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Can Salford City turn Peninsula momentum into an FA Cup breakthrough against Ian Holloway’s Swindon? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale▾
Both meetings this season ended 3-2. Salford’s 14.5 shots per game combined with Swindon’s aerial strength against a depleted defense ensures a high-scoring game.
Read Rationale▾
Salford’s 7-game unbeaten run and home form provide the edge. While Swindon likely score, Salford’s higher shot volume should secure a narrow 2-1 win.
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Salford City vs Swindon Town Predictions and Best Bets
Salford vs Swindon — William Hill Market Snapshot
Market highlights and implied probabilities based on listed William Hill prices.
- Home edge, head-to-head: Salford have won their previous two home games against Swindon, including a 3-2 thriller in September at the Peninsula Stadium, and Swindon still haven’t beaten them in this recent run.
- Form that bites: Salford are unbeaten in seven league matches and have taken four wins in their last five, while Swindon arrive with four wins in their last six — both sides walking in with real edge.
- Shots, ball, and intent: Over the season run, Salford fire 15.16 shots per game to Swindon’s 12.55, while Swindon complete passes at 72% to Salford’s 68% — volume vs control, straight up.
Attacking Volume: Shots per League Game
Both sides display high offensive intent, with Salford leading in pure shot frequency.
A relentless approach that forces defensive errors through consistent pressure.
Productive output supported by high possession and wing-play crossing volume.
Aerial Dominance: Duels Won
Success in the air could be a decisive factor given the defensive profiles of both teams.
Recent data suggests a struggle against physical front lines in high-ball situations.
Heavy reliance on target forwards like Ollie Palmer to secure the second ball.
The FA Cup doesn’t do comfort — and this all–League Two tie at the Peninsula Stadium has the feel of a proper scrap for momentum as much as progress. A place in the fourth round is on the line, and both clubs arrive with confidence: Karl Robinson’s Salford riding a seven-game unbeaten league run, Ian Holloway’s Swindon carrying their own punchy sequence of wins.
There’s also a twist: this is the first hit of back-to-back meetings, with Salford heading to the County Ground for a league fixture on January 17. That makes this one more than a cup night — it’s a tone-setter. Salford want history, chasing a first-ever FA Cup fourth-round appearance. Swindon want to crash the party with a possession-heavy approach that can suffocate a match.
Team News & Lineups
Team News (Absences)
- Salford City:
- Adebola Oluwo — yellow card suspension
- Oliver Turton — meniscus injury
- Josh Austerfield — ankle injury
- Swindon Town:
- No injuries or suspensions listed.
Probable Lineups
Salford City (possible):
Young; Turton, Oluwo, Garbutt; Mnoga, Cesay, Grant, Butcher, N’Mai; Borini, Udoh
Swindon Town (possible):
Ripley; Wright, Tafazolli, Mabete; McGregor, Kilkenny, Nichols, Munroe; Oldaker; Drinan, Palmer
What it means
Salford’s issue is obvious: the listed XI includes Oluwo and Turton, both unavailable, and Austerfield is also out. That’s disruption in key defensive/structure areas, in a side that already carries a weakness defending wide attacks and aerial duels. Swindon’s likely front pairing of Aaron Drinan and Ollie Palmer will smell that.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Salford City | Swindon Town |
|---|---|---|
| League Two points (from 24 matches) | 43 | — |
| League Two goals (25 apps) | 38 | 41 |
| Shots per game (League Two) | 14.5 | 12.6 |
| Possession % (League Two) | 51.0% | 53.2% |
| Pass % (League Two) | 66.7% | 71.9% |
| Aerials won (League Two) | 25.3 | 30.6 |
| Clean sheets (overall listed) | 8 | 11 |
| Yellow cards (overall listed) | 69 | 73 |
| Fouls (overall listed) | 409 | 364 |
Salford look like the side that force the issue: higher shot volume, directness, and a habit of playing in the opposition half. Swindon look cleaner on the ball with higher possession and pass accuracy, and they bring a more reliable aerial platform. Put it together and the match shape screams tension: Salford want to speed it up; Swindon want to slow it down — then hurt you in the wide areas.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Salford’s plan: punch through the middle, early and often
Robinson’s Salford have a clear attacking identity: through balls, long balls, and a willingness to take a lot of shots. They’re also strong on counter-attacks and attacking set pieces, with a real knack for creating chances and even digging themselves out of trouble when they fall behind.
That matters here because Swindon’s biggest defensive soft spot is specific: they can be vulnerable against through ball attacks. That’s basically an invitation to Salford’s preferred rhythm. Expect Salford to look for runners breaking from central areas — quick vertical passes, second balls, and a constant effort to get the game played at Salford speed.
Key faces to watch in that approach: Daniel Udoh (7 league goals, 6 assists) as the connector and finisher, with Kelly N’Mai arriving in moments — and he’s already shown he can decide games late, with a New Year’s Day winner in a 2-1 away victory at Barrow.
