn vs Wrexham — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Blackburn are slight favourites at Evens, but the odds suggest a tightly contested affair at Ewood Park.
Bookmakers lean towards a tighter game (Under 2.5), aligning with Blackburn’s recent string of clean sheets.
Yuki Ohashi leads the line and the market for Blackburn, with Todd Cantwell heavily fancied to contribute goal involvement.
- Moore as the match’s reference point: Kieffer Moore has 10 Championship goals and wins 7.1 aerial duels per game, shaping Wrexham’s most reliable route into the final third.
- Blackburn’s output versus Wrexham’s: Blackburn have 22 goals in 23 Championship matches, while Wrexham have 34 in 24; it’s a clash between tighter margins and louder scorelines.
- Shot profiles hint at inside-the-box danger: Blackburn average 12.33 shots per game with 66% inside the box, while Wrexham average 11.5 with 69% inside the box, keeping penalty-area defending central.
Match Tempo: Average Goals per League Game
Blackburn’s matches have been tight affairs (approx 2 goals/game), whereas Wrexham’s fixtures average closer to 3 goals.
Blackburn games have been low-scoring recently, with three consecutive clean sheets driving this average down.
Wrexham’s recent form (including a 5-3 win) highlights a tendency for their matches to break open at both ends.
Attacking Intent: Shots per Game
Despite their lower goal output, Blackburn actually create a slightly higher volume of shots than their opponents.
Blackburn edge the shooting volume with over 12 attempts per game, suggesting they can create pressure despite their defensive setup.
Wrexham are only slightly behind in volume but have been more clinical in converting their chances into goals.
Wrexham’s push for the Championship play-offs rolls on with a Thursday night trip to Ewood Park, where Blackburn Rovers will be desperate to make home advantage feel like home advantage again.
The table tells you why the mood will be different in the two dressing rooms. Wrexham arrive 11th, four points off sixth, with 34 points from 24 games and a goal difference of +3 (34 for, 31 against). Blackburn are 19th on 27 points from 23 games, with a -4 goal difference (22 for, 26 against), five points clear of the relegation zone and still close enough to it to make every mistake feel louder than it should.
The recent results suggest a game with a few different gears. Blackburn have been stubborn lately: 0-0 at Middlesbrough, 0-0 at Sheffield Wednesday, and a 2-0 home win over Millwall in the last three, plus 1-1 draws with Ipswich and Oxford either side of a 2-1 defeat at Portsmouth. Wrexham’s December has been more dramatic: a 5-3 win over Sheffield United followed by a 2-1 win over Preston, but also a 2-2 draw with Watford and away defeats at Hull (2-0) and Swansea (2-1), with another 1-1 at Preston earlier in the month.
There’s also a recent reference point between these two: on 29 November 2025, they drew 1-1 at Wrexham, with Blackburn leading 1-0 at half-time. Not definitive, but fresh enough to put a little edge on the tactical chess, especially with both sides’ profiles leaning into the same themes: width, crossing, and how well each team copes when the ball goes missing.
Ewood Park is listed at 4°, which feels about right for a New Year’s Day evening game that could decide whether this becomes a calm mid-table January for Blackburn or a tense one, and whether Wrexham can keep nudging the play-off door without having to kick it down.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Blackburn’s possible starting XI is named as: Pears; Miller, McLoughlin, Pratt; Litherland, Tronstad, Baradji, Hedges; Cantwell; Ohashi, Henriksson. On paper, that reads like a back three with wing-backs, a three-man midfield line, a No.10, and a front two — the same broad skeleton reflected in Blackburn’s formation summary that shows 3412 as their most-used Championship shape (14 matches).
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If that’s the plan, the balance is clear. The width comes from the wing-back line — Litherland and Hedges in those wide lanes — while the central platform is Tronstad with Baradji. Cantwell sits in that free role behind the forwards, with Ohashi and Henriksson tasked with turning territory into actual penalty-box moments.
Wrexham’s possible starting XI is named as: Okonkwo; Cleworth, Hyam, Doyle; Longman, James, Sheaf, Thomason; Windass, Moore, Broadhead. That reads like a back three with wing-backs again, a three across midfield, and then a front three that can easily become a front two plus a runner depending on what the game demands.
The named personnel also hints at Wrexham’s main threats arriving in a couple of different ways. Kieffer Moore is the obvious focal point: 10 Championship goals, and a huge 7.1 aerials won per game, which is not a stylistic flourish — it’s a whole attacking route. Windass (7 goals, 3 assists) and Broadhead (4 goals, 2 assists) give Wrexham players who can arrive around Moore rather than just underneath him, while Thomason’s 4 assists from midfield offers another supply line that doesn’t rely on the same pass every time.
