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Can Birmingham’s patient approach finally click against Eustace’s stubborn Derby? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Birmingham City’s patient but often slow build-up play (56% possession) is likely to meet a stubborn resistance from a naturally defensive Derby County. Derby are comfortable defending deep and winning aerial battles (23.5 per game), which should limit the number of high-quality chances created by the hosts. With Birmingham missing key attacking width due to injuries and Derby preferring a low-volume shooting approach (9.33 shots per game), the match is expected to be a cagey affair where goals are at a premium.
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Both teams are separated by just two points in the league standings and possess nearly identical goal-scoring and defensive records. Birmingham’s home dominance and possession should lead to a goal, but Derby’s impressive record of scoring in 92% of their matches suggests they will find a response. Given the "naturally defensive" setup of the visitors and the "deliberate" nature of the hosts' attack, a 1-1 scoreline reflects the high probability of a stalemate between two evenly matched sides.
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Birmingham vs Derby Predictions and Best Bets
Birmingham vs Derby — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Market pricing suggests Birmingham City are the expected victors at St. Andrew’s, though Derby’s resilient form makes the draw a significant factor.
A tight encounter is anticipated, with low-scoring results and the 1-1 stalemate appearing as high-probability outcomes.
Analysis suggests a high likelihood of a low-scoring game, with Under 2.5 goals strongly favoured by the current pricing.
- Derby’s resilience sets the tone: they’ve suffered just three defeats in their last 12 Championship matches, arriving after a 1-1 draw with Portsmouth that kept momentum intact.
- Birmingham’s possession game is clear on paper: 56% average possession with 81% passing accuracy and 449 passes per game, but turning that control into decisive chances is the test.
- Home comfort versus league history: Birmingham are unbeaten in 36 of their last 40 home games in all competitions, yet they’ve beaten Derby in only three of the last 18 league meetings.
Tactical Identity: Possession Averages
The contrast in playing styles is evident in the possession numbers, with one side dictating play and the other absorbing pressure.
A high pass completion rate of 81% supports a patient build-up approach.
Comfortable playing without the ball, focusing on defensive organisation.
Physical Duels: Aerials Won
Success in the air can be a key indicator of defensive resilience and efficiency at set-pieces.
Rank lower in aerial contests, preferring to keep the ball on the deck.
The highest aerial success suggests a strong presence in both boxes.
Boxing Day at St Andrew’s has a habit of feeling like a hinge point in a season, and Birmingham City could do with this one swinging their way. Derby County arrive with a bit of grit in their pockets and, under John Eustace, have looked a side built to stay in games rather than turn them into chaos. It’s a meeting of two teams sat close enough in the table to make every moment feel like a tiny referendum on progress: Birmingham are 14th with 29 points, Derby 12th with 31.
The recent mood music is different, though. Derby come into the match on the back of a 1-1 draw with Portsmouth at Pride Park, and that point mattered because it kept their broader run ticking along: just three defeats in their last 12 Championship matches. Birmingham’s story is more complicated. There’s been enough about their play to suggest purpose — but also frustration: a slow and deliberate approach that, at the moment, isn’t delivering enough punch.
All of which points towards a contest that could be decided in small pockets of the pitch, by one sharp passage rather than a full-throttle shoot-out. Birmingham will want a flourish to close the calendar year; Derby will fancy their chances of making it awkward, and then making it count.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Birmingham have three notable absences or doubts listed. Ethan Laird is out with a hamstring injury, Bright Osayi-Samuel is away after being called up to a national team until 19 January 2026, and Marvin Ducksch is flagged with a fitness issue.
Even without spelling out a full XI, that cluster of names hints at where Birmingham’s balance might be affected. Laird and Osayi-Samuel are both listed as defenders, and both are players who can operate on the right side of the pitch. Remove that sort of option and you inevitably narrow the ways you can build attacks and cover transitions, especially against a side described as naturally defensive. Ducksch’s fitness status matters for different reasons: he’s a forward option who has three goals in the Championship despite limited minutes, and any uncertainty there can reduce the variety Birmingham have when they’re trying to turn control into goals.
