The PGA Tour is back in Texas this week, and our golf betting expert Herrin Kendrick has previewed the Charles Schwab Challenge for you and also provided his best bet. Read on for all the tips and also take advantage of the selected bookies offers listed to maximise the betting value for this tournament.
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Charles Schwab Challenge Betting
Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Tips | Thursday 25th May to Sunday 28th May 2023
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£20 returns £680
Odds corrects at time of posting and subject to change
Main Bet: Tommy Fleetwood To Win
When evaluating the historical evolution of the Charles Schwab Challenge, a curious disparity in winning scores immediately catches the eye.
Not too far in the past, the course saw Zach Johnson clinch victory with a whopping 21-under in 2010, closely followed by Justin Rose’s 20-under in 2018 and Jordan Spieth’s impressive 17-under in 2016. However, the winning figures have witnessed a considerable drop since then. Last year’s contest concluded with Sam Burns and Scottie Scheffler entering the extra rounds after both tallied a 9-under score, mimicking Adam Scott’s performance in 2014. Kevin Na’s 2019 achievement was unique as he was the lone player to hit double digits under par.
Understanding The Score Disparity: Weather Influence
An insightful glimpse into these varying figures points to the effect of weather conditions, particularly the wind speed. Hence, keeping an eye on the weather forecast seems like a prudent starting point. As of now, the maximum winds are projected to be around 15mph – a normal occurrence in Texas. While the wind will certainly impact the game, it does not necessitate a shift in betting strategy.
Recent Success and the Winning Formula
Possibly, the recent renditions of 2020 and 2021 could serve as more reliable guides. They were respectively won by Daniel Berger and Jason Kokrak with scores of 15-under and 14-under in fairly scorable conditions. Both victories highlighted the significant role of approach play and putting.
In 2020, Berger ranked fifth in SG: Approach and seventh in SG: Putting, with five of the top eight entrants featuring in the top 10 for SGP. Two years ago, Kokrak was ranked seventh in putting and eighth for approach, with the top six including the top-ranked Sebastian Munoz exhibiting commendable putting prowess.
However, last year’s windier edition saw SG: Off The Tee playing a more prominent role, with Burns ranking sixth in SGP and 12th for Approach.
Tommy Fleetwood’s Potential
Leading the betting pick is Tommy Fleetwood, boasting a robust profile that seems to tick all the boxes. He secures a rank of 26th in SG: Approach, 40th in Putting and overall ninth in Strokes Gained.
Last week, Fleetwood was among the top 10 at Oak Hill before an unfortunate start to his final round, nevertheless managing a respectable 18th position. This achievement adds to his recent impressive performances at Quail Hollow and Hilton Head, demonstrating his potential for a promising run in the upcoming Challenge.
Fleetwood debuted in this event last year and secured a tied 35th spot. His impressive run in the WGC-Match Play at Austin CC also bodes well, given the strong correlation between that course and this Texas layout.
In a tournament where some leading contenders like Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland may be reeling from their stint at Oak Hill, Fleetwood, with his current form and confidence, seems well-positioned to break through the ranks and secure his first PGA Tour victory. Hence, a bet on Fleetwood at 33/1 seems like a promising choice for this week.