bet365
BetMGM
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
EasyBet
Will Trump Visit the UK in 2026?
Donald Trump has already weighed in on Britain’s next prime minister — describing Andy Burnham as a “mayor of a town” and “extremely liberal.” We break down the state of UK–US relations, what both sides want, and what the political landscape means for a potential Trump visit in 2026.
A Relationship in Flux
The UK–US relationship has rarely felt as unpredictable as it does right now. Sir Keir Starmer announced his resignation on Monday following mounting pressure from weak poll ratings and disappointing local election results, setting the stage for a leadership contest that could see a new prime minister in place by mid-July 2026.
In the immediate aftermath, Trump offered his first public reaction to the man widely expected to succeed Starmer — former Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham. The US president said he didn’t know much about Burnham, but had heard he was “extremely liberal” — a characterisation Trump paired with a suggestion that Burnham “probably won’t open up the North Sea.”
“I don’t know anything. I see that he was, I guess, the mayor of a town. I hear he’s extremely liberal, extremely, so that means he probably won’t open up the North Sea.”
— Donald Trump, June 2026For context, the US and UK have been navigating a notably rocky patch. Starmer had gone to considerable lengths to maintain goodwill with the Trump administration — including offering an unprecedented second state visit in 2025. Relations then cooled sharply when the UK initially declined a US request to use British military bases for strikes on Iran, before Starmer later granted authorisation.
The question of how a new Labour leader would handle Trump is likely to be one of the defining foreign policy tests of any forthcoming premiership.
Why He Might — and Why He Might Not
Several significant factors point in both directions when weighing up the likelihood of a Trump visit to the UK in 2026. Here is how the picture looks.
G20 Scheduled in the UK Next Year
The UK is hosting the G20 summit of world leaders in 2027, with a smaller G7 gathering the year after. Both are events Trump would be expected to attend, making diplomatic contact almost unavoidable over the coming period — even if a standalone state visit is off the table.
Diplomatic Bridges Can Be Built Quickly
Despite initial tensions, some senior Labour figures have managed to forge meaningful working relationships with the Trump administration. Foreign Secretary David Lammy, for example, built a notable friendship with US Vice President JD Vance. A new prime minister could take a similar approach.
Burnham’s History of Trump Criticism
Burnham has made no secret of his views. In 2017 he publicly stated he would refuse to meet the US president as a matter of principle during a planned state visit, accusing Trump of sharing hateful material online. After the 2021 Capitol riots, he posted that any UK politician who “gave Trump the time of day should be ashamed.” Those words do not disappear.
Trump Has Already Set the Tone
Describing the expected next UK prime minister as “the mayor of a town” — a pointed dismissal of Burnham’s profile — is not the language of a president eager to visit. The North Sea energy dispute also gives Trump a clear grievance to nurse should Burnham, as anticipated, not pivot on that policy.
Geopolitical Pragmatism Often Wins Out
Burnham has generally avoided commenting on foreign policy throughout his time as mayor, keeping his focus on domestic issues. That discipline could serve him well, leaving room for a quietly pragmatic relationship to develop once he’s in Downing Street — even without personal warmth between the two leaders.
Energy Policy as the Key Flashpoint
Trump has been vocal about wanting the UK to expand North Sea oil and gas exploration — and has repeatedly criticised Starmer’s government for moving away from that. Burnham’s position on decisions such as the Jackdaw gas field and Rosebank development will likely define how Trump approaches the bilateral relationship in 2026.
📋 Editorial Verdict
A formal state visit to the UK from Trump in 2026 appears unlikely in the short term, given the combination of Burnham’s vocal past criticism and Trump’s characteristically blunt first reaction. However, a working relationship — brokered through diplomatic channels and shaped by energy policy decisions — is far from impossible. The G20 timetable means the two countries cannot afford a prolonged freeze. How Burnham manages North Sea energy decisions in his early months could be the single biggest indicator of where the relationship heads next.
What Are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets are a different style of wagering from traditional sports betting. Instead of picking a winner from a list of options, you answer a single Yes or No question — and back the side you believe in. There is no team selection, no form guide to trawl, and no complicated accumulator to manage. It is betting stripped back to its most direct form.
Prices on a prediction market are typically displayed as a percentage, reflecting the collective view of how likely an outcome is. A high percentage means a short-priced, more probable result; a lower figure means the market considers it unlikely. On a peer-to-peer exchange such as easyBet, those prices are set by other participants rather than by a bookmaker’s margin — meaning you can take either side of the question.
Political and current affairs markets are a natural fit for the format — they ask exactly the kind of binary questions that prediction markets are built around.
The examples above are illustrative of how prediction market questions are structured. They are not live markets or tips.
