The Over/Under is another very popular type of bet. It is normally associated with the total scoring of a given match. In our complete betting guide of the Over Under betting we will get into the skin of this popular market.
How does Over Under betting work?
The Over Under market might look at first sight a bit confusing for the beginner punter. In reality, it is straightforward to understand, so let’s do an example.
Chelsea are playing Manchester City in the Premier League. Bookmakers will offer odds on whether the match will finish with more than 2.50 goals (3 goals or more) or will end with less than 2.50 goals scored (ie. 2 goals or less). So if you back that the match will end with over 2.50 goals and it ends with 3 or more goals, you win. If the match ends with 2 goals or less, you lose your bet. It doesn’t matter which team is scoring the goals, you just need a total of at least 3 goals to win your bet.
On Which Sports Can I Do Over Under Betting?
The Over / Under betting is now applied to most sports. For instance, you can bet on Over Under the number of points in an American football game, Basketball, Rugby, Ice Hockey, and so on. Even on tennis, you can bet on the total number of games played in a match, for instance.
Ove the last few years, we have seen the betting popularity of Over Under market to increase significantly. Now you can not only bet on the number of goals scored in a football match, but you can also use the Over Under market to bet on the number of corner kicks and even on the number of cards handed out by the referee. The application of this market has also increased across other sports. For instance, you can now bet on things like tennis match number of aces served, number of free throws in a basketball match, number of yards gained by a player in an NFL match and so on.
Betting sites have seen that the Over Under betting market is very popular, and as a result, they have increased the betting opportunities to players. Many semi or fully professional sports punters specialise in this market, and here at BettingTips4You.com, we are offering plenty of betting tips and accumulators based on the Under and Over.
How To Win Betting Over Unders?
When punters start out in the world of sports betting, the first thing they look at is the head to head match result betting. This is because they are more familiar with the functionality. Only after a while, punters start to seek out opportunities in other betting markets like the over or under goal or points totals. There are few peculiarities to consider when analysing an Over Under market though. Below we will list some of them.
1. Last Week Doesn’t Count Too Much
Surely recent form has to be taken into consideration also in the Over Unders markets. But it doesn’t actually matter as much as the average punter might think. Yes, you can have a team that tends to score or concede more goals than others but will this give an accurate assessment of a team’s potential to score in the next match? Not much.
To get a more valuable assessment of a team’s potential to score goals (or points), you have to expand the analysis over a longer period of time. So you should look at the scoring form over 20 matches or even more, if possible. How many games to consider will depend on the sport and frequency of games played. Don’t get us wrong, the recent form should also be taken into account but do not get too much influenced by a recent high or low scoring forms. For instance, how many Premier League teams that have just won promotion start the new campaign with some flair but then over time they struggle to score goals?
The majority of the naive betting public is often too seduced by recent form and are missing out great potentials that the Over Under markets can offer with the right assessment. By analysing things in the right way you can find great odds to take advantage of as the majority of punters will push the price up by betting in the opposite direction.
2. Avoid Averages But Track Occurrences
Most people tend to look at scoring average too closely when assessing a particular match. Averages are fine when analysing a significantly large sample size, but even if you have a sample size of let’s say 15 matches, one single irregularity can distort the average.
Let’s look at this example:
- Let’s imagine that Chelsea have played 15 matches and the total goals scored in those matches is 45. This is an average of 3 goals scored for every match. In this case, it looks tempting to consider backing the over. If we look closely though, we can see that two of those 15 matches had a particularly high scoring, like 4-2 and 5-1. These two irregular results will skew the average. If we exclude those two games, we can see that the average is just 2.53, which looks far less appealing.
So averages can be very helpful when we are looking at large sample sizes but it is best to look at occurrences. For instance, you might want to consider how many times a team has gone over or under a particular goal total. For instance, even if Chelsea has scored 3 goals per match, the actual times Chelsea home matches have gone Over 2.50 goals could be less than 50%. So few high scoring matches can actually give you a skewed image of the situation. It could well be that Chelsea home games have only gone over 2.50 goals on seven instances. So, when you look at this data, suddenly backing the Over 2.50 becomes a lot less appealing.
A good way is to count recent games and assign them a greater value compared with games played earlier in the season or even in the previous season. So let’s say you are looking at Chelsea, you will assign twice the significance to the last ten matches as opposed to the previous 10. Weighting games differently depending on when they are played, it is undoubtedly an excellent way to have better insights when betting on the under/over market.
3. Don’t Be Too Exotic
We suggest to always keep your Over Under to the basic 2.50 goals or to where the ‘even money’ line is on that particular match. The reason is this is where normally the value is. Of course, you will find bookmakers that are offering you odds of 5/1 for Over 4.50 goals, but in general, for those prices, bookmakers tend to get a higher margin as the volumes of bets are lower.
This is a general suggestion. Of course, if you have crunched the numbers and found a particularly higher value in a higher or lower than normal goal total line than you should take advantage of it. But in a normal scenario, we suggest you stick to the basics and focus on the ‘even money’ Over Under lines. It will also be a lot easier for you to find historical odds data resources compared with the more exotic variety.
4. Find True Scoring Potential
Surely analysing scorelines is important but if you really want to improve your Over Under betting, you would need some more in-depth stats. You would need to look at a team’s true potential in any given context, and simple goals will not always give you the best insights. It is, therefore, worth doing an analysis that has statistical categories so that you can get a better indication of a team’s form and their effective scoring potential. For instance, you should take a look at shots on goal, shots on target and similar stats.
Analysing the numbers of goals scored it is important but always remember that this data can be a bit inconsistent and also subject to fluctuations. In addition to that, the general public only looks at scorelines and bookmakers are making their odds by looking at the expectation of the average football punter. Having deeper insights on the scoring potentials of a team will give you an edge, and you can, therefore, take advantage of more favourable odds.
5. Consider The Specific Situation
Always analyse the situation when betting on Over and Unders. For instance, look at how those clubs have performed in similar situations. When a team is a heavy underdog away from home, have they been involved in matches with higher or lower goals? When playing teams that are weaker on paper, they tend to score many goals, or they are just happy with a win?
All those things will be valuable and something to keep in your overall analysis. Similarly to the point made above, they can give you an additional edge over the general public who have only carried out a superficial analysis.