Swindon’s plan: keep it, stretch it, and finish it
Holloway’s Swindon lean into possession football and short passing, with an offside trap and a preference for operating in their own half before stepping up. They’re also very strong attacking down the wings, and they back themselves to finish chances and protect a lead once they get it.
That wide threat is not a small detail. Salford’s defensive profile includes a weakness defending down the wings, and they’re also vulnerable in aerial duels — labelled very weak. That’s dangerous against a Swindon side with strong aerial duels, and a front man in Ollie Palmer who wins 6.4 aerials on average, alongside Drinan, who has 14 league goals and brings a direct goal threat.
Where it swings: chaos vs control
This fixture has produced goals recently — including Salford 3-2 Swindon in September and Swindon 2-3 Salford on January 17 — and that’s the clue. Salford’s dangerous attacks number stands out (1849 to Swindon’s 1334), suggesting they manufacture threatening moments even without dominating the ball.
But Swindon’s cleaner passing (71.9%) and slightly higher possession (53.2%) can take the sting out of frantic spells — if they avoid the one thing they can’t afford: getting split by those early, direct balls in behind.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces and second balls: Salford are strong on attacking set pieces, but Swindon’s aerial numbers suggest they can fight back hard in the air. First contact and knockdowns could decide whole phases.
- Wide overloads: Swindon’s wing strength meets Salford’s wing weakness — if Swindon pin back the wide players, Salford’s midfield runners may be forced deeper and lose their launchpad.
- Discipline and dangerous areas: Salford’s profile includes an issue avoiding fouls in dangerous zones, and the overall foul count is high (409). Cheap free-kicks could be a self-made storm.
- The finishing duel: Swindon bring a proven scorer in Drinan (14); Salford bring a more spread threat with Udoh (7) plus Oluwo/Harris/N’Mai/Cesay all on 4 league goals.
What could go wrong?
For Salford, the risk is structural: defensive absences collide with a side that attacks wide and dominates aerial contests. For Swindon, it’s the opposite: try to play with control, but get picked off by one vertical pass too many — and suddenly you’re chasing a game at Salford tempo, exactly where Robinson’s side are happiest.
Best Bet for Salford City vs Swindon Town
Can Salford City turn Peninsula momentum into an FA Cup breakthrough against Ian Holloway’s Swindon?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Scoring | Salford 38 goals; Swindon 41 goals | Over 2.5 Goals |
| History | Two 3-2 results in last 2 meetings | BTTS & Over 2.5 |
| Volume | Salford 14.5 shots; Swindon 12.6 | Over 1.5 Home Goals |
| Defense | Salford missing 3 key defensive starters | BTTS: Yes |
Over 2.5 Goals
Salford City and Swindon Town enter this FA Cup clash as two of the most statistically aggressive sides in League Two. The primary driver for a high-scoring encounter is the sheer volume of offensive activity both teams generate. Salford City average 14.5 shots per game, a figure that rises to 15.16 in specific match runs, while Swindon Town contribute a healthy 12.6. This high shot-to-goal conversion has already defined their recent head-to-head history.
The two previous meetings between these clubs this season resulted in identical 3-2 scorelines. This pattern of five-goal thrillers is not a coincidence; it is a direct consequence of their tactical profiles. Salford City prefer to force the issue through direct balls and vertical through passes. This directly exploits Swindon Town’s specific defensive weakness against through-ball attacks.
Conversely, Swindon Town possess a significant aerial advantage, winning 30.6 aerial duels per game compared to Salford’s 25.3. With Salford missing key defensive personnel like Adebola Oluwo and Oliver Turton, they are exceptionally vulnerable to Swindon’s wide attacks and aerial threats. Aaron Drinan, who has 14 goals this season, and Ollie Palmer, who wins over six aerial duels per match, are perfectly positioned to punish a disrupted Salford backline.
Furthermore, Salford’s tendency to commit fouls in dangerous areas—accumulating 409 fouls overall—provides Swindon with set-piece opportunities. Given Salford’s “very weak” rating in defending aerial duels and wide areas, the probability of multiple goals being scored by both sides is high. Both teams have everything to gain from a cup run, and neither side has shown the defensive stability required to keep a clean sheet in this fixture.
What could go wrong?
The primary risk to a high-scoring game is Ian Holloway’s preference for possession. If Swindon Town successfully use their 71.9% passing accuracy to keep the ball in their own half and slow the tempo, they could starve Salford’s attackers of service. A tactical stalemate where Swindon prioritize control over expansion could lead to a lower-scoring affair than the statistics suggest.
Correct Score Lean
Salford City 2-1 Swindon
Salford City’s home advantage and current seven-game unbeaten league run provide them with the momentum to edge this contest. While Swindon’s aerial dominance and possession-heavy style will likely result in a goal—especially considering Salford’s defensive absences—Salford’s superior shot volume (14.5 per game) and ability to create chances through direct play should see them through. Their previous home victory against Swindon (3-2) in September proves they can navigate this specific opposition. A 2-1 result reflects both teams’ attacking efficiency while acknowledging the high stakes of a knockout cup tie which often tightens in the final minutes.
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