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Qatar Goodwood Festival Day 3 Tips

After spending the day in the torrential rain at Goodwood yesterday, Steve Ryder previews the races from Thursday 3rd August at the Qatar Goodwood Festival. P&L -1.91pt

1:50 Good Omen 8/1 (1pt ew)

The important factor to remember in the racing today is the ground. After torrential rain yesterday, the ground at Goodwood is going to be very soft. The only horse in this race with winning form on soft ground is Good Omen for David Simcock. Furthermore she is 2/2 over 10f and comes into the race off the back of a win in a handicap at Yarmouth. She is only 3lb higher in this race and she looks sure to go well in a race where Skybet are offering 6 places! There are question marks about the trip and the ground for many of her rivals and I cannot see her out of the frame.

2:25 Endless Time 10/3

1m6f on soft ground will take some getting today, and I feel the most solid option is Endless Time. She ran a superb race finishing second behind Vazirabad earlier in the season in the Group 1 Prix Royal Oak over 1m7f proving that she stays the trip. She won the Lancashire Oaks on soft ground last season proving that she will handle the soft conditions. She also has course form when beating subsequent multiple Group 1 winner Simple Verse in a handicap as a 3 year old. With trip, ground and course in her favour I feel she is the most likely winner and looks sure to go well.

3:00 Nebo 7/2 (2pt)

Nebo won a really strong maiden on soft ground over 6f at Newbury on his debut when sent off 25/1. He then disappointed at Royal Ascot before finishing a superb second in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket over 7f behind Gustav Klimt. Nebo showed lots of pace that day and was the last horse off the bridle so the drop back down to 6f won’t inconvenience him at all. With question marks about his rivals on the soft ground, Nebo rates a confident selection in the Richmond Stakes.

3:35 Winter 6/4

The Nassau Stakes looked like it was going to be the race of the week but the rain has ruined it! 3 horses have already been declared non runners and we have a risk of more in the morning. Winter showed she handles softer going when winning the Irish 1000 Guineas on yielding ground but the question mark with her is the step up in trip to 1m2f. A horse who has fantastic form over 1m2f is Queen’s Trust but all of her best form is on fast ground so that will be a huge negative for her. So Mi Dar returns off a 305 day break and has already missed two intended engagements already this season. John Gosden has been quoted as saying she will need her first run of the season so I am amazed she is currently second favourite for the race. The last filly to discuss is Sobetsu who was impressive on soft ground in a Group 1 in France on her reappearance but her run in the Epsom Oaks (finished 8th beaten 30 lengths) after that run confirms that she should not have the class to win this race. Even with the doubts about Winter over 1m2f I feel that she is most likely winner in the conditions.

4:10 Poetic Steps 6/1 ew

Mark Johnston had a couple of winners at Goodwood yesterday and he looks to have a good chance with the unbeaten Poetic Steps in the Nursery. She won on debut at Hamilton on soft ground at 20/1 under todays jockey PJ McDonald and then followed up under a penalty in a novice race at Carlisle over 7f. She will appreciate the trip and the ground today and looks a solid option in an open looking race.

4:45 Magical 4/7

Magical is a sister to the top class Rhododendron who won this race last season. Magical ran a lovely race on debut finishing second behind an experienced odds on favourite. Aiden O’Brien horses usually show lots of improvement from their first run and even if Magical only runs to the form of her debut she will win this race easily.

5:20 Megan Lily 10/1 ew

Once again ground is the key to the selection in this race with Megan Lily being one of the only horses with form on soft ground. She finished second in a 5f handicap at York on soft ground in May and then followed that up with a victory in a 5f handicap at Chester on soft ground. She won that handicap off a mark of 87 and races in this race off only 2lb higher. Adam McNamara knows the horse well and she is drawn well to attack from a stall 13.

Betting Tips (limited due to ground):

1:50 Good Omen 8/1 (1pt ew) click here for best odds

3:00 Nebo 7/2 (2pt) click here for best odds