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Hugo Ekitike: Over 1.5 Shots On Target
- Shot Volume: Ekitike is highly active in front of goal, accumulating 65 shots across 28 matches this season.
- Accuracy: He maintains a 29% shot accuracy, resulting in 19 shots on target so far.
- Penalty Box Presence: With 136 touches in the opposition box, he is consistently positioned for high-quality attempts.
- Match Context: Facing his former club PSG, Ekitike enters with 11 goals and a primary striker role in a team averaging 16.45 shots per game.
Mohamed Salah: Over 1 Shot
- High Frequency: Salah averages 2.82 shots per 90 minutes, totalling 57 shots this season.
- Sustained Pressure: He has registered 158 touches in the opposition box, leading Liverpool’s attacking metrics.
- Consistency: Liverpool’s aggressive attack averages 16.45 shots per match, providing Salah with constant opportunities.
Dominik Szoboszlai: To Be Booked
- Card History: Szoboszlai is a high-risk disciplinary candidate with 7 yellow cards and 1 red card this season.
- Foul Volume: He has committed 28 fouls over 2,603 minutes of play.
- Defensive Load: Liverpool’s average of 1.49 yellow cards per match suggests a high-intensity defensive approach in European away legs.
Ousmane Dembele: To Score or Assist
- Playmaking Hub: PSG average 69% possession and 17.1 shots per game, with Dembele at the core of their creative right flank.
- Dominance: PSG have scored 17 goals in their last 6 matches, netting in every single one of those fixtures.
- Opposition Weakness: Liverpool have conceded 7 goals in their last 6 outings, failing to keep a clean sheet in 5 of them.
Essential Props Betting FAQ
What counts as a Shot on Target (SOT)?
A shot on target is defined as any goal attempt that goes into the net or would have gone into the net if not for a save by the goalkeeper or a clearance by the last defender. Hits against the woodwork do not count as shots on target.
What happens if my player is substituted?
Once a player steps onto the pitch, the bet is live. If they are subbed off after 5 minutes, the bet stands based on whatever they achieved in those 5 minutes. If they are subbed on late, the bet is also live.
Do cards for managers or bench players count?
No, only cards shown to players currently active on the field of play count towards player prop or total card markets. Cards shown after the final whistle or to players already substituted off are usually excluded.
How is possession percentage used in props?
High possession (like PSG’s 69%) typically leads to higher shot volumes for their attackers and higher foul counts for the team defending without the ball, making it easier to predict shot and card props.
Why do odds fluctuate before kick-off?
Odds move based on team news, injuries, and the volume of money being placed on specific players. If a key creator is injured, the shot props for the remaining strikers may shorten as they are expected to take on more responsibility.
Detailed Match & Props Q&A
Does Hugo Ekitike have a realistic chance of 2+ shots on target?
Hugo Ekitike is highly likely to test the keeper at least twice given his season tally of 19 shots on target and 136 touches in the opposition box. His 29% accuracy rate combined with Liverpool’s high attacking volume (16.45 shots per game) creates the perfect environment for multiple accurate attempts.
What makes Dominik Szoboszlai a primary candidate for a card?
Szoboszlai has already received 7 yellow cards and 1 red card this season, demonstrating a frequent disciplinary involvement. Since he has committed 28 fouls and Liverpool are facing a PSG side that dominates 69% of the ball, he will be under immense pressure to commit tactical fouls.
Will PSG’s high possession affect Liverpool’s shot props?
While PSG are expected to hold roughly 69% of the ball, Liverpool still average 16.45 shots per game through quick transitions. This means players like Mohamed Salah, who has 57 shots this season, will still find opportunities on the counter-attack despite having less of the ball.
How vulnerable is the Liverpool defence to PSG’s attackers?
Liverpool’s defence has conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches, showing a significant lack of stability. PSG’s scoring surge of 17 goals in 6 games suggests that their front three, including Kvaratskhelia and Dembele, will find ample opportunities to register goal involvements.
What is the “To Score or Assist” market?
This market, also known as Goal Involvement, wins if your selected player either scores a goal or provides the final pass for a teammate to score. It is an excellent way to cover creative players like Dembele who are equally adept at finishing and playmaking.
Are player props voided if a player starts on the bench?
If a player is not in the starting XI, most bookies will still count the bet as “live” if they come on as a substitute. However, if they remain an unused substitute, the stake is typically refunded to the bettor.
Why are aerial duels important for props?
Stats show PSG are very weak in aerial duels, which benefits Liverpool players like Virgil van Dijk or Hugo Ekitike in headed shot markets. Since Liverpool are strong in the air, they are likely to win headers from corners and set-pieces.
Does PSG’s offside trap impact player props?
Yes, PSG’s reliance on a high-risk offside trap can lead to fewer shots on target if attackers are caught out. However, if Liverpool’s runners like Salah (57 shots) time their runs correctly, it leads to high-quality 1v1 chances against the keeper.
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