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It is a massive Saturday of racing action, with the spotlight firmly fixed on Ascot for the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle, supported by a competitive card at Hereford. We have dug deep into the racecards to identify the horses with the most compelling profiles, looking for those unexposed types who might just be ahead of the handicapper or ready to step up in class.
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Sharpened by his return to hurdling, Ballyburn is almost sure to be involved. He holds a perfect three-from-three record at Leopardstown and is unbeaten on yielding ground. While he narrowly lost to Teahupoo at Fairyhouse, his flawless venue record and expected fitness progression support him turning the tables here.
Summary: Sharpened by his return and boasting a 100% course record → Ballyburn
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This six-year-old impressed on his chase and handicap debut at Southwell. He could easily make light of the 8lb rise. While Hecouldbetheone found the ground too soft, The Bluesman faces exposed rivals like Stratagem. His trainer Olly Murphy has a 25% strike rate, and the horse has won 67% at this distance.
Summary: Impressed on chase debut and can defy the weight rise → The Bluesman.
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Conyers Hill brings strong form from two good runs at Cheltenham and a second over this course and distance. He is taken to score in this competitive handicap. Trainer Paul Nolan’s runner faces rivals with vulnerabilities, such as Dancing Jeremy lacking a recent run and Ballybawn Belter remaining a maiden over fences.
Summary: Good Cheltenham form and course proven → Conyers Hill
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A breakthrough win looks very near for this consistent maiden who performed well in both prior chases. Rivals face issues: Pep Talking bled last time, and Flamelco finished remotely at Aintree. Two To Tango offers a reliable profile against opponents with significant questions like recent falls or poor form.
Summary: Consistent maiden ready for a breakthrough win → Two To Tango.
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Ballyburn reverses form with Teahupoo thanks to his 100% course record at Leopardstown and increased sharpness. He combines with Two To Tango, who has performed well in both chase starts and is very near a breakthrough victory against erratic opposition.
- Ballyburn has a 100% win record (3-3) at Leopardstown.
- Teahupoo has a 75% win record (3-4) on the prevailing going.
- The Bluesman has won 67% of his races (2-3) at the 2m4f distance.
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Below, we break down the key contenders for the afternoon, starting with a fascinating mares’ handicap chase at Hereford where a returning chaser catches the eye.
2:13 Hereford – winningpost.co.uk Play Champion Tipster Mares’ Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
This Class 3 contest over three miles and one furlong presents a tricky puzzle for punters, with a field of eleven runners offering a mix of established form and unfulfilled potential. The market suggests a competitive heat, but when you strip back the recent form lines and look at the profiles for improvement, one mare stands out as a fascinating proposition for the Sam Thomas yard.
Alfie’s Princess arrives here as a horse with significant questions to answer regarding her fitness, having been off the track since a promising chase debut back in October 2024. However, that absence might well have allowed her to strengthen, and she remains completely unexposed as a stayer. Her debut over fences was over a shorter trip of two miles and five furlongs, where she shaped with distinct promise. Now stepping up in trip, there is every reason to believe she can improve further. The stable has kept her away from the track for a spell, but if she is ready to roll, a mark of 119 looks potentially exploitable for a mare who has shown glimmers of real talent.
To understand why she is the selection, we must carefully assess the dangers lurking in this field, as there are plenty of credible threats that make this a deep contest. Theonewedreamof is the obvious starting point for any analysis of the opposition. The Dan Skelton runner comes here off the back of a very solid effort at Cheltenham just a week ago, where she finished a close second in a large field of fifteen runners. That kind of competitive handicap form is often the gold standard in these types of races, and she is rightly respected. However, turning out relatively quickly after such a hard race can sometimes leave a mark, and she faces fresh opponents today.
Another runner who demands close attention is Lagonda for Venetia Williams. She has course form to her name, having finished second in this very race twelve months ago. That experience of the unique Hereford undulations is a positive, and the application of new cheekpieces could be the catalyst she needs to sharpen her focus. If she responds well to the new headgear, she is dangerous, although her recent form figures of 1229-6 suggest she needs to bounce back from a lackluster effort most recently.
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Kosasiempre is another who arrives with a winning feeling, having scored over this course and distance last month. Course and distance winners are always worth a second look at Hereford, but this race represents a step up in grade and intensity. The handicapper has raised her four pounds for that victory, which is not excessive, but she will need to find a bit more improvement to cope with the stronger opposition she faces today.
We also have Malaita, representing Mel Rowley. She has come back into good form on her last two outings and remains on a workable mark. Crucially, like our selection, she is unexposed over distances of three miles and further. Her recent consistency (form figures of 5-6532) suggests she is knocking on the door, and she could easily be in the mix at the business end of the race.
At bigger prices, Lady Balko presents a conundrum. She actually won this race in 2024, proving her suitability for the test, but she has rather lost her way since then, with a string of disappointing results including being pulled up. While it would be no surprise to see her bounce back to form at a venue she likes, it requires a leap of faith to back her based on recent evidence. Similarly, Flowing Cadenza won this contest back in 2022. However, she has been very lightly raced in recent years, making her current ability extremely hard to gauge. She returns here with questions to answer.
Minniemum for Henry Daly ran well in a Listed race recently, which reads well on paper, but she has been hit with a five-pound rise for that effort. That additional weight burden in a competitive handicap might just anchor her today. Followango is a model of consistency, having finished runner-up in all three starts this season, including once over this course and distance. While she is clearly in good heart, she seems to find one too good on the day, and others might possess just a touch more potential for victory.
