Quarter-final qualification from UEFA Nations League Group A1 comes down to a definitive final fixture at the Stade Roi Baudouin. Here’s our Bet Builder pick for Belgium v Italy, which has been placed with Bet365.
L. Trossard - To Score or Assist
Player Assists
With Belgium needing a win to secure quarter-final qualification, Leandro Trossard is poised to play a pivotal creative role. Positioned in midfield, he frequently contributes to Belgium's attacking moves and is likely to be involved in goal-scoring opportunities. Although he hasn't recorded a goal or assist recently, the match's importance and Belgium's need to break down a strong Italian defence suggest Trossard could provide at least one direct goal involvement in this contest.
G. Donnarumma - 3+ Saves
Goalkeeper Saves
Italy's goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma is expected to face significant pressure from Belgium's attacking efforts in this Nations League fixture. Belgium averages over five shots per game with a good proportion on target, indicating Donnarumma will be called into action multiple times. His recent consistency in reaching three or more saves in most matches supports the likelihood of him maintaining this level of activity, reflecting Italy's need to remain competitive against a potent Belgian offence.
Y. Tielemans - 1+ Fouls Committed
Player Fouls Committed
Youri Tielemans will likely be central to Belgium's midfield battle, tasked with disrupting Italy's rhythm and contesting possession. His role naturally involves defensive challenges and pressing, which often result in fouls. Recent performances show he regularly commits at least one foul per game, making this a reasonable expectation given the anticipated intensity and tactical nature of the match as Belgium aims to control the midfield and hinder Italy's attacking flow.
Over 2.5 Goals
Goals Total
This fixture is expected to be open and competitive, with both Belgium and Italy demonstrating strong attacking form in recent Nations League matches. Belgium's imperative to win and Italy's consistent goal-scoring record suggest a lively encounter with multiple scoring opportunities. Historical meetings between these teams have averaged around 2.5 goals, supporting the view that this game could see three or more goals scored, fitting well with the attacking and defensive dynamics anticipated.
Italy arrive in Brussels leading the standings on 10 points, knowing a draw will be sufficient to secure their progress. Belgium, sitting narrowly behind in third, face a much simpler tactical reality: they must win to guarantee their place in the knockout stage. Both sides secured important victories earlier this week, with Italy defeating France 3-1 and Belgium managing a 2-1 comeback against Turkey. This defined contrast in objectives creates an intriguing environment for a multi-market Bet Builder, priced at 4/1, balancing Belgium’s attacking desperation against Italy’s established scoring rhythm.
Belgium v Italy Bet Builder Tip
Leandro Trossard – To Score or Assist
Belgium’s absolute requirement for a victory places immediate responsibility on their forward line to break down the group leaders. Leandro Trossard’s underlying domestic and European metrics suggest he is well-equipped to provide that necessary cutting edge, offering a genuine dual threat as both a creator and a finisher.
Operating for Beşiktaş this season, the winger has accumulated two goals and four assists across 828 minutes of football. While a return of six direct goal contributions in 10 matches is solid rather than spectacular, his peripheral numbers indicate a player consistently involved in high-value attacking situations. Trossard has generated 2.92 Expected Goals and 3.15 Expected Assists, demonstrating an impressive balance between taking chances and providing them. He has registered 33 shots, ensuring a consistent volume of attempts, with exactly one-third of those hitting the target.
Crucially for this specific market, Trossard’s shot locations point towards intelligent positioning rather than speculative efforts from distance. Of his 33 attempts, 23 have originated from inside the penalty area, putting him in areas where rebounds or slight deflections frequently result in goals. His creative distribution is equally relevant; the Belgian has delivered 91 line-breaking passes and created 18 chances, including seven classified as big chances. Whether supplying Romelu Lukaku’s replacements or finishing moves orchestrated by Kevin De Bruyne, Trossard possesses the necessary statistical foundation to influence the scoreline.
The matchup against Italy presents distinct opportunities. Roberto Mancini’s side have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five matches, indicating a persistent defensive vulnerability despite their strong group position. When these two sides met in September, Belgium generated a commanding 2.76 Expected Goals in a 2-0 victory, proving they have the tactical blueprint to dismantle the Italian defensive structure.
