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The final Premier League fixture before Christmas Day offers a compelling Monday night clash at Craven Cottage, with only two points separating Fulham and Nottingham Forest in the table. Here’s our Bet Builder pick for Fulham vs Nottingham Forest, which has been placed with Bet365:
Why this pick
Newcastle’s home form is currently a major concern, with three losses in their last four games at St James' Park. They have conceded two or more goals in five of their last six home fixtures, displaying a clear vulnerability to counter-attacks. Qarabag average 1.5 goals per match in the Champions League and have no reason to play defensively given the aggregate score. With Newcastle’s explosive attack almost certain to score, and their defence consistently failing to keep clean sheets at home, goals at both ends are highly probable.
Why this pick
Gordon is in the form of his life, having scored four times in the first leg to take his European tally to 10 goals this season. He is the primary attacking threat for Eddie Howe’s side and recorded a 9.9 rating in the reverse fixture. With 36 shots already this season and a Qarabag defence that has conceded 27 goals in nine games, Gordon will have ample opportunity to test the keeper. His high-volume shooting and role as the main outlet make multiple shots on target a natural expectation.
Why this pick
Camilo Duran is the danger man for the visitors, having scored twice against Eintracht Frankfurt and once against Ajax in this campaign. He is a frequent shooter for a side that averages 10 attempts per game in Europe. Given Newcastle’s defensive fragility and their habit of allowing high shot volumes at St James’ Park, Duran will be central to Qarabag’s counter-attacking strategy. His clinical nature and role as a primary attacker ensure he will be the one most likely to challenge the Newcastle goal.
This 19/1 Bet Builder exploits the tactical mismatch between Newcastle’s elite attacking output and their recent defensive collapse at home. By combining the high probability of goals for both sides with the individual shot-taking trends of Gordon and Duran, this selection covers the most likely offensive outcomes in an open game. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware.
The stakes are deceptively high for a mid-table duel; a win for the visitors would see them leapfrog their hosts, while Marco Silva’s men are looking to cement their status above the relegation scrap. It has been a fixture synonymous with entertainment recently—averaging nearly 3.5 goals per game historically—but the real value here lies in the tactical battle between Fulham’s possession-heavy home style and Forest’s reactive, transition-based approach.
Fulham vs Nottingham Forest Bet Builder Tip
Fulham to Win
The case for a home victory is built on a stark divergence in form and venue performance. Fulham arrive at this fixture with genuine momentum, having collected nine points from their last five Premier League matches. More impressively, they have rediscovered their touch in front of goal, netting 11 times in that five-match sequence. This attacking output is not a statistical anomaly but a reflection of their dominance at Craven Cottage, where they average 1.75 goals per game and control proceedings with an average of 55% possession. When playing in front of their own fans, Marco Silva’s side generates a high volume of pressure, averaging 13.5 shots per match.
In contrast, Nottingham Forest’s travels have been far less fruitful. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side has struggled significantly to impact games on the road, averaging just 0.75 goals per away match. The fact that they have failed to score in 50% of their matches overall is a damning statistic for a team visiting a confident Fulham defence. While Forest possess undeniable speed on the break through players like Callum Hudson-Odoi, their reliance on moments rather than sustained pressure is risky against a team that manages the ball as well as Fulham.
Historical precedence also leans heavily in favour of the Londoners. Fulham have won 12 of the 19 previous meetings between the clubs and are currently on a streak of three consecutive home victories against Forest at the Cottage. Furthermore, the defensive metrics suggest Forest are vulnerable when forced to defend for long periods, conceding an average of 1.50 goals per away game. With Fulham needing significantly fewer shots to score at home (7.71 per goal) compared to Forest’s inefficient away returns (12.67 shots per goal), the hosts possess the requisite ruthlessness to secure all three points.
The expected goals (xG) data further reinforces the disparity in quality expected on Monday. Fulham’s home xG sits at a respectable 1.51, suggesting their scoring rate is sustainable, whereas Forest’s away xG drops to 1.20. When you combine Fulham’s ability to create 13.5 shots per game with Forest’s tendency to allow 1.5 goals per game on their travels, the probability of a home win looks far stronger than the league table suggests. The tactical dynamic of Fulham’s double pivot (Berge and Lukic) controlling the tempo should limit the chaotic transition moments Forest rely upon.
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Kenny Tete: 3+ Tackles
If Fulham are to control this game, Kenny Tete will be instrumental in shutting down Forest’s primary route to goal: the counter-attack. The Dutch full-back has been a defensive juggernaut this season, registering a massive 45 tackles across just 13 matches. This averages out to approximately 3.46 tackles per 90 minutes, a figure that comfortably clears the required line for this selection.
Tete’s role puts him directly in the firing line against a Forest side that prioritises wing play. With the visitors averaging fewer touches and looking to spring forward quickly via ball-carriers like Hudson-Odoi or Anthony Elanga, Tete will be engaged in frequent 1v1 duels near the touchline. His profile confirms his aggression in these areas, boasting a 60.8% duel win rate. Given that Forest’s game plan revolves around absorbing pressure and releasing wide runners, the volume of defensive actions required from Fulham’s full-backs will be naturally inflated. Tete’s consistency in this metric makes him one of the most reliable defensive contributors on the pitch, and the game state suits his specific skillset perfectly.
Harry Wilson: 2+ Fouls Won
Harry Wilson’s influence in the final third often goes beyond goals and assists; his ability to draw contact is a vital tool for breaking down stubborn defences. The Welsh winger has won 18 fouls in his 15 appearances this season, highlighting his knack for forcing defenders into mistimed challenges. Operating in tight spaces and often cutting inside onto his favoured left foot, Wilson invites pressure from aggressive markers, a trait that is particularly relevant against this Nottingham Forest backline.
Forest’s disciplinary record suggests they are prone to committing fouls in wide areas, with key defenders like Neco Williams already sitting on four yellow cards this season. Wilson’s dribbling statistics—successful in 60% of his attempts—show that he is willing to take players on, forcing the opposition to make a decision: let him go or bring him down. In a match where Fulham are expected to dominate possession and camp in the opposition half, Wilson will likely receive the ball in congested zones where desperate lunges are common. With set-pieces likely to play a huge role in this fixture (Fulham average 12 free kicks per match), Wilson’s ability to buy cheap fouls around the box will be a key part of the home side’s strategy.
Murillo: 2+ Tackles
Nottingham Forest’s Brazilian centre-back, Murillo, is set for a busy evening at Craven Cottage. With Fulham averaging 13.5 shots per home game and sustaining pressure through their midfield pivot, Forest’s central defenders will be forced to step out of the defensive line to engage attackers. Murillo has demonstrated his willingness to be active defensively, recording 15 tackles in his 10 starts this season, averaging 1.5 per game.
While his average sits slightly below the line, the specific dynamics of this match push the projection higher. Fulham’s attack involves intricate play around the box involving Smith Rowe and Raul Jimenez, often requiring centre-backs to make last-ditch challenges or step into midfield to snuff out danger. Additionally, Murillo wins 64.2% of his duels, indicating he is confident in engaging physical battles. As Fulham push for a win and dominate territory, Forest will be pinned back for long stretches, naturally increasing the number of tackle opportunities for their central defenders. Murillo’s proactive style ensures he will be at the heart of Forest’s rearguard action.
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