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The Stade Olympique Annexe Complexe Sportif Prince Abdellah sets the stage for Tunisia’s opening act in the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations. Here’s our Bet Builder pick for Tunisia vs Uganda, which has been placed with William Hill:
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Why this pick
Haller is a pure penalty-box presence, with all 17 of his recent recorded shots coming from inside the area. With 9 headers in that sequence and Ivory Coast averaging 10 shots per game, the supply line from wide areas should provide him with ample opportunities to test a porous Mozambique defence.
Why this pick
Bayo is a volume shooter, averaging an attempt on goal roughly every 25 minutes of play (11 shots in 284 minutes). With 9 of those shots coming from inside the box and a recent goal for the national team against Oman, his aggressive style makes him a prime candidate to hit the target.
Why this pick
As Ivory Coast push their wing-backs high, space will appear on the counter-attack for Mozambique. Gildo, a goalscorer for his country recently against Uganda, is the likely outlet to exploit these gaps. He only needs one clean break to land a shot on target.
This 4/1 treble is grounded in the expected game state. We anticipate Ivory Coast dominating territory, feeding Haller and Bayo in the box against a Mozambique defence that concedes 1.4 goals per game. Conversely, the high defensive line of the champions creates the perfect counter-attacking environment for Gildo Vilanculos to register an effort on the break.
The Carthage Eagles arrive not just as favourites to progress from the group, but as genuine contenders for the crown, bringing with them a squad built on structural rigidity and tournament know-how. Facing them are a Uganda side who, while capable of efficiency in transition, face a daunting task against one of the continent’s most disciplined defensive units.
For Tunisia, this opener is about establishing authority immediately; for Uganda, it is about survival and disruption. With the tactical battle lines drawn between Tunisia’s expansive back-five system and Uganda’s reactive 4-2-3-1, the margins will likely be found in who controls the chaotic moments of transition. The market leans heavily towards a Tunisian victory, but the specific dynamics of how that victory might be achieved offer the most intriguing angles for this encounter.
Tunisia vs Uganda Bet Builder Tip
Tunisia To Win Both Halves
Rationale
The case for Tunisia dominating both periods of this match is rooted in a blend of their superior defensive metrics and their historical dominance over this opponent. The Carthage Eagles have been relentless in recent times, boasting a perfect record against Uganda with a cumulative aggregate score of 16-1. This isn’t just about winning; it is about a disparity in quality that usually manifests from the first whistle to the last.
Statistically, Tunisia’s profile suggests they are equipped to control the game state for 90 minutes. They average 2.00 goals per match in their World Cup 2025 context, a figure that highlights their ability to score regularly. Crucially, their defensive underlying numbers are elite: they concede an Expected Goals Against (xG) of just 1.06 per match. This indicates that opponents rarely get high-quality looks at their goal. If Uganda are limited to scraps—which seems likely given their xG For is a modest 1.21 against weaker opposition than this—Tunisia should be able to keep a clean sheet in both halves while their attack does the necessary work at the other end.
Tactically, the setup favours this selection. Tunisia’s likely 5-3-2 formation, with wing-backs Abdi and Talbi pushing high, allows them to overload wide areas and pin Uganda back. If Tunisia score early—which is probable given their 21% shot conversion rate—Uganda will be forced to abandon their defensive shape. Uganda’s vulnerability was starkly exposed in a cited 4-0 loss to Morocco, suggesting that when elite North African sides apply pressure, the Cranes can crumble across both halves. With Tunisia winning 50% of their recent 10 fixtures and looking to make a statement, backing them to win the first half and then win the second half (as separate contests) aligns with their superior class and control.
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Uganda Most Cards In Each Half
Rationale
While the raw foul statistics might suggest Tunisia are the more aggressive side (averaging 16.71 fouls per match compared to Uganda’s 14.67), the context of this specific match points towards Uganda accumulating the disciplinary count. In tournament football, the card count is heavily dictated by possession deficits and game state. Tunisia are expected to dominate the ball (averaging 53% possession) and territory, forcing Uganda into a reactive, defensive posture for long stretches.
When a team is pinned back against a technically superior opponent, the nature of the fouls changes. Tunisia’s fouls are often tactical disruptions in midfield; Uganda’s fouls are likely to be desperate recovery challenges or accumulation fouls around their own box. The projected midfield battle is key here. Uganda’s double pivot of Semakula and Aucho faces a difficult evening trying to contain a Tunisian trio of Sassi, Gharbi, and Ouanes. If Sassi and Gharbi start finding pockets of space between the lines, the Ugandan pivot will be forced to commit fouls to prevent clear goalscoring opportunities.
Furthermore, the wide dynamics increase the card risk for the underdogs. Tunisia’s system relies heavily on wing-backs providing width. If Abdi and Talbi are constantly running at Uganda’s full-backs (Sibbick and Herbert), those defenders will be isolated in 1v1 situations repeatedly. A fatigued defender facing a fresh winger late in a half is a prime candidate for a booking. Additionally, if Tunisia take the lead as expected, Uganda’s frustration may grow, leading to dissent or rash challenges as they chase the game. The “Most Cards in Each Half” selection is essentially a bet on Uganda being under sustained pressure and having to use illegal means to break up Tunisia’s flow.
Tunisia Most Corners
Rationale
The territorial battle heavily favours the Carthage Eagles, and corner kicks are often a direct derivative of territory and wide play. Tunisia’s tactical setup is naturally designed to generate corner situations. By utilizing wing-backs like Abdi and Talbi, along with a front two of Saad and Mastouri who can drift into channels, Tunisia focus their attacks down the flanks. Their objective is to get to the byline and deliver crosses. When those crosses are blocked by a packed Ugandan defence—likely sitting in a deep 4-2-3-1 block—the result is frequently a corner kick.
Conversely, Uganda’s attacking output is likely to be limited to sporadic counter-attacks. With only 50% possession on average and facing a Tunisian defence that concedes just 1.06 xGA, Uganda are unlikely to sustain the kind of pressure that leads to a high corner count. Their attacks will likely be quick transitions looking for Mukwala or Ikpeazu; these often end in a shot or a goal kick rather than a series of deflected crosses.
The possession stats reinforce this view. Tunisia’s 53% average suggests they will be the team probing in the final third, circulating the ball and forcing defensive actions. Uganda, averaging 42% possession in some contexts (implied by the game dynamic), will be prioritizing clearing their lines over winning set-pieces. In a game where one team is trying to break down a low block and the other is trying to survive, the team attacking the block almost invariably wins the corner count. Tunisia’s need to score combined with Uganda’s need to defend the width of their penalty area makes the hosts the clear choice to dominate the corner stats.
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