The defensive shape is interesting too. Dominic Hyam is named in Wrexham’s back line, and he has also appeared in Blackburn’s squad list, which adds a neat layer to the individual match-ups at the heart of the pitch — especially in a game where set pieces, second balls and aerial duels are likely to be loud, repetitive conversations.
How the Match Could Be Played
This has the feel of a contest where both teams’ preferred methods could collide rather than cancel each other out. Blackburn’s listed style points to playing with width, attempting crosses often, controlling the game in the opposition’s half, and attacking down the left. Wrexham are also described as playing with width, attempting through balls often, and playing in their own half with a non-aggressive approach.
Put those together and you can imagine a familiar rhythm: Blackburn trying to pin Wrexham back through sustained territory and wide delivery; Wrexham accepting spells without the ball and then trying to turn regains into quick, direct progress — either with a through ball into a runner, or by using Moore as the first contact and building from there.
The wide areas are the obvious battleground. Blackburn are explicitly strong at stealing the ball from the opposition and defending set pieces, but they’re also listed as weak at keeping possession of the ball and defending counter-attacks, with an additional weakness in avoiding fouls in dangerous areas. That combination can create a specific kind of match: a team that wants to play high and wide, but can be pulled open by one good transition and can then compound it by giving away a cheap free-kick when the recovery sprint turns into a clip of the heels.
Wrexham’s weaknesses map neatly onto that same danger zone, just from the other side. They’re listed as weak at stopping opponents from creating chances, weak at defending counter-attacks, weak at defending against attacks down the wings, and very weak at defending against long shots and against skilful players. If Blackburn can keep Cantwell on the ball in those half-spaces, and if they can build enough pressure to force clearances rather than controlled exits, then those second balls outside the box become tempting: it’s where “long shot” vulnerability becomes relevant, and where a game can flip without a team needing to carve through a back line.
But Wrexham have their own blunt instruments, and they’re not subtle. They’re described as very strong in aerial duels, very strong attacking down the wings, and very strong at creating chances using through balls. That suggests a two-lane threat: deliver into Moore early and often when the game is stretched, and try to slip runners beyond Blackburn when Blackburn’s wing-backs are high and their central defenders are forced to defend while facing their own goal.
You can also see how the likely shapes might influence pressing and build-up. Blackburn’s 3-4-1-2 shape naturally places two forwards on the first line, which can make it easier to press a back three by going man-for-man across the first build-out line. If Ohashi and Henriksson step onto Wrexham’s outside centre-backs, it can encourage Wrexham to go over the press rather than through it — and that’s where Moore’s aerial volume becomes more than a statistic. If Wrexham choose to miss out the midfield line and hit Moore directly, then the game becomes about the bounce: can Windass and Broadhead collect the second ball, can Thomason arrive to keep attacks alive, and can Blackburn’s midfielders win the scrappy stuff that stops Wrexham from turning a long pass into a 20-second spell of chaos?
Conversely, if Wrexham sit in their own half as their style suggests, Blackburn may get the kind of platform that makes their crossing game repeatable. The key question then becomes less “can Blackburn cross?” and more “what happens after the first contact?” Wrexham have strengths in aerial duels — and Moore’s numbers underline that the team is comfortable living in the air — but defending a cross is different from clearing a cross. If Blackburn can win second balls and recycle quickly, they can keep Wrexham pinned, force wing-backs deeper, and turn the match into repeated waves. That’s the kind of pattern where a No.10 like Cantwell becomes pivotal, because he’s the one who can change the angle, slip a pass into a runner, or simply draw a foul in a dangerous zone when defenders are stepping out in frustration.
There’s also a slightly mischievous sub-plot in the way both teams are described as weak at keeping possession. Blackburn’s overall possession is listed at 49.3% in the Championship, while Wrexham’s is 45.8%. That doesn’t automatically mean the ball will be ping-ponging around like a warm-up drill gone wrong, but it does suggest neither side will mind if the match becomes about territory, duels and the next action rather than long sequences of control.
The final piece is set pieces and discipline. Blackburn are listed as strong at defending set pieces, but weak at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas. Wrexham have a clear aerial edge in their personnel — Moore’s 7.1 aerials won per game stands out in the entire match-up — so any cheap free-kicks into the channel, or corners conceded under pressure, are invitations to turn a spell of defending into a major moment. If Blackburn’s recent run of clean sheets in their last three games is to continue, they’ll need to be controlled in those moments where a tired recovery becomes a needless foul.
