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Can England Salvage Pride or Will the Aussie Juggernaut Roll On?
With the Ashes urn safely retained by Australia and the series scoreline reading 3-0, the Boxing Day Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) might theoretically be a dead rubber, but for the tourists, there is still plenty at stake. Read on for the best bet for this event and the analysis in addition to the best betting offers to take full advantage of.
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Cricket betting tips: Australia v England Fourth Ashes Test predictions
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With Jofra Archer likely rested and the remaining seamers struggling for discipline or experience, England’s attack lacks a spearhead. In a match defined by pride, Ben Stokes is the logical candidate to step up, bowl the hard overs, and capitalise on a sporting MCG wicket to lead the wicket-taking column.
- Scott Boland claimed figures of 6-7 against England at the MCG in the 2021 Ashes.
- Since 2013, Australia have won 16 of their 18 home Test matches against England.
- Boland has taken 123 first-class wickets at the MCG since his debut in 2011.
Australia vs England — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Australia remain heavy favourites to extend their series dominance, though England’s price offers some appeal for the brave.
Enhanced prices available for Harry Brook to find form and England to clear the ropes in a victory.
Steve Smith and Travis Head lead the market to top score in the first innings at the MCG.
Duckett and Brook are key to England’s hopes, with attractive prices for them to reach 50 or 100 runs.
While the tourists briefly flickered with resistance in Adelaide, threatening a miraculous fourth-innings heist before falling 82 runs short, the series has largely been defined by Australian dominance. Now, Joe Root, Ben Stokes and the rest of the squad arrive at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) with only pride left to play for.
History: Australia Home Dominance
Since 2013, Australia’s record on home soil against England has been nothing short of imperious, leaving the tourists with a mountain to climb.
Australia have won 16 of the last 18 home Tests against England, with the only blemishes being two draws.
It has been 15 years since England famously won by an innings and 157 runs at the MCG to retain the Ashes.
Key Player: Scott Boland at the MCG
With Cummins and Lyon out, local specialist Scott Boland’s phenomenal record at this venue becomes the defining stat of the match.
Boland has taken at least 49 more wickets at the MCG than any other player in that timeframe.
Recent Sheffield Shield games suggest a sporting pitch where scores over 250 are hard to come by early on.
The atmosphere in Melbourne will be electric, as it always is for this festive sporting tradition, but the mood in the two camps could not be more different. Australia have spent the aftermath of their Adelaide victory celebrating, while reports suggest England’s tour has been as much about “knocking back pints” as it has been about performance.
With the pressure off, however, dead rubbers often produce strange results. Can England finally find a way to win their first Test down under since 2011, or will the Australian juggernaut roll on towards a whitewash?
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The MCG Factor and Team News
The venue itself presents a fascinating challenge. The MCG pitch, once the flattest in the world, has undergone a “conscious effort” to become more sporting. In the 2021 Ashes, this surface saw England rolled for 185 and 68 as seam and swing dominated. Recent Sheffield Shield games confirm this trend, with 256 being the highest score across first and second innings in three matches this season. This suggests a low-scoring affair where accurate seam bowling will be king.
Australia, however, are not at full strength. Captain Pat Cummins is out with a bone stress injury, and Nathan Lyon has been ruled out with a hamstring issue. This leaves the hosts relying on Mitchell Starc, who may be “weary” after his exertions, and local hero Scott Boland. Boland’s record here is formidable—he took 6-7 in 2021—but the absence of Cummins and Lyon certainly weakens the home side’s stranglehold.
For England, the batting remains a headache. Harry Brook has struggled with foot movement against the moving ball, averaging just 28.83, while Ben Duckett is yet to reach triple figures cumulatively for the series. Jacob Bethell is tipped to replace Ollie Pope, but whether a rookie can solve the top-order collapse is debatable.
Best Bet
At BettingTips4you.com we publish ONE primary pick per event to keep things clear and accountable. While team news is fluid for this dead rubber, we have identified a market where the likely team composition offers a distinct angle of attack.
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Ben Stokes Clear Top England Bowler (1st Innings) at 4/1
With the series lost, England are expected to ring the changes to manage workloads and trial personnel, and this creates a unique opportunity in the bowling markets. The most significant factor here is the likely absence of Jofra Archer. The source notes that Archer “should surely be rested” after a “monstrous workload” in the series so far, which included a five-wicket haul in the third Test. If England’s most reliable bowler is indeed put on ice, the attack loses its spearhead.
This leaves a bowling unit that has struggled for consistency. Brydon Carse is England’s leading wicket-taker, but his “limitations have been brutally exposed” in Australian conditions. Meanwhile, replacements like Matt Fisher are described as “grinders” rather than strike bowlers, and Matthew Potts is seen as offering control rather than destruction. In this vacuum of proven threat, the responsibility falls squarely on the shoulders of captain Ben Stokes.
Stokes is a player who thrives on “pride” and leading from the front—qualities England desperately need as they play for respect. The text highlights that England’s bowlers “haven’t had enough discipline” throughout the tour. In the absence of Archer, and with the other seamers either inexperienced or struggling, it is highly logical to expect Stokes to take the new ball or bowl extended spells to set the standard himself.
What could go wrong? The obvious risk is Stokes’ own fitness. As an all-rounder and captain, he manages his own workload, and if he decides to play as a specialist batter to preserve his body, he may not bowl the overs required to take wickets. Additionally, if Gus Atkinson or Josh Tongue are recalled and find rhythm on a “sporting” MCG pitch, they could easily out-bowl the skipper.
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