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Anfield’s High-Stakes Duel: Can Liverpool’s Firepower Breach the City Wall? Here’s our Bet Builder pick for Liverpool vs Man City,which has been placed with Bet365:
Why this pick
Liverpool have found their rhythm at exactly the right time, scoring 15 goals in their last four matches. Their superior shot volume (15.5 per match) and xG (1.75) at home make them favourites to overcome a City side that has conceded first in 19 of 24 games.
Why this pick
The striker is a high-volume shooter with 51 attempts this season, mostly from inside the box. His physical presence and Liverpool’s reliance on through balls make him the prime candidate to test the keeper at least twice.
Why this pick
Salah’s 116 touches in the opposition box lead the team. As the primary creative and finishing force in Szoboszlai's absence, his tendency to cut inside and shoot, combined with penalty duties, ensures high shot accuracy.
This 18/1 selection leverages Liverpool’s current attacking momentum and their statistical dominance in shot volume at Anfield. By backing the home win alongside the shooting proficiency of Ekitike and Salah, the bet aligns with a game state where Liverpool’s high-pressure transitions exploit City’s habit of conceding early and struggling against pace.
The floodlights at Anfield are set to illuminate a fixture that feels like a definitive crossroads for the 2025/2026 Premier League season. Liverpool enter this weekend’s clash eight points adrift of second-placed Manchester City, a gap that looks daunting on paper but feels bridgeable given the current atmospheric shift on Merseyside. After a stuttering start to the calendar year defined by frustrating stalemates, the Reds finally rediscovered their clinical edge with a ruthless demolition of Newcastle.
In contrast, City arrive with their typical aura of mechanical control, sitting comfortably in second place and boasting a defensive record that remains the envy of the division. This isn’t just a battle for points; it is a collision between Liverpool’s chaotic attacking volume and City’s calculated precision. At Anfield, where the noise usually translates into momentum, the opening exchanges will likely dictate whether this becomes a high-speed chess match or a frantic punch-up.
Liverpool vs Man City Bet Builder Tip
FT Result: Liverpool
The momentum in the title race has taken a visible turn toward the red half of Merseyside. Liverpool’s recent 4-1 victory over Newcastle was not merely a three-point haul; it was a revitalisation of the relentless, high-octane attacking identity that has made Anfield a graveyard for visiting teams. Liverpool have now hammered home 15 goals in their last four matches across all competitions, suggesting that their forward line is operating at a level of synchronization that few defences can withstand. While Manchester City sit six points and four places higher in the table, the underlying metrics suggest that Liverpool are the team currently dictating terms on the pitch.
Tactically, Liverpool are a side built on volume. They average 15.5 shots per match, a figure that dwarfs City’s 14.1. This relentless pressure is supported by a league-high average possession of 61.5%, allowing them to suffocate opponents in their own half. While City are equally comfortable with the ball, sitting at 59.5%, they have shown a recurring vulnerability to the very things Liverpool do best: pace and direct transitions. City’s defensive structure, while theoretically sound, has a habit of leaking the first goal—something they have done in 19 of their 24 league matches this season. Falling behind at Anfield is a precarious position to be in, as the crowd intensity often amplifies the pressure on a trailing team.
Furthermore, Liverpool’s Expected Goals (xG) of 1.75 per match edges out City’s 1.67, indicating that the chances being created at Anfield are of a higher quality. City may possess a more disciplined defensive profile, with a 42% clean sheet rate compared to Liverpool’s 29%, but they struggle against sides that can exploit the space behind their high defensive line. Liverpool’s tactical preference for attacking down the wings and utilizing individual skill to unlock deep blocks aligns perfectly with City’s occasional weakness in defending counter-attacks. With the stakes so high and the need to close the eight-point gap providing a massive incentive, the home side enters this contest as the cleaner angle for victory. City’s machine-like control is formidable, but Anfield has a unique way of making even the most organised machines malfunction under pressure.
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Hugo Ekitike: 2+ Shots on Target
Hugo Ekitike has rapidly emerged as the focal point of a Liverpool attack that looks more dangerous with every passing week. The young Frenchman’s statistical profile is that of a pure volume shooter, making him the primary candidate to test the City goalkeeper multiple times. This season, Ekitike has already bagged 10 goals in 15 starts, but it is his shot map that reveals his true value to this Bet Builder. He has recorded 51 shots in total, with a significant 38 of those coming from inside the penalty area. This highlights a striker who is consistently positioned in high-value zones, benefitting from a Liverpool system that prioritises getting the ball into the box via short passes and wing play.
Ekitike averages 3.4 shots per 90 minutes, and with 17 of his total efforts hitting the target this season, his accuracy is a constant threat. His physical profile—standing at 190 cm—gives him a distinct advantage against a City backline that can occasionally be outmuscled. He isn’t just a target man, though; his 27 successful dribbles show he has the technical ability to create his own shooting lanes. Against a City side that plays an aggressive offside trap, Ekitike’s timing and pace will be vital. Given that Liverpool shoot more than any other side and generate the highest xG, the Frenchman will likely be the beneficiary of numerous through balls—a scenario where he has already shown he can excel. His recent performance against Newcastle, where he was a constant menace in the final third, suggests he is in the perfect headspace to find the target at least twice in a game of this magnitude.
Mohamed Salah: 2+ Shots on Target
In a fixture of this significance, Mohamed Salah remains the inevitable heartbeat of the Liverpool offence. With Dominik Szoboszlai sidelined through injury, a greater share of the creative and finishing burden falls upon the Egyptian’s shoulders. Salah’s presence in the opposition box is nearly unparalleled; he has recorded 116 touches in that zone this season, the highest in the squad. This proximity to goal translates directly into shooting opportunities. Salah has fired 40 shots in the Premier League this term, with 13 of those hitting the target. As the team’s primary outlet on the right wing, he consistently cuts inside onto his preferred left foot to test the keeper from range or during fast-break situations.
Salah’s role is further amplified by his status as the designated penalty taker, providing an additional route to a shot on target should the game become physical in the area. His individual skill is a noted tactical strength for Liverpool, and against a City defence that can be caught out on the break, he is the most likely player to exploit those moments of transition. He has created 38 chances this season, but his primary instinct remains goal-bound. In a match where Liverpool are expected to dominate territory and shot volume, Salah’s historical tendency to rise to the occasion in “Big Six” clashes makes him a virtual certainty to be peppering the City goal. His accuracy and volume make the prospect of him recording at least two shots on target a logical extension of Liverpool’s overall game plan.
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