Man City Guilty: We Rebuilt Every Table From 2009 to 2018. Here’s Who Really Lost Out

Manchester City have reportedly been found guilty of 114 of the 115 Premier League charges. So who actually lost out between 2009 and 2018, which titles could change hands, and how much could rival clubs claim? We rebuilt every league table from the charged period, season by season, to find out.

What City were found guilty of

The Premier League referred City to an independent commission in February 2023. The case covers nine seasons of financial reporting, from 2009-10 to 2017-18, plus a later period in which the league says the club failed to co-operate with its investigation. The hearing ran from September to December 2024, and the reported verdict arrived almost two years later.

The 115 charges break down into five groups. We do not yet know which single charge was dismissed, because the written judgment has not been released.

The allegations first surfaced through the Football Leaks documents published by Der Spiegel in 2018, which suggested that money from the club’s Abu Dhabi ownership had been routed through sponsors such as Etihad and Etisalat, and that former manager Roberto Mancini had received payments through a consultancy arrangement with a club in Abu Dhabi. City have always denied wrongdoing and maintain that they hold comprehensive evidence in their favour.

One key difference from City’s earlier fight with UEFA matters here. In 2020 the Court of Arbitration for Sport overturned UEFA’s two-year European ban and cut the fine to €10m, partly because some of the allegations were time-barred under UEFA’s rules. The Premier League process has no equivalent time bar, which is why the whole 2009 to 2018 period is in play this time.

Can titles actually be taken away?

The sanctions available to the commission are set out in rule W.51 of the Premier League handbook. They run from a reprimand and fine, through points deductions, up to expulsion from the league. Crucially, reports on the verdict state that points deductions can be applied retrospectively as well as in the current season. A retrospective deduction large enough to drop City below the runners-up in a title-winning season would, in practice, mean that title was no longer theirs.

What the rules do not clearly say is who gets the trophy instead. European football offers two different models, and they point in opposite directions.

The honest position is that no English top-flight title has ever been stripped for financial reasons. If City lose any of their titles, the Premier League would be writing new history, and the “vacate or reassign” question would itself become a legal fight.

The alternative honours roll: every season without City

This is the core of our study. For each season in the charged period, we removed Manchester City from the final table and moved every club below them up one place. That is the cleanest way to measure what City’s presence cost each rival. Cup qualification knock-ons assume the cup results themselves stand.

Eight of the nine seasons change something that matters. Three change the champion. Eight change who plays in the Champions League. Only 2009-10, City’s first full season under Abu Dhabi ownership, leaves the top four untouched.

Season by season: who was damaged and how

The damage ledger: club by club

Put the nine seasons together and a clear hierarchy of victims appears. The table below counts only direct, measurable losses from our reconstruction.

Tottenham: the biggest victim nobody talks about

The public debate has centred on titles, but by our count no club lost more to City’s rise than Tottenham. Four Champions League campaigns in five seasons is an enormous sum of prize money, gate receipts and commercial leverage, and it arrived during the years Spurs were trying to fund a new stadium and keep players such as Luka Modrić and Gareth Bale. There is an uncomfortable irony in the timing, too: Spurs sit bottom of the Premier League in the opening weeks of 2026-27.

Manchester United: a record extended

Two extra titles would take United to 22 English league championships, restoring a clear lead over Liverpool. Ferguson would finish with 14 Premier League titles rather than 13, and Mourinho would have delivered the club’s first post-Ferguson league win.

Liverpool: 2014, finally

Liverpool would move to 21 league titles. Emotionally this is the most charged reassignment in the whole case, because it rewrites the story of Gerrard’s career and the 30-year wait that ended in 2020.

Everton: the forgotten claimant

Everton lose one Champions League campaign and three Europa League places on our reconstruction, as many lost European seasons in total as Tottenham. They are not among the four clubs reported to have lodged protective notices in 2024, which could leave them facing a limitation argument. Their lawyers could point to deliberate concealment, which under English law can delay the point at which the limitation clock starts, but that would be a fight of its own.

Arsenal and Chelsea: one season each, with a twist

Arsenal lose one Champions League campaign and the 2018 League Cup final. Their claim is reported to be one of the most advanced, and they were said to be the first club to preserve it. Chelsea gain a 2018-19 Champions League place in our reconstruction, although they won the Europa League that season instead, which would reduce any loss they could show.

Who is entitled to compensation, and how much?

Premier League rules stop member clubs suing each other directly in the courts. Disputes between clubs go to private arbitration under Section X of the rulebook. That is the route Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham used in late 2024, when they lodged notices to protect their position before a possible six-year limitation deadline linked to the 2018 Football Leaks disclosures. Reports say those clubs have lawyers instructed, and that any claims are expected to follow City’s appeal.

There are two recent English precedents. In 2009 Sheffield United won an arbitration against West Ham over the Carlos Tevez affair and later settled for a sum reported at around £20m. More recently, Everton settled a claim with Leeds over lost revenue connected to Everton’s own spending breach. Both cases involved a single season and a direct link between the breach and a league position. City’s case is on a different scale.

The causation problem

A claimant club will not win simply because City broke the rules. It must show that the breaches changed the sporting outcome and that its own loss followed from that change. City will argue that their squad would have been largely the same without the disputed income, that other clubs spent heavily too, and that league positions depend on hundreds of variables. Arbitrators are likely to treat many claims as a lost chance rather than a certain loss, and discount the award accordingly.

