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Can Girona blunt Mallorca’s aerial threat and find a route out of the relegation zone? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Both teams average over 54% possession and play attacking styles. Swansea are dominant at home, but Birmingham’s high shot volume (14 per game) makes them a constant scoring threat.
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67% of the last six meetings between these clubs have ended in draws. Their league stats for possession and passing accuracy are nearly identical, suggesting a balanced contest.
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Mallorca vs Girona Predictions and Best Bets
Mallorca vs Girona — bet365 Market Snapshot
Pricing shown below is informational. Any probabilities shown are implied from the listed odds.
Mallorca enter as home favourites following a seven-match unbeaten streak at Son Moix.
Low-margin results are priced prominently for this encounter at Son Moix.
- A striker driving the story: Vedat Muriqi has 9 La Liga goals and averages 4.4 aerials won per game, shaping Mallorca’s direct threat and box presence.
- League context is tight: Mallorca are 14th with 18 points from 17 matches, while Girona are 18th with 15 from 17, making this a key gap to manage.
- Home resilience meets away struggle: Mallorca are unbeaten in their last 7 home La Liga matches, while Girona have suffered 4 defeats in 8 away league games.
Defensive Profile: Goals Conceded Comparison
The contrast in defensive stability has defined both teams’ positions in the league table so far.
With Vedat Muriqi contributing nine of these, the home side relies on physical efficiency in the box.
An average of nearly two goals per game highlights the defensive challenges facing the visitors.
Individual Impact: Key Attacking Stats
The striker’s aerial dominance is a core feature of Mallorca’s direct attacking style.
Despite their league position, the visitors maintain high technical accuracy when in possession.
Girona head to Mallorca on Sunday evening with the kind of league position that makes every away trip feel like a referendum. They start the weekend 18th in La Liga with 15 points from 17 matches, and the task is clear enough: find a way out of the relegation zone without letting the occasion turn frantic. Mallorca, 14th with 18 points from the same number of games, sit only a few steps above them, which gives this fixture a slightly edgy feel. It’s not a derby, but it has that “six-pointer without anyone daring to say it” energy.
The setting is Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, where the home side have been hard to shift in the league. Girona, by contrast, arrive needing to show they can manage the ugly parts of an away performance: dealing with direct spells, defending second balls, and keeping concentration when the ball isn’t theirs.
With both teams tending to operate in their own half, and both happy to play with width and long balls in their respective styles, this has the look of a match shaped by moments rather than long, flowing dominance. A loose touch here. A set piece there. A striker winning his duel at the back post. That sort of night.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Mallorca’s possible starting XI is Román; Maffeo, Valjent, Raíllo, Mojica; Morlanes, Sánchez; Joseph, Darder, Virgili; Muriqi. That reads like a 4-2-3-1, which matches Mallorca’s most-used shape in the season’s formation summary. The structure puts Muriqi up top as the reference point, with a trio behind him that includes a clear creative supply line: Virgili has four assists and Mojica has three, while Darder and Raíllo have one each.
The headline number in Mallorca’s team is Muriqi’s nine goals. It’s not just that he scores; it’s how he plays. He averages 4.4 aerials won per match and 2.7 shots per game, which points towards a forward who can turn direct service into possession and turn possession into attempts. If Mallorca want to make this a night of crosses and knockdowns, the pieces are right there.
Girona’s possible starting XI is Gazzaniga; Rincón, Reis, Blind, Moreno; Tsygankov, Martínez, Witsel, Martín, Gil; with the final attacking line entry unclear as it ends with “Mallorca”. Even so, the names suggest a back four with Moreno and Blind involved, and a midfield/attacking unit that includes creators and carriers. Girona’s formation summary also lists 4-2-3-1 as their shape in the sampled matches, with Ounahi and Gil featuring prominently in that line-up.
The attacking production in Girona’s squad is spread. Ounahi has three goals and an assist with a high rating, Tsygankov has three goals and two assists, Vanat has three goals, and Stuani has three goals despite limited minutes. Gil’s three assists also stand out as a genuine chance-creation outlet, and it gives Girona a route to hurt Mallorca without needing to dominate the ball.
