Brentford vs Newcastle Predictions

Brentford vs Newcastle predictions ahead of this Premier League meeting. Newcastle United travel to Gtech Community Stadium on Sunday to face Brentford, aiming to secure continental competition next season. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.


Premier League | Gameweek 38 – May 19, 2024 at 4pm UK at Lner Community Stadium

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Brentford vs Newcastle Predictions

Key Stats

– Alexander Isak has scored 20 goals in the Premier League this season, trailing only Erling Haaland and Cole Palmer.

– Newcastle United have won their last four Premier League clashes with Brentford.

– Brentford have managed just five victories from 18 home games this season, highlighting their inconsistent home form.

As the Premier League season approaches its conclusion, Newcastle United travel to the Gtech Community Stadium to face Brentford in a crucial clash. With European qualification still within reach, Newcastle will be eager to secure a victory, while Brentford aim to end their campaign on a positive note. This comprehensive analysis delves into the match’s intricacies, player performances, tactical insights, and predictions based on the latest data.

Match Preview

Brentford have experienced a commendable run of form, suffering defeat in just one of their last eight Premier League outings. Their recent triumph over Bournemouth, secured by late goals from Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa, has solidified their mid-table standing. Although Brentford’s season has been underwhelming compared to their promotion year, they have comfortably avoided relegation, sitting 13 points clear of the drop zone.

Conversely, Newcastle United have faced a tumultuous campaign, highlighted by their struggle for consistency, especially away from St James’ Park. Their recent 3-2 defeat at Old Trafford against Manchester United has put their European aspirations in jeopardy. Currently seventh in the Premier League standings, Eddie Howe’s side must match Manchester United’s result this weekend to secure a spot in the Europa League or Conference League next season.

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Tactical Analysis and Key Player Duels

Brentford’s probable starting lineup includes Flekken; Ajer, Collins, Pinnock, Reguilon; Norgaard, Janelt, Damsgaard; Mbeumo, Wissa, Toney. This formation highlights their balanced approach, combining defensive solidity with attacking flair. Ivan Toney, with four goals in 16 appearances since returning from suspension, will be a key player to watch.

Newcastle’s likely starting XI comprises Pope; Trippier, Schar, Burn, Hall; Longstaff, Guimaraes, Anderson; Murphy, Gordon, Isak. This setup underscores their dynamic midfield and potent forward line. Alexander Isak, trailing only Erling Haaland and Cole Palmer in the Golden Boot race, will be pivotal in breaking down Brentford’s defence.

Areas of the Field and Key Duels

The midfield battle between Brentford’s Norgaard and Newcastle’s Guimaraes will be crucial. Norgaard’s ability to break up play and initiate counter-attacks will be essential for Brentford, while Guimaraes’ creative vision and goal-scoring prowess could tilt the balance in Newcastle’s favour. Another significant duel will be between Newcastle’s Isak and Brentford’s Pinnock. Isak’s sharp finishing and movement will test Pinnock’s defensive capabilities.

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Gameplay Predictions

Newcastle United are expected to dominate possession, leveraging their need for a victory and superior individual quality. Their tactical approach will likely involve high pressing and quick transitions, aiming to exploit Brentford’s defensive vulnerabilities. Brentford, on the other hand, may adopt a more cautious strategy, focusing on solid defence and counter-attacks to capitalize on any lapses from Newcastle.

Strengths and Weaknesses of Both Teams

Newcastle’s strength lies in their dynamic midfield and potent attack, with players like Guimaraes and Isak consistently delivering. However, their defensive frailties, especially away from home, have been a significant weakness. Brentford’s resilience and ability to secure points from tight games are their strengths, but their inconsistent home form and occasional lack of creativity in the final third are areas of concern.

Managers’ Critique

Eddie Howe has shown tactical flexibility and motivational skills, guiding Newcastle through a challenging season. However, his failure to secure more stable away results has been a point of criticism. Thomas Frank, on the other hand, has done a commendable job keeping Brentford clear of relegation, but his team’s inconsistency and struggles against stronger opponents have been glaring issues.