Derby’s selection issues aren’t detailed here, but their general identity is. Under Eustace, they’re described as naturally defensive, and recent results back the picture of a team comfortable playing within tight margins.
How the Match Could Be Played
The broad tactical tension is pretty clear: Birmingham want to have the ball and dictate the rhythm, while Derby look more comfortable turning the game into a series of stubborn phases.
Birmingham’s season numbers sketch a side that spends plenty of time on the ball. They average 56% possession, complete passes at an 81% success rate, and play around 449 passes per game. That’s the profile of a team that tries to move opponents around and create space through patient circulation. The problem, as the tone around them suggests, is that the style has been “slow and deliberate” and, right now, “ineffective”. Patient can be purposeful; it can also become predictable if the forward options don’t stretch the pitch or if the final action lacks snap.
Derby, by contrast, look like a team happy to live without the ball. Their possession average is 42%, with around 330 passes per game at a 75% completion rate. That doesn’t automatically mean long-ball chaos — it can also mean shorter, safer sequences in deeper areas, then direct movement when the moment is right. Their shot volume supports the idea of a more selective attacking approach: 9.33 shots per game to Birmingham’s 13.79.
So where does this leave the match? If Birmingham control territory and possession, Derby’s key job is to keep the centre compact and deny Birmingham clean access into the box. Birmingham take 61% of their shots from inside the area, which suggests they do manage to work the ball into dangerous zones often enough. But against a defensive opponent, the challenge becomes doing that without taking an extra touch, without turning every attack into a slow-motion rehearsal.
Derby’s shooting profile shows 69% of their attempts come from inside the box. That matters because it hints at their threat in moments rather than in volume: when they do break, they can get into the right zones. If Birmingham push numbers forward to sustain pressure — which possession-heavy sides often do — Derby will be looking to spring into the spaces left behind, especially if Birmingham are missing some right-sided depth with Laird and Osayi-Samuel unavailable.
There’s also an interesting clash in physical contests. Derby average 23.5 aerials won per Championship match, compared to Birmingham’s 17.4. In a game forecast to be cagey, that can show up in second balls, clearances, and how comfortable Derby are defending their box if Birmingham start aiming more directly towards forwards like Jay Stansfield, Lyndon Dykes, Kyogo Furuhashi or Ducksch (if he’s available).
In short, it could become a match of Birmingham probing and Derby absorbing, with the decisive moments arriving either when Birmingham finally speed up their combinations, or when Derby turn a defensive win into a quick, clean transition.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Birmingham’s league record after 22 games reads 30 goals scored and 29 conceded. Derby’s is 31 scored and 30 conceded. That near-mirroring fits the table positions and underlines why this feels like a fine-margins afternoon: both are operating around a similar balance of risk and reward.
Recent results point to Birmingham needing a lift. Across their last six matches they’ve won once, drawn twice and lost three, including a 3-0 defeat away at Sheffield United on 20 December 2025. Derby’s last six is steadier: two wins, two draws and two defeats, with that 1-1 against Portsmouth most recently.
Zooming out, Derby’s longer run is the kind that keeps you afloat in the Championship: only three defeats in their last 12. That’s not about fireworks; it’s about durability — exactly what you’d expect from a side labelled naturally defensive.
The on-ball contrast is stark. Birmingham’s 56% possession and 81% passing success suggests they will likely spend a lot of time trying to set the terms. Derby’s 42% possession profile suggests they’ll accept being without it and focus on their defensive organisation. And the shot counts reinforce the same idea: Birmingham’s 13.79 shots per game suggests they can generate attempts through sustained pressure, while Derby’s 9.33 suggests fewer, chosen moments.
