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The football calendar offers no respite this Monday, presenting a fascinating blend of high-stakes international knockout football and crucial domestic league clashes across Europe.
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Nigeria have scored eight goals in three games but are yet to keep a clean sheet. Mozambique have scored in every game so far and the last H2H ended 3-2. Nigeria’s firepower should win it, but their defense remains leaky.
Summary: Nigeria concede in every game but avg 16.3 shots → Nigeria to Win and Both Teams to Score.
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Leicester concede 1.5 goals per game, and BTTS has landed in 11 of their last 12. West Brom average 13.9 shots per game and excel at set-pieces, Leicester’s main weakness. Both defenses are statistically fragile.
Summary: BTTS has landed in 11 of Leicester’s last 12 games → Both Teams to Score.
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Benevento are unbeaten at home (8 wins, 1 draw) and have scored 4+ goals in three of their last four games. Crotone are winless in five away games and failed to score in four of those.
Summary: Benevento have won 8 of 9 home games; Crotone winless in 5 away → Benevento to Win.
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Cosenza have scored in 16 consecutive league games and lost just once in their last ten. Monopoli have lost the first half in four consecutive away matches and struggle to impose themselves on the road.
Summary: Cosenza have scored in 16 straight games; Monopoli struggle away → Cosenza to Win.
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Leg 1: Benevento to Win (vs Crotone) The evidence here is overwhelming. Benevento have won eight of nine home games and remain unbeaten at the Stadio Ciro Vigorito. They are facing a Crotone side that hasn't won in five away attempts and has failed to score in four of those. With Benevento scoring for fun (4+ goals in three of their last four games) and Crotone firing blanks on the road, this is the strongest home win selection of the day. Leg 2: Both Teams to Score – Leicester City vs West Brom The stats for this fixture are undeniable. Both teams have scored in 11 of Leicester’s last 12 games. Leicester concede 1.50 goals per game, while West Brom concede 1.31 (and even more away from home). West Brom’s high shot volume (13.9 per game) and set-piece strength target Leicester’s exact weaknesses, while Leicester’s own attack is potent enough to breach a Baggies defence that has lost eight away games in a row.
- Benevento have won eight and drawn one of their nine home matches this season, keeping clean sheets in their last three league outings.
- Both teams have scored in 11 of Leicester City’s last 12 Championship matches.
- Nigeria have conceded at least one goal in all three of their AFCON group stage matches despite winning every game.
While the headline act comes from the Africa Cup of Nations, where heavyweights Nigeria look to book their quarter-final spot, there is plenty of value to be found in the domestic grind of the English Championship and the Italian Serie C.
From the King Power Stadium to the heat of the Complexe Sportif de Fès, the narratives for today are defined by teams at opposite ends of the confidence spectrum. We have league leaders looking to turn their stadiums into fortresses, mid-table sides unable to stop scoring (or conceding), and underdogs hoping to disrupt the status quo. Whether it is a battle for promotion in Italy or a fight for continental glory in Africa, Monday’s fixture list provides ample data to construct a solid betting strategy.
Here is our detailed analysis and best bets for the day’s action.
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Nigeria vs Mozambique
Rationale: The Africa Cup of Nations Round of 16 throws up a contest that, on the surface, looks like a mismatch, yet the underlying numbers suggest a far more chaotic encounter than the odds might imply. Nigeria arrive at this stage with the swagger of a team that navigated Group C with a perfect record. Three wins from three matches is the kind of form that wins tournaments, but it is their method of victory that catches the eye. The Super Eagles have been an offensive juggernaut, netting eight goals across those three fixtures. When you look at their production, specifically the average of 16.3 shots per game, it paints a picture of a side that relentlessly pressures opponents. With 63.5% possession and a passing accuracy touching nearly 90%, they are controlling games and creating chances at will.
However, this attacking potency has come at a distinct cost. Nigeria have yet to keep a clean sheet in the tournament, conceding in all three of their group games. It seems that in their pursuit of goals, the door is often left ajar at the back. This aligns with a broader trend where they have conceded exactly one goal in six of their last nine fixtures. They are outscoring opponents, but they aren’t shutting them out.
Mozambique, qualifying as one of the best third-placed teams, will be acutely aware of this fragility. While they lack Nigeria’s volume—averaging a more modest 9.0 shots per game—they possess efficiency. They have scored four times in the tournament, and in Geny Catamo, they have a player in red-hot form with three goal involvements (two goals, one assist) already. The Mambas are not a side to sit back and play for a 0-0; in fact, they have never been involved in a goalless draw in their tournament history. They concede chances, having shipped five goals so far, but they generally find a way to land a punch of their own.
The history between these nations supports the theory of an open game; their most recent meeting ended in a thrilling 3-2 victory for Nigeria. With Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman leading a Nigerian line that strikes fear into defenders, and Mozambique needing to be opportunistic to survive, the script points towards Nigeria having too much firepower, but not without suffering a scare or two along the way.
Best bet: Nigeria to Win and Both Teams to Score
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Leicester City vs West Bromwich Albion
Rationale: Monday night football in the Championship takes us to the King Power Stadium, where a mid-table clash hides a potential goal-fest. The league table shows Leicester City in 13th and West Bromwich Albion in 18th, but those positions disguise the sheer volatility of these two squads. Leicester are the embodiment of “high-risk, high-reward” football this season. They have scored 35 goals in 25 games, a healthy return averaging 1.42 per match. However, their defensive record is actually worse than their attacking one, conceding 37 goals at a rate of 1.50 per game.