Expected Goals Analysis

Newcastle’s impressive average of 2.2 goals per game and Brentford’s 1.5 goals per game suggest an exciting, high-scoring encounter. Newcastle’s defensive record, conceding 1.6 goals per game, combined with Brentford’s similar defensive stats, highlights the potential for both teams to score. This disparity in performance metrics suggests a competitive match with goals at both ends.

Betting Angles and Trends

Several betting angles emerge from the data. Newcastle’s need for a win and Brentford’s decent home form suggest a tightly contested match. The likelihood of goals from both teams, given their respective scoring rates and defensive records, makes betting on both teams to score attractive. Additionally, Newcastle’s average of 5.2 corners per game and Brentford’s 4.9 indicate potential for a high number of set-pieces.



Best Bet: Newcastle to Win and Both Teams to Score

Considering the stakes involved and the form of both teams, Newcastle United are likely to secure a victory, but Brentford’s ability to score at home cannot be underestimated. Newcastle’s attack, spearheaded by Alexander Isak, has been potent, especially against teams with defensive frailties like Brentford.

Brentford have managed to find the net in most of their home games, indicating that they can breach Newcastle’s defence. However, Newcastle’s overall quality and attacking prowess, driven by their need for a win to secure European football, should see them through. Expect a competitive match with both teams getting on the scoresheet, but Newcastle ultimately taking all three points.

Correct Score Prediction: Brentford 1-3 Newcastle

A 3-1 victory for Newcastle United seems plausible given the dynamics at play. Newcastle’s attack, which averages 2.2 goals per game, is expected to exploit Brentford’s defence, which concedes an average of 1.6 goals per game. Alexander Isak and his teammates are likely to create multiple scoring opportunities.

Brentford, despite their struggles, have shown resilience and are likely to score at least once, leveraging the home advantage. However, the overall superior quality and urgency of Newcastle’s play should see them score three goals, reflecting their dominance and Brentford’s defensive lapses.

Goalscorer Prediction: Alexander Isak

Alexander Isak has been in scintillating form this season, netting 20 goals in the Premier League. His ability to find space and finish clinically makes him a constant threat to any defence.

Given Brentford’s defensive vulnerabilities, Isak is well-positioned to add to his tally. He has shown consistency in scoring, especially in crucial matches, and his role as Newcastle’s main attacking outlet ensures he will get plenty of opportunities. Backing Isak to score at least once in this match is a strong prediction, given his form and the stakes for Newcastle.

Corner Prediction: Total Corners Over 10.5

Both teams have shown a propensity to win corners, with Newcastle averaging 5.2 per game and Brentford 4.9. This suggests a high number of set-piece opportunities in the match. Newcastle’s attacking style and Brentford’s counter-attacking approach often result in numerous corners.

Considering the average combined corner count exceeds 10, betting on over 10.5 total corners is logical. The match’s importance, with Newcastle pushing for a win and Brentford looking to exploit counter-attacks, will likely lead to a high corner count.

Innovative Market: Player Total Shots on Target – Alexander Isak Over 2.5

Given Alexander Isak’s role as the focal point of Newcastle’s attack and his impressive goal-scoring record, he is expected to have several attempts on goal. Betting on Isak to have over 2.5 shots on target is a promising market. His positioning, combined with Newcastle’s attacking strategies, ensures he will be at the heart of goal-scoring opportunities.

Isak’s ability to shoot from various positions and his accuracy make this a viable and innovative market to explore. His importance to Newcastle’s European hopes will likely see him frequently testing Brentford’s goalkeeper.

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Graham Hartshorn
With more than 10 years of business expertise, Graham Hartshorn is a recognized authority on sports betting. He is the betting coordinator for @BTips4You, where he provides content for football fans.  Graham  is a reliable source for sports betting advice and analysis because of his enthusiasm for the business and his successful track record over the years.