How the Match Could Be Played
This feels like a contest of competing “comfort zones”. Mallorca are described as playing with width, attacking down the left, using long balls, and often playing in their own half. Girona, too, are described as playing in their own half and attacking down the right, with strengths that include creating long shot opportunities and creating chances using through balls.
So rather than a match where one side hogs the ball and the other clings on, it could become a game where both teams are happy to wait for the right trigger. The triggers themselves are likely to be very specific: a turnover in midfield, a full-back caught too high, a runner slipping into the half-space, or a set piece won through pressure.
Mallorca’s most obvious route is direct and physical. With Muriqi’s aerial output and Raíllo’s own 3.2 aerials won per match, the home side have players who can make long balls and crosses more than just hopeful punts. The supporting cast reinforces it. Mojica and Virgili offer assist numbers that suggest delivery is a feature rather than an accident, and Joseph can operate wide as a forward-type who can run beyond and also arrive for second balls. If Mallorca build their attacks down the left, you can expect Mojica and Virgili to be key figures in creating overloads or isolations in wide areas.
Girona’s defensive weaknesses, however, include aerial duels and defending set pieces being weak. That’s a red flag against a team with a nine-goal striker who wins 4.4 aerials per game. Girona may need their centre-backs to be aggressive in front of Muriqi rather than reactive behind him, because once he’s allowed to pin and win first contact, Mallorca can live around the box with second balls and repeat deliveries.
On the other side, Girona’s strengths hint at a different kind of danger. Creating chances using through balls is marked as strong, and that’s exactly the sort of weapon that can punish a team that plays in its own half but steps out at the wrong moment. If Tsygankov and Gil are involved in the right-hand lanes, Girona can look to combine and slip runners in behind, rather than simply matching Mallorca’s long-ball approach.
There’s also the long-shot angle. Both sides are flagged for long shots in their styles or strengths, and Mallorca are specifically marked as very weak at defending against long shots. That is a very particular vulnerability: even if Mallorca keep their shape and crowd the box, shots from distance can still appear if the midfield line doesn’t engage quickly enough. Girona’s squad includes several players with goals from midfield areas, and while the match-up doesn’t promise a barrage of clear one-on-ones, it does suggest the edge of the box could be a live zone.
This is also where discipline and game management come in. Girona’s weakness list includes avoiding fouling in dangerous areas being weak, and Mallorca’s team includes players with red cards noted in their season lines. In a game likely to feature long balls, aerial contests, and repeated duels, set-piece moments can accumulate. If one side starts giving away cheap restarts around the box, the match can swing without either team needing a spell of dominance.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
The league table frame is tight. Mallorca are 14th with 18 points from 17 games; Girona are 18th with 15 points from 17. That’s the difference between breathing space and heavy breathing.
Mallorca’s output is slightly stronger going forward: 19 goals scored in 17 matches, with 10.4 shots per game. That suggests a team that doesn’t create huge volumes, but does enough to stay competitive and — crucially — has a striker converting chances at a decent clip. Muriqi’s nine goals represent nearly half of Mallorca’s total, which tells you where the finishing responsibility sits.
Girona’s numbers tell a different story. They’ve scored 15 goals in 17 matches but conceded 33, and that concession figure matters because it shapes how they have to play away from home. Even if they’re capable of creating through balls and long-shot chances, they also need to manage risk without the ball. Their pass completion is high at 84.7% and their possession is listed at 46.9% in La Liga, which suggests they can keep it when they choose to — but possession without protection can become a problem when you’re prone to individual errors and weak at defending set pieces.
There are also contrasting patterns in the “home and away” notes. Mallorca are unbeaten in their last seven home La Liga matches, and their recent home match list shows three wins and three draws from the last six, with no defeats. Girona’s away record in the league includes four losses in eight away matches. That combination matters because it hints at how the opening phase might feel: Mallorca can start with confidence at Son Moix, while Girona may need to weather an early spell without conceding cheap territory.
