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Can Royal Melbourne’s Home Hero Turn Course Knowledge into Crown Australian Open Glory?
The DP World Tour’s early-season swing continues with a fascinating stop in Australia, and golf fans are treated to a packed schedule centred around Royal Melbourne. With the Crown Australian Open sharing the spotlight with the broader Australasian schedule, there is no shortage of storylines for viewers on both sides of the world. Read on for the best bet of the night and the analysis in addition to the best betting offers to take full advantage of.
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Golf betting tips: Australian Open Predictions
- Rory McIlroy has earned 150.16 ranking points since June 1st – more than double any other player in this week’s field.
- Adam Scott ranked 6th for Greens in Regulation in 2024 with a 72.45% success rate, comfortably above the tour average.
- David Puig arrives in Melbourne having already banked 26.62 points since June and a victory at last week’s Australian PGA Championship.
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Adam Scott brings the ideal mix of recent form, long–term tee–to–green quality and proven success around Royal Melbourne’s demanding composite layout. His elite Greens in Regulation numbers and reliable short–game make him perfectly suited to this test, so we are backing the home course specialist to capture the Crown Australian Open title.
Sky Sports Golf carry live coverage for UK fans, with the action starting in the early hours across all four tournament days, while US viewers can follow the play on the Golf Channel and NBC’s digital platforms. Because of the sizeable time difference between Melbourne and the major viewing markets, primetime evening television in North America and late-night or early-morning viewing in the UK will be the norm, which suits those who like to settle in for four days of uninterrupted major-tournament-style golf.
At Royal Melbourne itself, 156 players assemble for a 72–hole stroke play test, with the usual halfway cut trimming the field to the top 65 and ties for the closing rounds. The purse stands at A$2 million, with a significant winner’s share and a healthy allocation of Race to Dubai points on offer, so this is not an early-season warm-up but a fully fledged target for anyone with ambitions of climbing the season-long rankings.
Among those headline names are Rory McIlroy, Ryan Fox, Min Woo Lee, Si Woo Kim, Matt McCarty, Adam Scott and Joaquin Niemann, with David Puig arriving on the back of a breakthrough win at the Australian PGA Championship. The presence of such high–calibre ball–strikers ensures that the standard of golf should be outstanding from Thursday onwards, particularly on a layout that rewards precision and courage in equal measure.
Royal Melbourne itself is a star attraction. The composite layout, formed from the East and West courses, stretches to 7,086 yards and plays to a par of 71, with two par fives, three par threes and a demanding run of par fours. Generous fairway corridors are bordered by sandy waste areas and heather, making positional play off the tee far more important than sheer width might suggest. Approaches are struck into large, fast, well–protected greens where finding the correct angle and tier is absolutely critical. In short, iron play and short–game excellence, rather than brute force, tend to decide the week.
Weather forecasts point to warm conditions, with temperatures climbing towards 30 degrees early in the tournament. A moderate breeze is expected for the opening round but calmer air thereafter. That combination of firm turf, sunshine and manageable wind should allow the very best strategists and shot–makers to separate themselves across four days of competition.
Australian Open 2025: The Punter’s Preview
As the new DP World Tour season beds in, Royal Melbourne hosts a field rich in form players and intriguing profiles. Recent performance data gives us a valuable window into who is trending in the right direction.
Rory McIlroy arrives as the world number two and the clear points leader in this field over the past six months, with an impressive 150.16 points accumulated since the start of June. That total is more than double that of Ryan Fox, who sits second on 68.25. McIlroy’s recent run includes back–to–back podium finishes, with a runner–up effort in his most recent appearance and a third place immediately prior, underlining his position as the man everyone else are chasing.
Ryan Fox has not been at his sharpest in the very latest start – a 39th–place finish in Brisbane – but his underlying points profile indicates sustained quality over time and suggests he can bounce back strongly. David Puig is one of the most eye–catching improvers: 26.62 points since June combined with last week’s victory at the Australian PGA Championship and a series of solid finishes (including top–15s and a top–10 at the Open de España) show that his win was no fluke.
Further down the points list, Matt McCarty, Si Woo Kim, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, Kazuma Kobori, David Law, Elvis Smylie, Adam Scott, Carlos Ortiz and Maximilian Steinlechner all feature inside the top twelve by recent points among this week’s entrants. That tells us that depth in the field is respectable, with several players carrying enough form to make life uncomfortable for the headline names.
Looking at the last ten weeks’ finishing positions, we see recurring flashes of high performance. Min Woo Lee has delivered results inside the top ten on multiple occasions. Marc Leishman’s card includes finishes of 3rd, 11th, 6th and 3rd, pointing to a very stable platform. Ding Wen Yi has produced an eye–catching sequence of 3rd, 6th and 2nd, and was also prominent midway through the Dunhill Links. David Puig’s row includes a win, as well as solid finishes in the teens and top–20s. Adam Scott’s recent line shows a 7th–place finish in the most recent week 48, backed up by other top–30 results, suggesting a game that is very close to peaking without yet having fully spiked.
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Best Bet
Here at bettingtips4you we only provide a single prediction rather than flooding readers with a dozen options. We believe that focusing on one clear selection per event offers quality over quantity, removes confusion for punters, and makes it far easier to track how our advice performs over time. For the 2025 Crown Australian Open at Royal Melbourne, our Best Bet is:
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Adam Scott to win
There are several reasons why Adam Scott stands out in this particular set–up. First, he has already proved he can conquer Royal Melbourne in competitive conditions, having previously lifted a title on this very composite layout. That past success on the course is not an abstract historical footnote; it tells us he understands the nuances of the East–West routing, the preferred angles into the greens and how to manage his ball in the firm, fast conditions that typically define this venue.
Second, his underlying statistical profile is extremely well matched to what Royal Melbourne demands. In recent seasons on tour, Scott has repeatedly ranked among the better players for Greens in Regulation. In 2024 his GIR percentage of 72.45% sat well above the tour average of 66.70%, earning him a top–10 ranking in that category. That is precisely the kind of iron–play efficiency that tends to pay off on a course where missing on the wrong side of the hole can quickly lead to bogeys.
His driving numbers further strengthen the case. While his 2025 driving accuracy percentage of 39.92% compares poorly to the tour mean, that figure is accompanied by a driving distance of 307.86 yards, which is well above average and inside the top twenty on tour. Historically he has combined above–average length with seasons of very solid accuracy, and the long–term body of work shows that he is more than capable of hitting enough fairways when his swing is in rhythm. On a course where fairways are generous but angles matter, that blend of length and a proven ability to tighten the dispersion when required is particularly valuable.
Short–game and putting data also support the selection. Scott’s sand save percentage has consistently hovered around or above tour norms in several seasons, including a standout 100% success rate in a shorter 2020 sample and a strong bunker performance in his early career. His putts per GIR have often been at, or slightly better than, the field benchmarks, with rankings comfortably inside the top third of the tour in multiple seasons. That combination of reliable bunker play and efficient conversion when he does find greens supports the idea that he can protect pars and take advantage of his birdie chances on Royal Melbourne’s expansive but treacherous putting surfaces.
Recent form is another tick in his column. A 7th–place finish in week 48, along with other respectable finishes such as 11th, 27th and 30th, points to a player who is repeatedly putting himself into the right part of the leaderboard without yet getting everything to click at once. His 2026 stroke average of 67.75 compared to a tour average of 69.35, with a ranking of 5th, underlines the quality of golf he has produced at the very start of the new season. When you marry that level of current performance to a course he knows intimately and a skill–set tailored to iron play and short–game precision, Adam Scott emerges as a compelling choice to lift the trophy again.
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