There are also clues about how often each side finds a goal at all. Across the last 24 matches listed, Birmingham have scored in 18 (75%), while Derby have scored in 22 (92%). That doesn’t promise anything on its own, but it frames the question: if this stays tight, Derby have shown they can still find a way onto the scoresheet more often than not.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first swing factor is tempo. Birmingham’s challenge is turning control into incision. If the ball moves a fraction quicker — one-touch sets, earlier crosses, a willingness to shoot before Derby are fully set — the whole tone changes. If it stays slow, Derby will settle into the kind of defending that makes time feel sticky.
The second is the battle for right-sided structure. With Laird injured and Osayi-Samuel away, Birmingham’s options on that side look thinner, and Derby will be alive to any imbalance: can Birmingham still progress cleanly down that flank, and can they stop counters developing in the space that usually gets covered by players comfortable defending wide?
The third is the striker touch that turns “almost” into “enough”. Stansfield has eight league goals and three assists, and he’s also one of Birmingham’s higher-volume shooters at 2.2 shots per game. Derby have their own focal point in Carlton Morris, who has 10 league goals. In matches that may not produce a flood of chances, the forward who needs fewer invitations can end up deciding the story.
Set pieces and second balls may also loom larger than usual. Derby’s edge in aerials won suggests they can compete in the kind of scruffy phases that often define low-scoring games: defensive headers, clearances, and the next duel.
What could go wrong with this read? Plenty. A single early goal can scramble the script: a team built to defend suddenly has to chase, or a possession-heavy side gets the space it’s been craving. A red card changes everything too — and Birmingham have three reds listed across their matches, while Derby have none. Even without drama, the Championship has a habit of turning one deflection, one miskick, or one moment of brilliance into a full-time verdict.
Best Bet for Birmingham City vs Derby County
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Under 2.5 Goals
The tactical matchup between Birmingham City and Derby County suggests a low-scoring encounter where defensive discipline will likely outshine offensive flair. Birmingham City enter this fixture with a preference for ball retention, averaging 56% possession and a high pass completion rate of 81%. However, this methodical build-up has recently been described as slow and ineffective, struggling to translate control of the ball into high-quality scoring opportunities. This deliberate pace often allows opposition defenses to get organized, and Derby County are particularly well-equipped to exploit this.
Derby operate with a naturally defensive identity and are comfortable playing without the ball, as evidenced by their 42% possession average. They thrive in tight margins and focus on remaining compact to deny space in central areas. Since Birmingham take 61% of their shots from inside the penalty area, they will find it difficult to penetrate a Derby side that prioritizes defensive structure and excels in physical duels. Derby average 23.5 aerials won per match, significantly higher than Birmingham’s 17.4, suggesting the visitors will be dominant in clearing crosses and winning second balls inside their own box.
Furthermore, Birmingham face significant selection issues on the right flank with both Ethan Laird and Bright Osayi-Samuel unavailable. This absence of regular defensive and attacking depth on the wing could further narrow Birmingham’s avenues for stretching the Derby defense. While both teams have reliable strikers in Jay Stansfield and Carlton Morris, the overall game volume is expected to be low. Derby average only 9.33 shots per game, and with Birmingham’s recent struggle to find a decisive final action, the probability of the match staying below three total goals is high. The historical context and recent form—including Derby’s trend of just three defeats in their last 12 outings—point toward a cagey, disciplined battle at St Andrew’s.
What could go wrong?
A low-scoring prediction is most at risk if an early goal is scored, forcing the trailing team to abandon a defensive shape and play more expansively. Additionally, disciplinary issues could shift the balance; Birmingham have received three red cards this season, and a numerical disadvantage would likely create the spaces that a naturally defensive game usually denies.
Correct score lean
1-1 Draw
Rationale
A 1-1 draw is a logical extension of the tactical stalemate expected between these two mid-table sides. Birmingham City’s high possession and home advantage suggest they are likely to find the net at least once, having scored in 75% of their matches this season. However, Derby County are remarkably consistent in finding a way to score, having done so in 92% of their fixtures. Given that both teams have nearly identical defensive records—conceding 29 and 30 goals respectively—and sit only two points apart in the table, a shared result fits the narrative of a closely contested Boxing Day fixture.
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