And then there’s the match texture. Under 2.5 goals has landed in four of Mallorca’s last six home matches, and that suggests a certain rhythm: tight margins, controlled risk, and games that don’t always open up. If this becomes another low-scoring home match for Mallorca, Girona’s margin for error is thin — but the same dynamic can also keep them in the contest deep into the night.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first moment to watch is the aerial battle around Muriqi. Nine goals and 4.4 aerials won per match is a combination that can define a fixture. If Girona allow Mallorca to land early crosses with time and space, the home side can lock the game into a pattern they like: repeat deliveries, knockdowns, and pressure from sustained territory.
Next, keep an eye on long-shot zones. Mallorca are flagged as very weak defending against long shots, and Girona are strong at creating long-shot opportunities. That clash could show up in the way Girona build attacks: draw Mallorca into a compact block, recycle the ball to the edge of the area, and try to hit clean strikes through traffic. Even one or two shots that force a scramble can shift momentum and force Mallorca’s midfield to step out more aggressively.
Then there’s the creative duel. Virgili has four assists and Mojica has three for Mallorca, while Girona’s Gil has three and Tsygankov has two. Those numbers matter because they point to where the game’s decisive passes might come from. It may not be a night of endless chances, but it can still be a night where one pass across the face, one reverse ball, or one early cross creates the decisive opening.
What could go wrong with this read? The game could become messy in ways neither side controls. A low block can collapse from one poor clearance. A long-ball match can be decided by an odd bounce. And in a fixture where both teams have shown red cards in the disciplinary lines and where set-piece defence is flagged as a weakness for Girona, the fine margins can be both predictable and completely random at the same time.
Best Bet for Mallorca vs Girona
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Mallorca to win
The logical conclusion for this matchup is a home victory for Mallorca. The Balearic side has established a high level of consistency at Son Moix, where they have avoided defeat for several months. Their tactical identity underpins this success; they are a side comfortable defending in their own half and waiting for high-leverage opportunities to strike. This patient approach is perfectly suited to exploiting a Girona defense that has been remarkably porous this season, averaging nearly two goals conceded per game.
The most decisive factor in this match is likely to be the physical mismatch in the final third. Mallorca’s primary attacking outlet, Vedat Muriqi, is a specialist in aerial combat, winning 4.4 duels per match and leading the team with nine goals. Girona have been explicitly flagged as weak when defending aerial situations and set pieces. With Mallorca’s wide players, such as Jan Virgili and Johan Mojica, having already combined for seven assists this season, the service into Muriqi should be frequent and high-quality. If Girona cannot handle the first contact in their own box, they will likely be pinned back under sustained pressure.
Furthermore, Mallorca’s defensive stability at home—where they have seen Under 2.5 goals in four of their last six—suggests they possess the discipline to shut down Girona’s spread-out attack. While Girona can be dangerous through the creativity of Bryan Gil and Viktor Tsygankov, their inability to convert possession into away points has been a recurring theme. Given Mallorca’s seven-game unbeaten home run and Girona’s status in the bottom three, the evidence strongly points toward the hosts securing all three points.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to a Mallorca win lies in Girona’s proficiency from distance and through-balls. Mallorca are noted as being very weak at defending against long shots, and if Girona can recycle the ball to the edge of the area for players like Tsygankov, they could snatch a goal against the run of play. Additionally, both squads have shown disciplinary issues with multiple red cards this season; an early dismissal for the hosts would drastically alter the tactical balance and negate their home advantage.
Correct score lean: Mallorca 2-0 Girona
A 2-0 victory for the home side aligns with the statistical trends of both teams. Mallorca have been solid at home but are not typically high-scoring, often preferring to control the tempo once they have a lead. Girona’s defensive record is poor, particularly away from home, making it likely they will concede multiple times under the pressure of Muriqi’s aerial presence. Given that Girona have struggled to find the net consistently—scoring only 15 goals in 17 matches—a clean sheet for a well-drilled Mallorca side in front of their own fans is a highly plausible outcome.
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