This will be remembered without doubts as one of the most unusual US Election for many reasons. Over the last few months, Joe Biden has overcome Donald Trump in the polls, and now he is the strong favourite to be elected the new President of the United States.
US Elections 2020 Betting
US Elections 2020 Betting Tips | Tuesday, 03rd November 2020
Looking at the odds, you might think that there is some value in backing Biden as, if we look at the pools, the Democrats have a significant advantage over the Republicans. The reason why odds are more generous for Biden is that in the last election in 2016, Hillary Clinton was leading significantly in the polls and end up losing. Polls, in that case, were unnaturally towards Democrats.
If we look back at the previous elections though, we can say that this hasn’t always been the case. In fact, Obama managed to outperform the polls but in 2008 and 2012. The reason why Clinton failed was that she couldn’t convince his voters to go out and vote in key districts. In that election, the Left of her coalition was too divided with lots of people staying at home or voting Green to protest of the treatment reserved to Bernie Sanders. Trump had Cambridge Analytica on his side and micro-targeted groups with fake news to suppress their vote. At the moment, we do not see the same happening here, as the anti-Trump coalition is very motivated to send the current President home.
At the moment of writing, Biden odds look very generous as, from our analysis, the Democrats candidate should be well below the current level. Surely Trump managed to shock everyone in 2016, but conditions are very different now. At the time he was seen as the ‘New’ while now he is seen, but most voters, as the President that has messed up with the current crisis and that comes to the election with very little to offer. Biden seems to have been able to unify the front highlighting Trumps’ errors. He didn’t had to do much more to win those elections in the current conditions, so in our opinion, his price represents great value.
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