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The lights at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona will shine a little brighter tonight as Napoli face a definitive moment in their European campaign. Here’s our Bet Builder pick for Napoli vs Chelsea, which has been placed with Bet365:
Why this pick
Napoli are strong at home, taking seven points from nine at the Maradona. They face a Chelsea side that is "very weak" at preventing chances and frail defending set pieces. With the Italians desperate for a win to stay in Europe, their tactical advantage on dead balls and home form gives them the edge.
Why this pick
Hojlund faces a Chelsea defence that leaks chances and struggles with set pieces. The Danish striker has a 48% shot accuracy and plays big minutes in key games. As the focal point of an attack facing a vulnerable backline, he is well-placed to test the keeper twice.
Why this pick
McTominay is a volume monster, taking 55 shots this season—more than 98% of midfielders. He recently landed two shots on target against Inter and averages one per game. His driving runs and willingness to shoot from range make him a prime candidate to hit the target twice.
This 35/1 longshot combines match-winning motivation with statistical dominance. We back Napoli to win based on their strong home record and set-piece superiority. We pair this with their two most frequent shooters: Hojlund, who targets Chelsea’s defensive weakness, and McTominay, whose shot volume is simply elite.
Sitting 25th in the league phase table on eight points, the Italians are currently outside the qualification spots on goal difference. The equation is brutal but simple: win, or face the chaos of elimination. Chelsea arrive in Naples in a far more comfortable 8th position, but they step into a hostile environment where desperation will fuel the home side. With Antonio Conte needing a result against his former club, this clash of styles promises tension, tactical battles, and raw urgency.
Napoli vs Chelsea Bet Builder Tip
Full Time Result: Napoli to Win
While the market views this as a tight contest with Chelsea as narrow favourites, the situational reality points to a massive performance from the home side. The “Maradona factor” is the first line of defence; despite their perilous league position, Napoli have been formidable on their own patch, taking seven points from a possible nine at home in this competition. When the pressure is highest, this stadium becomes a fortress, and Napoli simply cannot afford to slip up.
Tactically, Conte’s side possesses the specific weapons needed to dismantle this Chelsea setup. The visitors are flagged as “very weak” at stopping opponents from creating chances—a dangerous flaw when facing a Napoli team that thrives on width and playing through balls. Furthermore, the set-piece battle looks decisive. Napoli are rated as “very strong” at finishing chances and, crucially, very strong at defending set pieces. Conversely, Chelsea are “weak” at defending them. In a high-stakes game where margins are fine, Napoli’s dominance in the air and organisation on dead balls gives them a clear route to goal.
Chelsea’s defensive frailty is further highlighted by their tendency to concede, shipping eight goals in the competition so far compared to Napoli’s seven conceded. While Chelsea bring firepower (14 goals), their aggressive approach—averaging 2.4 yellow cards per game—often leaves them exposed. The absence of Kevin De Bruyne is a significant loss for the hosts, but it forces a tactical shift towards a compact, disciplined unit driven by the power of Scott McTominay and the control of Stanislav Lobotka. With Chelsea’s defence specifically vulnerable to through balls and set pieces, Napoli have the blueprint to secure the victory they desperately need.
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Rasmus Hojlund: 2+ Shots on Target
Leading the line for Napoli is Rasmus Hojlund, and the Danish striker finds himself in a tactical matchup that should yield chances. Facing a Chelsea defence categorized as “very weak” at preventing chance creation, Hojlund will be the primary beneficiary of Napoli’s service. His physical presence (191cm) makes him a nightmare for a backline that struggles with set pieces, an area where Napoli are expected to dominate.
Hojlund’s output this season suggests he is ready for the occasion. He has recorded 27 shots with a solid 48% on-target ratio. While his seasonal average sits around 0.7 shots on target per 90 minutes, the context of this “must-win” game changes the dynamic. He has started 17 matches in Serie A, cementing his role as the focal point, and has played the full 90 minutes in recent key fixtures against Juventus and Copenhagen.
He is not shy about shooting, taking 18% of the team’s total attempts. Recent form backs this up; he landed two shots on target in the win against Cremonese and scored in matches against Milan and Sassuolo. Against a Chelsea side that concedes an average of two goals per recent UCL game, Hojlund will be the target for every cross and through ball, making two accurate strikes a strong possibility.
Scott McTominay: 2+ Shots on Target
Scott McTominay has been a revelation in Naples, transforming into a high-volume attacking threat from midfield. His statistics are nothing short of elite for his position: he has unleashed 55 shots this season, a tally higher than 98% of midfielders. He doesn’t just join the attack; he drives it, often shooting on sight.
The Scotsman enters this match in menacing form. He registered two shots on target in the massive clash against Inter recently and found the net against FC Copenhagen. Overall, he averages exactly 1.0 shot on target per 90 minutes across 21 matches, proving his consistency.
Tactically, this game is set up for him. Chelsea’s tendency to flood central areas can leave pockets of space at the edge of the box for late runners—McTominay’s speciality. He ranks in the 99th percentile for goals among midfielders, with five Serie A strikes to his name. Whether it’s driving into the box (30 shots from inside the area) or trying his luck from distance (25 shots from outside), he is a constant danger. With Napoli needing to force the issue, expect McTominay to be aggressive and test the keeper frequently.
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