The Numbers That Support the Story
Start with the big-picture output. Blackburn have 22 goals in 23 Championship matches, which works out at 0.96 per game in the broader match totals shown, while conceding 28 (1.17 per game). Wrexham have 34 goals in 24 Championship matches, and the broader match totals shown list 43 scored across their played games set, at 1.54 per game, with 38 conceded (1.36 per game). In plain terms: Blackburn games have skewed tight, Wrexham games have skewed louder.
You can see that contrast in the recent scorelines. Blackburn have two straight 0-0 draws and have kept three consecutive clean sheets in their last three games in all competitions, while Wrexham’s last four Championship matches are all listed as over 2.5 goals. That’s not just trivia — it’s a clue about the tug-of-war. Blackburn will want the match to look like their December: low concession, controlled zones, and moments rather than mayhem. Wrexham have recently lived in the opposite.
The shooting and passing profiles underline why the match might never fully settle. Blackburn’s total shots are listed as 296, averaging 12.33 per game, with 29% on target and 45% off target, and 66% of shots taken inside the box. Wrexham’s totals show 322 shots, 11.5 per game, with 35% on target and 37% off target, and 69% inside the box. That suggests both sides can get into decent shooting areas, with Wrexham landing a slightly higher share of shots on target. If the game becomes transition-heavy, those inside-the-box shares become important because it hints at teams getting into the kind of zones where a single pass or deflection can create a big chance.
Now zoom into the key individuals who shape those patterns. For Blackburn, Todd Cantwell’s season line is eye-catching: 4 goals and 1 assist in 11(2) appearances, with a 7.24 rating and 1.9 shots per game. That profile screams “high involvement,” and it matters in a match-up where Wrexham are listed as very weak at defending against skilful players. If Cantwell gets turned and running at a back line that’s set to defend deep, he can force decisions — and decisions create either shots, cut-backs, or fouls.
Up front, Yuki Ohashi has 6 goals and 1 assist in 21(2) appearances, with 2.3 shots per game. That’s a forward who gets volume, and in a 3-4-1-2, those shots often come from the patterns: cross, second ball, quick combination, or a pass slid into the channel.
For Wrexham, Moore’s output is the kind you can build a whole plan around: 10 goals, 2 assists, 2.4 shots per game, and those 7.1 aerials won. It’s not only that he wins headers; it’s that he creates a consistent platform for territory and pressure. If Blackburn are weak at defending counter-attacks, the quickest counter-attack can sometimes be the simplest: win the first ball, win the second ball, then play the runner early. Windass’s own line — 7 goals and 3 assists, with 1.7 shots per game and an 80.8% pass completion — suggests he can be both runner and connector depending on where the match needs him.
Team-level discipline also matters because it shapes stoppages and set pieces. Blackburn’s disciplinary line lists 47 yellow cards across their played games set (1.96 per game), and 262 fouls (10.92 per game). Wrexham show 41 yellow cards (1.46 per game) and 253 fouls (9.04 per game). If Blackburn are already flagged as weak at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas, that higher foul volume adds context: there’s a scenario where Blackburn are forced into repeated defensive transitions and end up giving Wrexham the kind of deliveries Moore thrives on.
Finally, the away trend is hard to ignore: Wrexham’s last six away matches listed include four draws — Ipswich 0-0, Portsmouth 0-0, Middlesbrough 1-1, Preston 1-1 — plus defeats at Hull and Swansea. That pattern can shape approach as much as any tactical board: if Wrexham are comfortable absorbing and then taking what’s there, it can become a game of patience for Blackburn, and a game of timing for Wrexham.
Key “Moments” to Watch
There’s a particular kind of match that 3-4-1-2 versus a back-three system can create: a lot of football happens in the same corridors, and then one adjustment — a wing-back stepping higher, a midfielder jumping onto a second ball, a centre-half getting dragged out — suddenly turns into a clear sight of goal.
The first “moment” is likely to be about second balls rather than first actions. If Blackburn commit to width and crosses, Wrexham’s ability in aerial duels can deal with the initial contact — but the danger is what happens next. Blackburn’s style of controlling the game in the opposition’s half depends on sustaining attacks, not just launching them. If Tronstad and Baradji can lock onto the loose balls around the edge of the box, Blackburn can keep the pressure on and turn half-chances into a sequence of chances. If Sheaf and Thomason can get there first, Wrexham can flip the pitch quickly and ask Blackburn’s back line to defend while retreating.
