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After a four-week winter hibernation, elite golf returns to our screens this Thursday as the European circuit launches its 2026 campaign in the United Arab Emirates. Read on for the best bet of the night and the analysis in addition to the best betting offers to take full advantage of.
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Golf betting tips: Dubai Invitational Predictions
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Nicolai Hojgaard has the length to dominate the par-fives and the recovery stats to handle the trouble at Dubai Creek. Ranked 4th in the field for world ranking points accumulated over the last six months, he represents the perfect blend of proven quality and winning form at a price that offers significantly more reward than the market leaders.
- Tommy Fleetwood arrives in dominant form, having accumulated 152.28 World Ranking points since July 1st—the highest total in the field.
- Joost Luiten has ranked in the top-25 for Greens in Regulation in five of the last six DP World Tour seasons.
- The Championship Course at Dubai Creek measures just 7,059 yards, placing a premium on precision and accuracy rather than brute force.
Dubai Invitational 2026 — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key outright and contender markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365-style odds based on our analysis of the Dubai Creek field.
Rory McIlroy and defending champion Tommy Fleetwood dominate the early prices, with the bookies giving them a combined ~39% chance of victory.
Outside the “Big Two”, the market is open. Nicolai Hojgaard and Shane Lowry lead the chasing pack with strong credentials for desert conditions.
With a high-quality field, markets suggest a tight finish similar to last year’s 1-shot victory, with UK & Irish golfers favored to lift the trophy.
Markets implying strong confidence in McIlroy and Fleetwood securing Top 5s, while Hojgaard is seen as a solid value play for a Top 10 finish.
The Dubai Invitational marks the beginning of the International Swing, bringing a star-studded cast to the sun-baked fairways of the Middle East.
We are back at the Dubai Creek Resort, a venue that provided a thrilling backdrop for the inaugural edition two years ago. The setup here is unique compared to the standard tour grind; this is a limited field of just 60 professionals playing alongside 60 amateurs in a Pro-Am format for the first three days, before the professionals battle it out alone on Sunday.
Recent Form: World Ranking Points Gained
A comparison of total world ranking points accumulated since July 1st, highlighting the momentum of the field’s top players.
Fleetwood’s dominant second half of 2025, including the FedExCup, sees him arrive in Dubai as the clear form player in the field.
Ranked 4th in this metric across the entire field, Hojgaard has quietly outperformed many established names leading into the new year.
Power Game: Driving Distance (2025)
Dubai Creek offers opportunities for long hitters to attack par-fives. Here is how our key contender stacks up against the tour average.
Ranked 2nd on tour last season for distance, giving him a significant advantage on the scoring holes this week.
The standard tour player gives up over 25 yards off the tee compared to Hojgaard’s explosive power.
Scrambling: Sand Save Percentage
With plenty of bunkers guarding the greens, the ability to recover is vital. This metric tracks percentage of “Up & Downs” from sand.
Ranked 4th on tour last season, proving he has the touch to escape trouble when his aggressive approach finds sand.
The tour average is significantly lower, highlighting Hojgaard’s elite ability to save par from difficult positions.
The headlines naturally gravitate toward the heavyweights. Rory McIlroy arrives in Dubai fresh off a history-making 2025 season where he completed the career Grand Slam and helped Europe retain the Ryder Cup at Bethpage. He is joined by the defending champion, Tommy Fleetwood, whose dramatic birdie-birdie finish in 2024 remains fresh in the memory. However, beyond the marquee names, the field is stacked with narrative threads, from LIV Golf entrants like Patrick Reed and David Puig to rising Scandinavian stars who graduated to the PGA Tour last year.
The Dubai Creek course, a par 71 measuring 7,059 yards, is not a test of brute force alone. With lush rolling fairways and the ever-present threat of water hazards guarding the creek, it demands precision. Yet, as we saw in the latter half of last season, class is permanent. When the PGA Tour and LIV players began filtering into DP World Tour events late last year, the cream consistently rose to the top. This week promises a similar wrestle for dominance between the established hierarchy and the hungry chasing pack.
The Heavyweights and The Chasing Pack
It is impossible to ignore Rory McIlroy this week. The Northern Irishman is the 7/2 favourite and for good reason. He simply adores this part of the world and is bidding to win the Race to Dubai for a record-equalling eighth time. His 2025 was nothing short of sensational, capped by completing the career Grand Slam and winning BBC Sports Personality of the Year. He finished second here two years ago and will be desperate to go one better. However, at such a short price in the first week of the year, he offers little in terms of betting leverage compared to the rest of the field.