Holloway Queen was a Listed hurdle winner last winter, showing she has class, but she has been badly out of sorts on her last two starts and makes her chase debut here today. It is a big ask to regain form while tackling larger obstacles for the first time in a race of this nature. Musique De Fee was progressive over hurdles earlier in the year and wasn’t disgraced in a match race on her chase debut, but she will need to step up again.
Ultimately, while the field is packed with exposed runners who have found their level or are battling the handicapper, Alfie’s Princess brings that vital element of the unknown. Her chase debut suggested she has the aptitude for fences, and her pedigree and style of racing suggest that this extended trip could be the making of her. In a race where many have shown their hand, her potential for improvement makes her the most attractive proposition.
Best bet: Alfie’s Princess to win at 2:13 Hereford
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2:25 Ascot – Howden Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1)
Attention turns to the feature race of the day at Ascot, the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle over the staying trip of three miles and half a furlong. This race often separates the true stayers from the pretenders, and this year’s renewal looks particularly intriguing with a mix of established staying stars and younger horses stepping up to test their mettle at the highest level.
The selection is Potters Charm, trained by Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies. This six-year-old put in an eye-catching performance on this course last time out when finishing third in a Grade 2 contest over two miles and three furlongs. That run suggested he was crying out for a stiffer test of stamina. Crucially, he is unexposed over distances of three miles and beyond. In a division that can sometimes look a little stagnant, having a fresh face with the potential to improve for the extra yardage is a significant asset. The stable will be hoping that this step up in distance is the key to unlocking a Grade 1 performance.
He faces stiff competition, most notably from Honesty Policy, who is feared by many. A lightly raced and progressive sort, Honesty Policy has already proven his class by winning and finishing runner-up in Grade 1 novice events. He is high on the shortlist and brings a touch of class to proceedings.
We must also consider the former champion Crambo, who made this race his own in 2023 and 2024. His course record is excellent, but his recent profile suggests he has become inconsistent. While he clearly has the engine to win this, he comes with risks attached given his recent form figures, and others look like much safer propositions today.
Strong Leader is a solid contender who finished a close second to Impose Toi last month. He is better off at the weights with that rival today, which brings him firmly into calculations. Speaking of Impose Toi, the Nicky Henderson runner is an improving seven-year-old who beat Strong Leader in a Grade 2. He may not have reached his limit just yet, and his upward trajectory makes him a dangerous opponent.
Beauport is perhaps better known as a chaser and finished third in this race twelve months ago, but this year’s renewal feels stronger, and he may find things happening a bit too quickly. Colonel Mustard is a veteran who seems better than ever with two recent wins, but this is a much tougher assignment, and he is unproven at three miles. Jet Blue ran a good second in a Grade 1 at Auteuil, but transferring that form to Ascot leaves him with an uphill task.
Taking a chance on the potential of Potters Charm to relish this distance seems the smart play in a fascinating tactical battle.
Best bet: Potters Charm to win at 2:25 Ascot
3:35 Ascot – Ascot Rotary Club Festive Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
The final selection of the day comes in the competitive Premier Handicap Hurdle over just short of two miles. These races are always run at a frantic pace, and luck in running plays a huge part, but we have identified a runner who looks potentially well-handicapped.
Mondo Man, trained by Gary and Josh Moore, gets the verdict. A useful racer on the Flat, he is currently 0-4 over hurdles, which might put some off, but that record masks his potential. He looks well treated for his handicap debut, and the market often underestimates horses with this profile who switch codes and enter handicaps for the first time. If he can translate his Flat ability to this sphere and jump fluently, he is a big player off his current mark.
The dangers are led by Alexei, who is improving quickly. He has won his last two starts, including a victory here at Ascot and another at Cheltenham. He is high on the list and clearly thrives at this track. Wreckless Eric is another who demands respect; he was an unlucky second in the Imperial Cup and had a valid excuse next time out. He still retains potential and is well worth considering.
Faivoir is a veteran of the scene who finished third to Alexei in the Greatwood at Cheltenham. While he is respected, others appeal more for the win given his age and exposure. Fiercely Proud won this race twelve months ago and shaped nicely on his reappearance, making him an interesting contender to defend his crown.
Live Conti is a lightly raced four-year-old who was runner-up in an Aintree Grade 1 novice. He reappears here with stacks of potential and could be anything. Sticktotheplan is a Grade 2 novice winner who was better than the result suggested last time out and should not be dismissed lightly.
However, the allure of a well-handicapped Flat convert is too strong to ignore. Mondo Man may well have been let in lightly, and he is taken to land the spoils.
Best bet: Mondo Man to win at 3:35 Ascot
1:15 Ascot – Karen Codd Novices’ Handicap Hurdle
While this race features a compact field, the data points to a strong showing from Buzz Iceclear. This five-year-old arrives in peak form, having won his last two starts (form figures of 11). Just as importantly, the statistics for this runner are flawless regarding the distance: he has run twice over this trip and won on both occasions, boasting a 100% strike rate for the distance.
His main market rival appears to be Fresh Kicks for Nicky Henderson. The trainer has been in fine form recently with a 26% strike rate over the last 14 days, and the horse brings a last-time-out win to the table. Mount Gay Run for Dan Skelton also enters calculations after a second-place finish last time, but the preference goes to the horse seeking a hat-trick.
Best bet: Buzz Iceclear to win at 1:15 Ascot
🧪 Daily Super Double
(Two of today’s selections combined)
Alfie’s Princess (2:13 Hereford) and Potters Charm (2:25 Ascot)
We are combining our two strongest fancies of the day. Alfie’s Princess is unexposed as a stayer and brings significant potential to the Mares’ Handicap Chase, while Potters Charm looks ready to announce himself on the Grade 1 stage by relishing the step up to three miles. Both horses have profiles that suggest their best days are ahead of them.
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