The second “moment” is the Moore battle: not just Moore versus a centre-half, but Moore versus the whole defensive structure. If Moore pins a defender and wins the first contact, Windass and Broadhead become much more dangerous because they can arrive on the bounce rather than having to create from a standing start. If Blackburn can stop the supply early — by pressing the wing-backs, forcing Wrexham into rushed clearances, or simply winning the first header — then Wrexham’s most direct route becomes less reliable, and the match shifts toward Blackburn’s territory game.
The third “moment” is the Cantwell zone. Blackburn’s No.10 role is often where a compact back three can be hurt — between midfield and defence, just off the shoulder of the central midfielder, where a half-turn forces a centre-back to step out and leaves a pocket behind. Wrexham’s listed struggles against skilful players and long shots make that area doubly important: even when a pass isn’t on, the act of carrying the ball there can force a foul, a deflection, or a shot that rebounds into a scramble.
The fourth “moment” is discipline around the box. Blackburn’s combination of set-piece defensive strength and a tendency to give away dangerous fouls sets up an odd tension: they might defend corners well, but still offer Wrexham repeated delivery situations via free-kicks and throw-ins that become quasi-corners. Wrexham’s aerial profile — led by Moore — makes any stoppage in a crossing position feel significant, especially if the game is tight late on.
What could go wrong with this read? Plenty. If Blackburn’s recent clean-sheet run turns into overconfidence and they push too many bodies ahead of the ball, one broken press can turn into a straight run at their back line — exactly the scenario their own weaknesses warn about. If Wrexham’s wide defending issues show up early, Blackburn may find a steady stream of crossing chances and turn the match into a siege. And if the game becomes defined by small incidents — a ricochet in the six-yard box, a mistimed challenge, a keeper’s decision under pressure — then all the tidy patterns can get blown away by fine margins.
Best Bet for Blackburn Rovers vs Wrexham
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The Draw
Blackburn Rovers enter this contest having discovered a newfound resilience that has made them incredibly difficult to break down, while Wrexham’s travels have frequently ended in stalemate. The most compelling evidence for a deadlock lies in the recent patterns established by both sides. Blackburn have drawn two of their last three fixtures 0-0, prioritizing defensive solidity to arrest their slide down the table. This shift in mentality has resulted in three consecutive clean sheets, suggesting that the open, expansive game Wrexham might prefer will be denied to them at Ewood Park.
Wrexham’s own away form mirrors this tendency toward close-fought contests. Among their last six listed away matches, four have ended in draws, including goalless stalemates at Ipswich and Portsmouth and 1-1 scorelines at Middlesbrough and Preston. While their overall goal output is high, their ability to dominate on the road has been tempered by an inability to turn one point into three against stubborn opposition. The tactical matchup further supports a tight affair: Blackburn’s possession-based style (49.3%) often lacks the cutting edge to punish teams deep, while Wrexham’s lower possession average (45.8%) indicates they are comfortable sitting back and absorbing pressure.
The previous meeting between these two—a 1-1 draw in late November—serves as a relevant baseline. Both teams possess clear strengths that cancel each other out: Blackburn’s width and territory control versus Wrexham’s aerial dominance and transition threat. With Blackburn desperate to maintain their defensive improvements and Wrexham consistently settling for points away from home, a low-scoring draw appears the most logical outcome rooted in the current data.
What could go wrong The primary risk to this selection is Wrexham’s sheer firepower overwhelming Blackburn’s defensive structure early on. Wrexham have scored 34 goals this season and their last four Championship games have all seen over 2.5 goals. If Kieffer Moore dominates the aerial battle against Blackburn’s back three, or if Todd Cantwell unlocks Wrexham’s defense—which is listed as weak against skilful players—the game could open up quickly, abandoning the cautious rhythm that leads to a draw.
Correct score lean
1-1 Draw This scoreline perfectly balances the conflicting trends: Blackburn’s recent defensive solidity against Wrexham’s consistent attacking output. While Blackburn have kept three straight clean sheets, Wrexham average 1.54 goals per game and possess a distinct aerial threat in Kieffer Moore that can undo a shutout. Conversely, Blackburn’s home advantage and desperate need for points should see them find the net against a Wrexham defense that concedes 1.36 goals per game. Given the recent 1-1 head-to-head and Wrexham’s habit of 1-1 away draws, this is a statistically coherent choice.
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