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The racing calendar for Tuesday 23rd December presents a fascinating mix of international action, taking us from the floodlights of Happy Valley in Hong Kong to the Polytrack at Deauville in France.
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Sharpened by his return to hurdling, Ballyburn is almost sure to be involved. He holds a perfect three-from-three record at Leopardstown and is unbeaten on yielding ground. While he narrowly lost to Teahupoo at Fairyhouse, his flawless venue record and expected fitness progression support him turning the tables here.
Summary: Sharpened by his return and boasting a 100% course record → Ballyburn
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This six-year-old impressed on his chase and handicap debut at Southwell. He could easily make light of the 8lb rise. While Hecouldbetheone found the ground too soft, The Bluesman faces exposed rivals like Stratagem. His trainer Olly Murphy has a 25% strike rate, and the horse has won 67% at this distance.
Summary: Impressed on chase debut and can defy the weight rise → The Bluesman.
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Conyers Hill brings strong form from two good runs at Cheltenham and a second over this course and distance. He is taken to score in this competitive handicap. Trainer Paul Nolan’s runner faces rivals with vulnerabilities, such as Dancing Jeremy lacking a recent run and Ballybawn Belter remaining a maiden over fences.
Summary: Good Cheltenham form and course proven → Conyers Hill
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A breakthrough win looks very near for this consistent maiden who performed well in both prior chases. Rivals face issues: Pep Talking bled last time, and Flamelco finished remotely at Aintree. Two To Tango offers a reliable profile against opponents with significant questions like recent falls or poor form.
Summary: Consistent maiden ready for a breakthrough win → Two To Tango.
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Ballyburn reverses form with Teahupoo thanks to his 100% course record at Leopardstown and increased sharpness. He combines with Two To Tango, who has performed well in both chase starts and is very near a breakthrough victory against erratic opposition.
- Ballyburn has a 100% win record (3-3) at Leopardstown.
- Teahupoo has a 75% win record (3-4) on the prevailing going.
- The Bluesman has won 67% of his races (2-3) at the 2m4f distance.
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The cards are stacked with competitive handicaps, but a close inspection of the form books, course statistics, and trainer comments reveals several runners who appear poised to outrun their odds.
At Happy Valley, the focus is heavily on course specialists and trainers currently enjoying a purple patch, while in France, a claimer for three-year-olds offers a distinct tactical battle between two emerging rivals.
Here are the best selections for Tuesday’s racing.
12:10 Happy Valley – Jupiter Handicap (Div I)
Rationale
In the competitive world of Hong Kong handicap racing, finding a horse who combines course affinity with a significant drop in class is often the key to unlocking value. For the Jupiter Handicap (Div I) over six furlongs, the data points quite clearly toward the top weight, Sugar Sugar.
The most compelling argument for this seven-year-old is his remarkable record at this unique city track. Happy Valley is a tight, turning circuit that often catches out the inexperienced, but Sugar Sugar is the definition of a course specialist. The facts show he returns to his favourite venue sitting on six course-and-distance victories. This level of proven ability over the specific conditions of Course C on the turf cannot be overstated.
Furthermore, the context of his recent form suggests this race represents a strategic target. He is dropping in class for this contest. While his recent form figures—876867—might not immediately jump off the page to the casual observer, the move down to Class 4 company significantly eases the calibre of opposition he faces.
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To capitalise on this drop in grade, connections have reached for a gear change. Sugar Sugar will wear a first-time visor today. The application of new headgear is frequently used to sharpen a horse’s focus and spark a return to form. The combination of the class drop, the return to his most successful hunting ground, and the visor suggests a maximum effort is expected. The statistical breakdown further supports his claims, with a course strike rate of 19% (6 wins from 32 starts) over the last five seasons.
Best bet: Sugar Sugar to win at 12:10 Happy Valley
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1:10 Happy Valley – Saturn Handicap
Rationale
Moving to the 1:10 Saturn Handicap over the extended trip of 1m3f, we find a contest where stamina and recent form progression are paramount. The verdict for this race points explicitly to Enthralled, and the supporting facts make a robust case for this runner.
The most immediate positive is the booking of champion jockey Zac Purton. Purton is currently operating at a 17% strike rate over the last 14 days and has a 19% strike rate overall. His presence in the saddle is often a signal of intent, and he takes the ride on a horse that appears to be turning a corner.
Enthralled is described as having “recently emerged from a slump in form.” This revival was evidenced by his latest run at Sha Tin over 1m1f, where he “kept on for fourth.” That effort suggests that his fitness and enthusiasm are returning. Crucially, today’s step up to 1m3f is noted as a move that “ought to suit.” If he was keeping on at the finish over nine furlongs, the extra distance here should allow him to travel comfortably and utilise his stamina in the closing stages.
The handicapper has also given him a chance. The data states he “remains well handicapped,” implying that his current rating is below his peak capability. When you combine a well-handicapped horse showing signs of a resurgence with the top jockey at the track, the ingredients for a winning performance are present.
Best bet: Enthralled to win at 1:10 Happy Valley
1:45 Happy Valley – Jupiter Handicap (Div III)
Rationale
In the third division of the Jupiter Handicap, a purely statistical approach highlights Rewarding Buddy as the standout contender. While this race is open, the form of the trainer is often the most reliable pointer, and F C Lor is currently the trainer to follow.
The data reveals that F C Lor has been operating at an exceptional 29% strike rate over the last 14 days, yielding a massive level stakes profit of +11.20. When a yard is in this kind of form, their runners often outperform market expectations.
Rewarding Buddy brings consistent recent form to the table, reading 007252. His second-place finish last time out demonstrates that he is competitive and knocking on the door. With odds listed at 5.60, the market recognizes his chance, and he appears the safest proposition to capitalise on his stable’s current hot streak. By contrast, other market principals lack the same combination of recent consistent placings and high-performing stable backing.
Best bet: Rewarding Buddy to win at 1:45 Happy Valley
3:15 Deauville – Prix de Bourgeauville
Rationale
Switching continents to the all-weather surface at Deauville, the Prix de Bourgeauville is a claimer for three-year-olds over 1m1½f. In these types of races, recent collateral form is often the best guide, and the data highlights a developing rivalry between two horses: Hermes Wood and Keanu.
Preference goes to Hermes Wood based on his trajectory and consistency. He boasts a form line of 260421, culminating in a win on his last start. The comments note that he has had “close finishes with Keanu on last two outings.” This consistency suggests he is reliable in this grade. Furthermore, the data notes he is with a “new yard.” A change of scenery can often invigorate a horse, and if the new connections have found even a small amount of improvement, it could be the deciding factor in confirming superiority over Keanu.
While Keanu won on the first occasion they met, the fact that they have been locked together in close finishes suggests there is very little between them. However, Hermes Wood’s profile appears slightly more progressive coming off that recent ‘1’ in the form book.
Best bet: Hermes Wood to win at 3:15 Deauville
🧪 Daily Super Double
(Two of today’s selections combined)
Sugar Sugar (12:10 Happy Valley) and Enthralled (1:10 Happy Valley)
This double targets the strongest profiles at Happy Valley. Sugar Sugar is a six-time course-and-distance winner dropping in class with a first-time visor. Enthralled is highlighted as the verdict choice, is well-handicapped, and has the significant advantage of Zac Purton in the saddle.
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