This statistical profile has created a remarkable trend for the Foxes: both teams have scored in 11 of their last 12 Championship fixtures. It is becoming a near-certainty that when Leicester play, goalkeepers at both ends will be picking the ball out of the net. Their style plays a huge part in this; they are aggressive, dominating possession (52.3%) and looking to hurt teams down the right flank with the creativity of Abdul Fatawu. Yet, they are explicitly weak at defending set-pieces and prone to individual errors, which invites pressure.
West Bromwich Albion are the perfect opponent to exploit these specific weaknesses. Despite their lowly league position and a horrific run of eight consecutive away defeats, the Baggies are actually out-shooting Leicester this season, averaging 13.9 shots per game to Leicester’s 11.7. They are aggressive in the final third, with 68% of their shots coming from inside the box. Furthermore, they are statistically strong at attacking set-pieces—Leicester’s kryptonite.
However, West Brom are just as generous at the back, conceding 33 goals this term. They are currently struggling to stop the rot on their travels, and facing a Leicester side unbeaten in their last nine league meetings against them will be a psychological hurdle. With Leicester missing the suspended Harry Winks in midfield, the game could become even more transitional and open. The reverse fixture ended 1-1, and given the defensive holes in both squads combined with their respective attacking strengths, a clean sheet for either side feels highly improbable.
Best bet: Both Teams to Score
Benevento vs Crotone
Rationale: In Italy’s Serie C Group C, we have a classic confrontation between a formidable home side and a traveler who has forgotten how to win on the road. Benevento sit proudly at the top of the table with 41 points, and their campaign has been built on the foundation of an imperious home record at the Stadio Ciro Vigorito. The statistics are daunting for any visitor: eight wins, one draw, and zero defeats. They have turned their ground into a fortress where opposition hopes go to die.
Currently, Benevento are playing with the confidence of champions-elect. They have kept three consecutive clean sheets in the league, shutting the door firmly on their opponents. At the other end of the pitch, they are devastating, having scored four or more goals in three of their last four matches. Even with injuries to key players like Giacomo Ricci and top-scorer Francesco Salvemini, the squad depth is shining through, as evidenced by their recent 4-0 and 5-1 victories.
Crotone, sitting in 6th place, are having a respectable season but are currently battling a severe bout of travel sickness. They are winless in their last five away outings, managing only four draws and a defeat. More worryingly, their attack seems to vanish when they leave home comforts; they have failed to score in four of those last five away games. Trying to break down a Benevento defence that has recorded three straight shutouts seems a monumental task for a side lacking offensive confidence on the road.
History also favours the league leaders. Benevento are unbeaten in their last eight meetings with Crotone, winning four and drawing four. The combination of Benevento’s free-scoring form (averaging huge numbers recently) and rock-solid defence, contrasted against Crotone’s inability to find the net away from home, points heavily in one direction. The “Sorcerers” look poised to extend their lead at the summit.
Best bet: Benevento to Win
Cosenza vs Monopoli
Rationale: Staying in Serie C Group C, the late kick-off sees 4th-placed Cosenza host 8th-placed Monopoli in a game where momentum is heavily skewed towards the hosts. Cosenza are enjoying a rich vein of form, having lost just once in their last ten matches. Their consistency is their greatest asset; they have found the net in 16 consecutive league games. This reliability in front of goal means they are almost always in contention to take points, averaging 1.8 goals scored per game.
At home, Cosenza are particularly difficult to handle, feeding off the energy of the Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla. Their recent 2-1 victory over Cavese demonstrated their ability to grind out results, and they boast a balanced record of 10 wins, 6 draws, and only 3 losses all season. They are a team that knows how to manage game states and apply pressure.
Monopoli, conversely, are plagued by slow starts, especially when playing away. The statistics reveal a worrying trend: they have not led at half-time in any of their last 16 away fixtures. Even worse, they have lost the first half in each of their last four away trips. While they tend to wake up in the second half—scoring over 0.5 goals in the second period of their last 10 matches—this habit of chasing games is dangerous against a side as consistent as Cosenza.
The head-to-head record is balanced, with a 2-2 draw earlier in the season, but the current trajectories of the teams have diverged since then. Cosenza’s ability to score 1.8 goals per game compared to Monopoli’s 1.2 suggests the hosts have the superior firepower. Monopoli are conceding 1.3 goals per game and 1.4 in their last five, indicating a defence that can be breached. Cosenza’s probability of winning is rated at 54% based on the data, which reflects their status as clear favourites to secure the three points.
Best bet: Cosenza to Win
🧪 Daily Super Double
For Monday’s double, we are combining the statistical reliability of the Italian league leaders with the goal-scoring chaos of the English Championship.
Leg 1: Benevento to Win (vs Crotone) The evidence here is overwhelming. Benevento have won eight of nine home games and remain unbeaten at the Stadio Ciro Vigorito. They are facing a Crotone side that hasn’t won in five away attempts and has failed to score in four of those. With Benevento scoring for fun (4+ goals in three of their last four games) and Crotone firing blanks on the road, this is the strongest home win selection of the day.
Leg 2: Both Teams to Score – Leicester City vs West Brom The stats for this fixture are undeniable. Both teams have scored in 11 of Leicester’s last 12 games. Leicester concede 1.50 goals per game, while West Brom concede 1.31 (and even more away from home). West Brom’s high shot volume (13.9 per game) and set-piece strength target Leicester’s exact weaknesses, while Leicester’s own attack is potent enough to breach a Baggies defence that has lost eight away games in a row.
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