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Accumulator tips for NFL Sunday: The NFL regular season has reached its crescendo, and Week 16 brings us to that strange, fascinating point of the calendar where motivation varies wildly from franchise to franchise.
Why this pick
Arizona’s defence has collapsed, conceding 40 or more points in four of their last six defeats. They have lost 11 of 12 games, while Atlanta arrive fresh from a "mini-bye" after back-to-back wins. With the Cardinals playing so poorly, the Falcons are primed to cover the handicap.
Why this pick
Detroit are due a bounce-back win following their loss to the Rams. Jared Goff is in elite form with six touchdowns in three games, whereas the Steelers are depleted by injuries to T.J. Watt and their offensive line. Detroit’s offence should overwhelm a weakened Pittsburgh side.
Why this pick
Houston are on a six-game winning streak, with C.J. Stroud completing over 75% of his passes last week. In contrast, the Raiders were shut out 31-0 recently and have only covered the spread five times this season. The gulf in class makes a heavy Texans victory the logical pick.
Why this pick
Despite their winning streak ending, New England remain statistically superior, ranking 6th in offensive EPA compared to Baltimore's 20th. The Ravens’ recent win was unconvincing offensively, while the Patriots boast a strong 61.5% record against the spread. Taking the points with the better team is the smart play.
This four-fold bet targets teams with clear motivational and statistical advantages. We are backing the Lions and Falcons to exploit depleted opponents, expecting the Texans to rout a lifeless Raiders squad, and taking the points with a Patriots team that remains statistically superior to their hosts.
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Some teams are battling tooth and nail for seeding, while others are already planning their holiday vacations. This disparity often creates lopsided matchups, but it also opens doors for savvy bettors who can identify where the motivation—and the talent—truly lies.
Our analysis team has scoured the Sunday slate to identify four selections that offer solid value. From teams looking to cement their playoff status to squads simply playing for pride against crumbling opposition, here is our four-fold accumulator for Sunday’s action.
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Today’s Experts NFL Accumulator Tip
Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons
Rationale The Arizona Cardinals are currently a team in freefall, having lost 11 of their last 12 games. Their defensive unit appears to have completely downed tools, conceding a staggering 45 and 40 points in their last two outings respectively. In fact, during their current six-game losing streak, they have allowed opponents to score 40 or more points on four separate occasions. Facing a defence this porous is a dream scenario for any visiting team.
In contrast, the Atlanta Falcons arrive in the desert with renewed confidence. They have won two consecutive games, including an upset over the NFC South-leading Buccaneers last Thursday. That result not only kept their competitive fire alive but also granted them a “mini-bye”, ensuring they are well-rested for this trip. While Kirk Cousins and Jacoby Brissett may not be the most dynamic quarterback duo in the league, the Falcons are putting forth a solid effort that Arizona simply cannot match. With Raheem Morris having his squad playing confident football against arguably the worst team in the NFL, backing the visitors to cover a field goal is a logical play.
Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons -2.5
Detroit Lions vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Rationale The Detroit Lions have been locked into a peculiar pattern of alternating wins and losses since Week 5, and if that trend holds, they are due for a victory this Sunday. They are coming off a high-scoring 41-34 loss to the Rams, but there is no shame in falling by a single possession to one of the NFC’s elite. Crucially, quarterback Jared Goff is in fine form, having surpassed the 300-yard mark in two straight games and thrown six touchdowns without an interception in his last three starts.
The Pittsburgh Steelers, however, are limping into Ford Field. Their defence is expected to be without star pass rusher TJ Watt due to a lung injury, while defensive tackle Keeanu Benton and cornerback James Pierre are questionable. The issues extend to the offensive line, where Andrus Peat, Isaac Seumalo, and Zach Frazier are all carrying injury designations. This spells trouble for their 42-year-old quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, who is far less effective when under pressure. With the Lions playing at home and the Steelers depleted in the trenches, Detroit looks to be at least a touchdown better than their opponents.
Best Bet: Detroit Lions -6.5
Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders
Rationale This matchup at NRG Stadium features two teams heading in completely opposite directions. The Houston Texans (9-5) are riding a six-game winning streak and looking to solidify their playoff positioning. Their offence is humming under C.J. Stroud, who completed nearly 76% of his passes for 260 yards and three touchdowns in their recent 40-20 demolition of Arizona. With weapons like Nico Collins finding the end zone twice last week and a ground game that produced over 100 yards from Jawhar Jordan, Houston has too much firepower for the visitors.
The Las Vegas Raiders (2-12) are coming off a demoralising 31-0 shutout loss to the Eagles. Quarterback Kenny Pickett threw for just 64 yards and an interception in that contest, highlighting the depths of their offensive struggles. Las Vegas has managed just five wins against the spread in 14 games this year, and they are facing a Texans team that has covered the spread in eight of their 14 outings. The disparity in form and morale here is massive, suggesting a comfortable double-digit victory for the hosts.
Best Bet: Houston Texans -14
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Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots
Rationale The Baltimore Ravens may have secured a necessary win against Cincinnati last week, but the Bengals’ failure to score a single point masked some underlying issues for the home side. Baltimore still ranks a lowly 20th in total offensive EPA and 16th in defence. Their secondary is a particular concern, allowing 233.3 passing yards per game (26th in the league) and generating very little pressure on opposing quarterbacks (31st in sack percentage).
The New England Patriots, despite seeing their 10-game winning streak snapped by Josh Allen and the Bills in Week 15, remain the superior team statistically. They rank 6th in total offensive EPA and 12th in defensive EPA. Under Mike Vrabel, they have been one of the most consistent teams in the NFL, boasting a point differential of +7.6—bettered only by the Seahawks and Rams. The Patriots have been a “well-oiled machine” for months and are one of the best teams against the spread this season (61.5%). Getting a field goal start with the better team is an opportunity too good to pass up.
Best Bet: New England Patriots +3.0
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