The Case for Arsenal: The Gunners have turned the Emirates into a fortress, boasting a near-flawless home record of 9 wins and 1 draw. Their defensive resilience at home is unmatched, conceding just 0.5 goals per game. With their ability to dominate set-pieces—a known weakness for Liverpool—and the return of key players like Bukayo Saka to freshness, Arsenal look primed to exploit a Liverpool side that often struggles defensively on the road.

The Case for Liverpool: Despite recent stumbles, Liverpool remain a dangerous proposition, particularly in transition. They have scored in 90% of their away matches this season and possess individual brilliance in players like Cody Gakpo and Florian Wirtz who can turn a game in a moment. If they can bypass Arsenal’s press and utilize their wing play effectively, they have the firepower to trouble any defense, even one as stern as Arsenal’s.

The Verdict: This is a clash between Arsenal’s structured dominance at home and Liverpool’s chaotic but potent threat. Arsenal’s superior defensive metrics collide with Liverpool’s ability to score anywhere. Our model has dissected the tactical nuances, particularly set-pieces and transition play, to determine the most likely outcome.