Our BT4Y’s outright predictions season continues and today we are focusing on the Premier League that will start later on this week.
Although Arsenal posed a threat initially, Manchester City clinched the Premier League title, marking their journey towards an outstanding treble. Is a fourth consecutive title in their sights, or will another heavy hitter emerge as the champions?
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Season Starts Friday, 11th August at 8:00 pm In:
Premier League 2023/24 Outright Predictions
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Chasing Shadows: Will Manchester City’s Reign be Challenged?
Key Stats
– Arsenal’s xGD of +0.82 for most of last season signifies their potential to challenge City’s dominance.
– Liverpool’s attacking prowess is evident with an average of 2.12 xGF per game last term, only second to Manchester City.
Manchester City, undoubtedly the heavyweight in the recent past of Premier League football, displayed unparalleled strategy and precision last season. Initially trailing by a shocking seven points from the top spot held by Arsenal at mid-season, many wrote off City’s chances. However, under Pep Guardiola’s genius, they strategically evolved, introducing a game-changing system that accelerated their resurgence. This prowess is evident as they overcame an eight-point difference with only 10 games left, proving their title-winning mettle by grabbing their third consecutive Premier League title and fifth in the last six seasons.
However, City’s model of granting competitors a head start before racing to the finish is becoming conspicuous. In the past five seasons, two of their championship wins were recovery acts from significant point deficits. The notable exception being their inability to chase down Liverpool a season they didn’t take home the title. Given this, one wonders if Guardiola’s side would continue to tread this risky path, especially in the upcoming 23/24 season.
Manchester City’s Challenges Ahead
Despite being the bookmakers’ favourite at 4/6, several developments hint at potential hurdles for Manchester City. Key players like Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez have departed for Barcelona and Saudi Arabia respectively. Add to that a potential move for Kyle Walker to Bayern Munich and City’s previously deep squad seems thinner.
Additionally, a packed fixture list awaits the side, with them participating in six major tournaments, increasing the chances of player burnout and injuries. Statistically speaking, their previous season’s xGD (Expected Goal Difference) of +1.32 per game, while impressive, lagged their seven-season average of +1.56.
Arsenal’s Resurgence: Ready to Fire
Under Mikel Arteta’s leadership, Arsenal’s trajectory has been steadily upward. Their commitment is emphasised by their marquee signing, Declan Rice. Arsenal’s xGD of +0.82 per game last season indicated their growth, especially since they matched City’s underlying numbers until the 29th gameweek.
But, sustaining this elite level consistently across the season remains Arteta’s next challenge. The team’s ability to hang with the champions for a significant part of the previous season bodes well. With Arteta’s strategic improvements, it’s not far-fetched to see Arsenal crowned champions, especially with odds of 5/1.
Liverpool: The Dark Horse?
Liverpool’s roller-coaster performances in recent years make them a side to watch. Their strong attacking metrics, an average of 2.12 xGF (Expected Goals For) per game last term, indicate the potential for resurgence. If their defensive and midfield woes are addressed, the title race could have a surprise entrant. Remember, this is the team that, after securing the title in 19/20 with an impressive xGD of +0.94 per game, faltered the next season but roared back with 92 points in 21/22.
Premier League Winner Prediction
Arsenal: The Rising Phoenix
A rejuvenated Arsenal, under the tactically astute Mikel Arteta, are showing signs of recapturing their glory days. They’ve made impressive strides in both defensive organisation and attacking flair. The recent acquisitions, such as top-class midfielders and forwards, provide not just quality but depth, allowing for flexible tactics and fresher legs through the gruelling season. Their hunger and momentum may see them clinch a dramatic title victory, especially if they can maintain consistency.
Manchester City: The Wounded Lion
Manchester City, while still a powerhouse, are showing vulnerabilities in their game. This could be due to various factors, including injuries to key players, tactical predictability, or even internal management issues. However, the depth and experience in their squad, plus the mastermind that is Pep Guardiola, mean they are still serious contenders. A second-place finish might signal a temporary dip rather than a significant decline.
Top 3 Finish
Liverpool: The Delicate Balancing Act
Liverpool’s attacking prowess is not in question, but their defence has been shaky. If Klopp can fix the leaks at the back, Liverpool are a team that can challenge anyone. The return of injured players, tactical tweaks, and perhaps a key defensive signing in the winter transfer window could see them solidify their backline. The combination of Salah, Mane, and Jota up front, with the midfield creativity, can drive them to a top-three finish.
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The Premier League Relegation Ballet: Dance of Hope and Despair
Every year, as summer turns to fall and the Premier League kicks into full gear, fans and pundits alike eagerly turn their gaze not just to the top of the table, but also to the tumultuous fight at the bottom. Relegation battles are intriguing, heart-wrenching, and dramatic. This season is no different. Utilising a mix of recent performances, historical data, and odds from bookmakers, let’s dissect which teams might find themselves embroiled in this year’s fight to avoid the drop.
Last Season’s Survivors: A Tale of Two Teams
Bournemouth’s previous campaign serves as a beacon of hope for all lower-tier teams. With pundits predicting their downfall, they not only defied these grim prophecies but did so with a comfortable margin, finishing five points away from the danger zone. Their resilience shone even after suffering losses in their final quartet of matches. Luton Town, this season’s underdogs, will surely be looking at Bournemouth’s campaign for inspiration.
However, Luton’s situation seems more precarious. Last season, they secured just 21 victories out of a possible 46 in the Championship. Their recruitment during the summer transfer window failed to raise eyebrows or expectations. With teams like Fulham, Brentford, and Aston Villa enhancing the quality of the lower echelons of the Premier League, Luton, under Dave Edwards, find themselves staring at a formidable challenge.
Sheffield’s Precarious Position
The 2019-20 season saw Sheffield United confound critics, finishing a respectable ninth. This impressive feat will undoubtedly serve as a rallying point for both Sheffield and Luton. However, a closer look reveals concerning signs for Sheffield. The recent departure of Iliman Ndiaye is a blow, but more crucially, they lack the tactical genius of Chris Wilder, who had a knack for outwitting the best in the business. With these factors in play, the Blades might find it hard to replicate their previous successes.
Crystal Palace: A Kingdom in Jeopardy
Meanwhile, Crystal Palace’s situation is becoming increasingly tense. Roy Hodgson’s entry last season brought a breath of fresh air, saving the Eagles from plummeting. But as Hodgson nears his 76th birthday, questions arise regarding his drive for a full season ahead. The departure of talisman Wilf Zaha to Galatasaray is a setback, and the potential exit of Michael Olise could further darken the clouds over Selhurst Park. With their attacking capabilities already under scrutiny last season, Palace’s challenges are mounting.
Relegation Odds & Predictions
The volatile nature of the relegation battle is evident from last season, where Everton and Wolves seemed destined for the drop, only for managerial changes to alter their fortunes drastically. Teams at the bottom often resort to drastic measures, such as managerial swaps or sudden transfer splurges, to salvage their Premier League status.
Looking at the current odds provided by BetVictor:
- Luton: 4/11
- Sheffield United: 4/6
- Nottingham Forest: 9/4
- Bournemouth: 5/2
- Everton, Wolves: 11/4
- Burnley, Fulham: 10/3
To Finish Bottom: Considering the given data, Luton Town, with their less-than-impressive Championship performance and subpar summer recruitment, appears most likely to finish at the bottom.
To Be Relegated: Sheffield United, despite their heroics a few seasons ago, seem vulnerable. Their diminished tactical prowess post-Wilder and recent departures make them strong contenders for relegation.
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