The Case for Cremonese: While the hosts have failed to score in their last four outings, their defensive structure at the Stadio Zini remains a source of resilience. Cremonese have kept five clean sheets this season and are facing a Cagliari side that has won just once on the road in a 1-0 result. If the home side can leverage their set-piece height and keep the game tight, a single moment of quality could be enough to end their drought and secure vital points.

The Case for Cagliari: The visitors may struggle for goals, but their ability to create chances through the middle—marked as “strong”—offers a tactical route to victory. Cagliari’s patience in possession (they create chances using through balls) contrasts with Cremonese’s more direct style. If they can avoid early errors and exploit Cremonese’s tendency to concede fouls in dangerous areas, Cagliari have the tools to nick a narrow away win against a low-confidence opponent.

The Verdict: This is a classic Serie A relegation scrap where fear of losing often outweighs the desire to win. Both teams are defensively minded and lack offensive punch. Our model has identified the team most likely to benefit from this low-scoring environment.