The primary counterpoint to Trossard’s involvement is his recent playing time at international level. He featured for just 21 minutes as a substitute during Thursday’s victory over Turkey. If Mark van Bommel again opts to use him primarily as an impact player from the bench, his window to register a goal or assist will be heavily restricted. Furthermore, Belgium’s attack frequently funnels through De Bruyne and Charles De Ketelaere, who both scored against Turkey, meaning Trossard must compete for central involvement.
Nevertheless, given the mandatory requirement for a home victory and Italy’s ongoing inability to secure defensive shutouts, Trossard’s proven capacity to generate high-quality shooting and passing opportunities makes him a credible candidate to influence the final third.
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G. Donnarumma – 3+ Saves
The tactical reality of Belgium needing a victory ensures the Italian penalty area will face sustained pressure, placing Gianluigi Donnarumma in the direct line of fire. The goalkeeper’s recent performances for Manchester City establish a baseline of regular activity, having made 25 saves across 10 domestic and European appearances to maintain a 65.8 per cent save success rate.
Belgium’s attacking approach guarantees they will test the opposition goalkeeper. The Red Devils have scored in 16 of their previous 18 matches, and their September meeting with Italy saw them generate 2.76 Expected Goals in a 2-0 victory. Knowing that a draw eliminates them, Belgium will be forced to commit numbers forward, increasing the volume of attempts directed at the Italian goal. Donnarumma has already faced 31 shots from inside the penalty area for his club this season, highlighting his exposure to high-quality chances.
The main risk to this selection is Italy’s potential to dictate possession or Belgium displaying ruthless clinical finishing. If Belgium convert their early shots on target into goals, Donnarumma’s save count may remain low despite a poor defensive outcome. Additionally, Italy require only a draw and could attempt to suffocate the match rather than allowing it to become a transition-heavy contest. However, given Belgium’s urgent need to attack, the Italian goalkeeper should comfortably face enough volume to reach this required threshold.
Y. Tielemans – 1+ Fouls Committed
The midfield battle in Brussels will dictate the tempo of the match, placing Youri Tielemans in a position where defensive interventions are unavoidable. Tasked with breaking up play in central areas, the Manchester United midfielder has recorded 75 defensive contributions this season, including 14 tackles and nine interceptions across 658 minutes of club football.
Facing an Italian side that excels in transition, Tielemans will be structurally exposed. As Belgium push forward to secure the victory they require to qualify, spaces will naturally open up behind their midfield line. Italy’s Davide Frattesi and Francesco Pio Esposito are highly capable of exploiting those gaps, forcing the Belgian holding players into recovery runs and tactical challenges. When counter-attacks develop, a professional foul is frequently the most effective method of reorganising the defensive shape.
The strongest counter-evidence comes from Tielemans’ own disciplinary record. Despite his defensive responsibilities, he has committed just five fouls across nine club appearances this season—averaging approximately one foul every 131 minutes. This highlights a player who relies heavily on positional intelligence rather than aggressive tackling. However, the unique game state of a mandatory-win international qualifier against a potent, fast-breaking Italian midfield significantly increases the likelihood of a mistimed challenge or necessary tactical intervention.
Over 2.5 Goals
The statistical profiles of both nations point overwhelmingly toward an open, high-scoring fixture. Italy’s recent Nations League campaign has been remarkably productive, generating 17 goals across five group matches. More specifically, their last four fixtures have all seen both teams score, producing a combined total of 15 goals. With Esposito establishing himself at international level and Frattesi providing midfield threat, the Azzurri consistently contribute to match totals.
Belgium share this attacking consistency, having found the net in 16 of their previous 18 matches. Their recent 2-1 victory over Turkey and 4-1 defeat against France demonstrate a clear pattern of open, multi-goal encounters. The combined attacking metrics from their September meeting with Italy—which generated 4.46 Expected Goals despite finishing 2-0—suggest both defensive structures are vulnerable to being breached.
The primary argument against a high-scoring game is the group mathematics. Italy need only a point to progress and could deploy a rigid, defensive block to frustrate their hosts. The reverse fixture also fell just short of this exact goal line. However, given that Roberto Mancini’s side have failed to keep a single clean sheet in their last five matches, and Belgium have absolutely no alternative but to attack, the conditions heavily favour a contest containing at least three goals.
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