Our direct-loss model

To give readers a sense of scale, we built a simple model. It uses indicative values for the period rather than any club’s actual accounts. A lost Champions League campaign is valued at £35m to £55m, covering UEFA prize money, TV pool share, matchday income and commercial bonuses. A lost title is valued at £10m to £25m, covering merit payments and sponsorship triggers. A lost Europa League campaign is valued at £5m to £15m. The “realistic award” column applies a loss-of-chance discount and reduces claims where the club recovered the loss elsewhere.

Our model is deliberately narrow. Clubs’ own calculations, which reports put above £100m for some individual claimants and above £200m combined for the four big clubs, are likely to add wider arguments: inflated transfer fees and wages across the market, lost sponsorship value, and the knock-on effect of repeatedly missing the Champions League on recruitment. Those arguments are harder to prove but could push headline figures much higher.

What about relegated clubs?

If City’s results were expunged entirely rather than simply sliding them down the table, every season’s points totals would be recalculated and relegation places could change. That is the only way clubs such as the relegated sides of 2009-10 to 2017-18 would have a claim. We consider it very unlikely: no sanction currently under discussion would expunge nine seasons of results, and proving that a financial breach at City caused another club to go down would be close to impossible.

The four sanction scenarios

The commission’s sanction will shape everything else. These are the realistic routes, from most to least likely in our editorial view.

What it means for 2026-27

The verdict lands with City top of the table. Under new head coach Enzo Maresca, who replaced Guardiola in the summer, they won their first five league games and lead defending champions Arsenal by three points going into the international break. Their next league fixture is away at Liverpool on 11 October.

No sanction can bite until the process, including City’s appeal, is complete. The original plan was for the entire case to be settled within one season of the hearing, and that has already slipped by well over a year, so a sanction affecting this season is far from certain. If a deduction does land before May 2027, Arsenal are the most obvious beneficiary. If it is delayed to 2027-28, the title race after next becomes the one that is distorted.

For bettors, this adds a genuine unknown to every City market, from title and top-four odds to relegation specials. Until the sanction is known, any price on City reflects on-pitch form plus a legal risk that no model can price with confidence.

What happens next

1. Written judgment published. The Premier League releases the commission’s reasons, which will confirm the dismissed charge and show which seasons the findings cover.
2. Sanction decided. The commission sets the punishment under rule W.51, if it has not done so alongside the judgment.
3. City appeal. The club is expected to challenge the findings and any sanction through the Premier League’s appeal process, and possibly beyond it in the courts on procedural grounds.
4. Sanction takes effect. Only once appeals are exhausted does any deduction apply, which will decide which season is affected.
5. Compensation claims activated. Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham move from protective notices to full arbitration. Other clubs decide whether to try their luck despite limitation risks.
6. Settlements or awards. Arbitration is private, so the first sign of outcomes may be reported settlements rather than published rulings, as in the Everton and Leeds case.

Methodology and limitations

Our season reconstructions remove Manchester City from each final Premier League table between 2009-10 and 2017-18 and move every club below them up one place, keeping their actual points totals. This measures the positional cost of City’s presence. It does not attempt to replay matches or remove City’s results, which would change other clubs’ points in unpredictable ways. Where European qualification depended on domestic cup winners, we assume the cup results stand and apply the qualification rules in force at the time.

The compensation model uses indicative values for the period, not club accounts, and is intended to show scale rather than predict awards. Arbitration outcomes will depend on evidence that is not public. The charge breakdown reflects the Premier League’s February 2023 announcement; the final judgment may show that findings differ by season.

Frequently asked questions

Have Man City officially been found guilty?

The verdict of guilt on 114 of the 115 charges was reported on 25 September 2026 and the club has not denied it. The Premier League has not published the ruling and has declined to comment on a confidential process.

Will Man City be stripped of their titles?

It is possible but not the most likely outcome. Retrospective points deductions are reported to be available, and three City titles fall within the charged period: 2011-12, 2013-14 and 2017-18. Titles won from 2018-19 onwards fall outside the financial charges.

Who would win Man City’s titles if they were stripped?

On the final tables, Manchester United would be champions in 2011-12 and 2017-18, and Liverpool in 2013-14. The league could also choose to leave the titles vacant.

Which clubs can claim compensation from Man City?

Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham lodged notices in 2024 preserving their right to claim through Premier League arbitration. Our analysis suggests Everton and Chelsea also suffered measurable losses, but they are not reported to have taken the same step.

How much compensation could clubs receive?

Reports suggest more than £100m for some individual clubs and more than £200m across the four claimants. Our narrower model puts theoretical headline claims across all affected clubs at roughly £335m to £615m, with realistic awards between about £95m and £305m.

Which club lost the most because of Man City?

Tottenham, who on our reconstruction lost four Champions League campaigns: 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2014-15.

Could Man City be relegated?

Expulsion and large points deductions are among the available sanctions, but a deduction applied in a single current season is the most likely outcome. Relegation would only follow if the deduction were big enough to drop City into the bottom three.

When will the punishment be announced?

No date has been given. City are expected to appeal, and any sanction only takes effect once that process is complete.

This article reflects reports available on 26 September 2026 and will be updated when the Premier League publishes the commission’s ruling and any sanction. Compensation figures are BettingTips4You model estimates, not reported claims or awards. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.