How Prediction Markets Work
Choose Your Question
Browse the available markets and find a Yes/No question you have a view on. In political markets this might relate to leadership outcomes, foreign visits, or policy decisions.
Read the Price
Prices are shown as a percentage. If a market shows “Yes” at 30%, it means the market collectively thinks there is roughly a 30% chance of the event happening. A lower percentage means a longer-shot view.
Pick a Side
Decide whether you think “Yes” or “No” is the more likely outcome and place your stake accordingly. On an exchange, you can back the event to happen or lay it (back it not to happen).
Wait for Settlement
Once the real-world outcome becomes clear — for example, whether Trump lands in the UK before a specified date — the market settles and winnings are calculated accordingly.
Pros & Cons of Prediction Markets
Pros
- Simpler format — just Yes or No
- No complex accumulator legs to track
- Works well with current affairs knowledge
- Peer-to-peer pricing can offer better value than traditional bookmakers
- You can take either side of a market
Cons
- Political events are notoriously hard to forecast
- Settlement depends on specific, often loosely defined conditions
- Markets can be illiquid on niche questions
- Emotional involvement in political topics can cloud judgement
- Always carry the same financial risk as any form of betting
Common Mistakes to Avoid
⚠️ Watch Out For
- Letting political bias drive your decisions. Backing something because you want it to happen rather than because you genuinely think it’s likely is one of the most common pitfalls in political prediction markets.
- Misreading percentage pricing. A market at 70% “Yes” does not mean an event is certain — it means the market considers it more probable than not. Plenty of 70% markets resolve as No.
- Staking more than you can afford to lose. No event in politics is a certainty. Always set a stake that you are comfortable losing entirely.
- Ignoring settlement terms. Check exactly how and when a market will settle before placing. “Trump visits the UK” could mean different things depending on the platform’s specific rules.
- Chasing losses. If a market doesn’t resolve the way you anticipated, resist the urge to immediately place a larger stake on the next opportunity. Set a limit and stick to it.
Putting It Into Practice
Using Prediction Markets Around the Trump/UK Story
Suppose a platform is running a market: “Will Donald Trump make a state visit to the UK before 1 January 2027?” — priced at “Yes” 25% and “No” 75%.
Given the analysis above — Burnham’s history of criticising Trump, Trump’s dismissive early comments, and the absence of any confirmed diplomatic initiative — a bettor who agreed with the “No” side of the argument might consider backing that position. In this hypothetical, they place a £5 free bet on “No” at 75%.
If the market settles as “No” (i.e. no state visit occurs before the cut-off), the free bet would return winnings based on the settlement price. If a state visit does happen — perhaps triggered by a G20 pre-summit bilateral — the position would lose.
This is purely illustrative of how a prediction market functions. It is not a tip, recommendation, or any form of guarantee of a particular outcome. Always assess the settlement criteria carefully and only stake what you’re genuinely comfortable losing.
Try Prediction Markets with £30 in Free Bets
easyBet runs a peer-to-peer prediction market exchange where Yes/No questions across sport, current affairs and more are priced by participants rather than a traditional bookmaker margin. New UK customers can currently get started with a welcome offer that provides free bets across both Prediction Markets and the Exchange.
Bet £20, Get £30 in Free Bets
Register with code YES30, settle a £20 qualifying bet on any Prediction Market (max odds 80% / 1.2), and receive 4 × £5 Prediction Market free bets plus 1 × £10 Exchange free bet.
New easyBet users · Debit Card deposits only · 18+ · T&Cs apply
Free Bet Offers
Swipe to see more →
T&Cs Apply. Click to view.
T&Cs Apply. Click to view.
T&Cs Apply. Click to view.
T&Cs Apply. Click to view.
T&Cs Apply. Click to view.
Key Terms Explained
- Prediction Market
- A betting format built around a single Yes or No question. You back whichever outcome you believe is more likely, rather than choosing from a traditional list of selections.
- Percentage Pricing
- The way prices are displayed on some prediction markets — expressed as a probability percentage rather than traditional fractional or decimal odds. A market at 60% implies the event is considered more likely than not to occur.
- Exchange
- A peer-to-peer betting platform where participants bet against each other rather than against a bookmaker. This means prices are determined by supply and demand among users, and you can take either side of a market.
- Lay
- On a betting exchange, laying means backing an event not to happen — effectively acting as the bookmaker for another participant. If the event occurs, you pay out; if it doesn’t, you collect the stake.
- Settlement
- The process by which a market is resolved once the real-world outcome is known. Settlement criteria — the exact conditions that determine Yes or No — are set out by the platform in advance and should always be read carefully.
- State Visit
- An official, ceremonially formal visit by a head of state at the invitation of another country’s government or head of state. A working visit or summit attendance does not typically qualify as a state visit.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Trump visit the UK in 2026?