Tommy Fleetwood, the defending champion, is available at 5/1. He produced a masterclass here in 2024 to edge out McIlroy and returns as the reigning FedExCup champion. Like McIlroy, his form is undeniable—he has accumulated more World Ranking points (152.28) than anyone else in the field since July. He is arguably playing the best golf of his life, but repeating a victory is notoriously difficult, and his price reflects his status as the man to beat.
Further down the order, the “International Swing” brings several other interesting characters into focus. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen is available at 22/1. His rise has been meteoric, securing three wins on the Challenge Tour before graduating and winning the Australian Open late last year. He is a player brimming with confidence.
Similarly, Thorbjorn Olesen (22/1) is a specialist in desert conditions. He has a sharp short game and isn’t reliant on distance, which often suits the intricate nature of Dubai Creek. His eighth-place finish here in 2024 shows he can navigate this layout.
South African Jayden Schaper (14/1) is another name drawing attention. He ended 2025 on a heater, winning the Alfred Dunhill Championship and Mauritius Open. However, his odds are surprisingly short for a player stepping up against a field of this depth. While his form is hot, asking him to topple McIlroy, Fleetwood, and Hojgaard at 14/1 feels like a big ask for bettors seeking value.
Finally, keep an eye on Shane Lowry (16/1). The Irishman is seeking his seventh DP World Tour victory and has a superb record in the UAE, including a win in Abu Dhabi. He finished the year with solid top-12s in the region and, if his p
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At BettingTips4you.com, we believe in clarity and accountability. Rather than spraying the board with a dozen “value” plays that leave you wondering where to actually place your faith, we publish one primary pick per event.
We do not claim to have a crystal ball, nor do we promise guaranteed profits. Golf betting is inherently volatile, especially at the start of a new calendar year when competitive rust can play a factor. Our goal is to cut through the noise, analyze the available evidence, and provide a reasoned, logical selection for the week ahead.
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Nicolai Hojgaard to Win @ 16/1
While the top of the market is dominated by Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood, the smartest play this week lies slightly further down the list. Nicolai Hojgaard enters 2026 with a profile that suggests he is ready to add another prestigious title to his collection, and at 16/1, he offers a compelling blend of elite talent and recent form.
Rationale
The case for the young Dane is built on a combination of sustained momentum and overwhelming physical capability. When analyzing who has been playing the best golf leading into this new year, Hojgaard is statistically one of the most dangerous players in the field.
Looking at the accumulation of World Ranking points since July 1st of last year, Hojgaard ranks fourth in this entire field, having amassed 61.99 points. This places him ahead of notable contenders like Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen and Thriston Lawrence. He was a winner during the second half of last season, proving he can close out tournaments when the big names are in town. In a limited field of 60 where quality often suffocates the lower-ranked players, Hojgaard has firmly established himself in that upper echelon of “tour winners” who are difficult to beat.
Physically, his 2025 statistics paint the picture of a player who can overpower any layout. He ranked second on the tour for Driving Distance, averaging a massive 323.14 yards off the tee. While Dubai Creek is often described as a plotter’s course due to the water, possessing that level of firepower allows a player to take aggressive lines and turn par-fives into routine birdie opportunities.
Crucially, his game is not one-dimensional. While his accuracy off the tee can occasionally waver, his recovery play is elite. In 2025, he ranked fourth on tour in Sand Saves, getting up and down from the bunker 65.79% of the time. On a course where water and sand protect the scoring zones, having that defensive safety net is vital. Furthermore, his Greens in Regulation percentage was a very solid 69.60% (ranking 30th), showing that his iron play complements his length.
There is also a sense that the market has not quite adjusted to his standing in the game relative to the favourites. Observers noted that Hojgaard—along with his brother Rasmus—should likely be clear fourth or fifth favourites in an event of this magnitude. When you consider his pedigree and the fact he outperformed the vast majority of this field over the last six months, backing him to start 2026 with a victory makes strategic sense.
What could go wrong?
The primary risk with Hojgaard is always the driver dispersion. He ranked 120th in Driving Accuracy in 2025, hitting just over 56% of fairways. Dubai Creek is a venue that punishes wayward drives severely, with water hazards lurking to ruin scorecards. If the “big miss” shows up early in the week, he could find himself fighting to make par rather than attacking flags. Additionally, he is up against Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood in their adopted backyard; both men have impeccable records in the UAE and beating them is arguably the toughest task in European golf.
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