A Trump visit to the UK in 2026 looks unlikely in the near term but cannot be entirely ruled out. The incoming prime minister Andy Burnham has a well-documented history of criticising Trump, while Trump himself has already described Burnham in dismissive terms. However, broader diplomatic and multilateral commitments — including the UK hosting the G20 summit — mean some form of engagement between the two governments is probable over the coming years.
What did Trump say about Andy Burnham?
In comments made in late June 2026, Trump described Andy Burnham — widely expected to become the next UK prime minister — as “the mayor of a town” and as “extremely liberal, extremely.” He added that Burnham’s likely political outlook meant he probably wouldn’t agree to open up the North Sea for further oil and gas drilling, which has been a consistent request from the Trump administration to successive UK governments.
Why did Keir Starmer resign as UK prime minister?
Starmer announced his resignation following sustained pressure over weak opinion poll ratings and poor results in local elections. His departure set off a Labour Party leadership contest, with Burnham emerging as the only declared candidate at the time of writing, with a potential appointment as prime minister expected by mid-July 2026.
What is the North Sea dispute between the US and the UK about?
Trump has repeatedly urged successive UK prime ministers to expand oil and gas exploration in the North Sea, arguing it would boost energy security. The Starmer government’s preference for renewable energy over new fossil fuel extraction has been a point of friction. With specific developments such as the Jackdaw gas field and Rosebank pending decision, Burnham will face an early test of how he navigates this pressure from Washington.
What is a prediction market and how does it work?
A prediction market is a betting format built around a simple Yes or No question — for example, “Will Trump visit the UK before the end of 2026?” You choose which side you believe is the more likely outcome and place a stake accordingly. On a peer-to-peer exchange, prices are set by other participants and shown as percentages, where a higher figure means the market considers that outcome more probable.
How is a prediction market different from traditional sports betting?
Traditional sports betting typically involves picking from multiple outcomes — match results, goalscorers, handicaps — often within an accumulator structure. A prediction market simplifies this to a single binary choice: Yes or No. There are no legs to combine, no complex pricing structures to navigate, and on an exchange format, no bookmaker margin in the traditional sense — prices are driven by what other participants are prepared to accept.
Is political betting on events like Trump’s UK visit legal in the UK?
Political betting is legal for UK customers on platforms licensed by the UK Gambling Commission. easyBet operates via Triplebet Limited under a UK Gambling Commission licence. As with any form of betting, it is available to customers aged 18 and over, and all normal responsible gambling obligations apply.
What does it mean that Burnham refused to meet Trump “as a matter of principle”?
In 2017, Burnham publicly stated he would decline to meet Trump as a matter of personal principle during a planned state visit, citing what he described as Trump sharing hateful extremist material online. He also called on the then prime minister Theresa May to withdraw her invitation for a state visit. Those statements, made before Burnham became a national party leadership figure, represent on-record positions that add to the sense of distance between the two men.
How do I claim the easyBet YES30 free bet offer?
New easyBet customers register using bonus code YES30, deposit via Debit Card, and then place a first bet of £20 on any Prediction Market at maximum odds of 80% (1.2). Once that qualifying bet settles, the account is credited with 4 × £5 Prediction Market free bets and 1 × £10 Exchange free bet. Only the first stake qualifies, and placing multiple bets in the same market or trading the qualifying selection will void the reward. Full terms apply — see the terms section below.
Can I use the easyBet free bets on political prediction markets?
The 4 × £5 Prediction Market free bets from the YES30 offer can be used on any of easyBet’s Prediction Markets, and the 1 × £10 free bet is for use on the easyBet Exchange. Whether specific political markets are available at any given time depends on easyBet’s live market listings. Check easyBet’s platform directly for current market availability.
Betting Safely
🛡️ Keep It Enjoyable
Betting on political events can feel compelling when you’re following the news closely — but opinions about outcomes are not the same as reliable predictions. Only ever stake amounts you’re comfortable losing entirely. Set a budget before you start, use deposit and stake limits where your platform offers them, and stop if betting stops being enjoyable. If you ever feel that betting is affecting your wellbeing or finances, visit BeGambleAware.org for free, confidential support. 18+ only.
New easyBet users only. Register with Bonus Code: YES30. Bet and Settle £20 on any predictions market. Max odds of 80% (1.2). Only first stake will qualify. Once qualified user will receive 4 x £5 Free Bets and 1 x £10 Bet to use on easyBet Exchange. Users placing multiple bets in same market or trading qualifying selection will not receive free bets. Deposits via Debit Card only. 18+ Only. T’s and C’s Apply. Be Gamble Aware.
18+ · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
Content correct as of 25 June 2026. Analysis is editorial opinion only — not financial or betting advice.
easyBet is operated by Triplebet Limited, licensed by the UK Gambling Commission.
