Football Stats Hub

Palmeiras crestPalmeiras
v
Cruzeiro crestCruzeiro

Serie A | Sun 17 May, 01:00

Palmeiras v Cruzeiro Stats

Data last updated: Sat 16 May 2026, 03:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Palmeiras face Cruzeiro in Serie A on Sun 17 May, 01:00. Palmeiras come in with 9 recent points and 0.8 goals per match, while Cruzeiro have 12 points and 1.6 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Cruzeiro to Win

  • At 4.33, Cruzeiro Win implies roughly 23%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 57%.
  • Cruzeiro have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 9 for Palmeiras.
  • Palmeiras have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per match, which helps the Cruzeiro Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Palmeiras sit 1 in the table, while Cruzeiro sit 11, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 57% for Cruzeiro Win sits against roughly 23% implied by the current price. Cruzeiro have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 9 for Palmeiras.

Model chance vs price57% model chance against roughly 23% implied
Strong positive
Cruzeiro have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points.Visible data support
Positive
Palmeiras have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Cruzeiro Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Cruzeiro have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 9 for Palmeiras. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Cruzeiro Win evidence

Cruzeiro have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 9 for Palmeiras.

Palmeiras have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.4 conceded per match, which helps the Cruzeiro Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Palmeiras sit 1 in the table, while Cruzeiro sit 11, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Cruzeiro Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Palmeiras0.8
    Avg goals scored
    Cruzeiro1.6
    Palmeiras0.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Cruzeiro1
    Palmeiras40%
    BTTS rate
    Cruzeiro60%
    Palmeiras0%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Cruzeiro60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 25% · edge +38.3 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 41%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 23%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickCruzeiro to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 23% · edge +33.5 pts
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Cruzeiro Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
    2.85
    Check odds @ 2.85
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 41%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Cruzeiro to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Palmeiras9.2
    Avg corners for
    Cruzeiro4
    Palmeiras13.8
    Avg total corners
    Cruzeiro7.8
    Palmeiras1.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Cruzeiro3
    Palmeiras14.4
    Avg shots
    Cruzeiro14.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 5.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Palmeiras

    DDWWD
    Last 52W 3D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 107W 3D 0L
    10 May 2026A Remo1-1
    02 May 2026H Santos1-1
    26 Apr 2026A RB Bragantino1-0
    19 Apr 2026H Atletico Paranaense1-0
    12 Apr 2026A Corinthians0-0

    Cruzeiro

    WLWWW
    Last 54W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 2D 3L
    10 May 2026A Bahia2-1
    03 May 2026H Atletico-MG1-3
    25 Apr 2026A Remo1-0
    19 Apr 2026H Gremio2-0
    12 Apr 2026H RB Bragantino2-1
    Market aligned with main pickCruzeiro to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 23% · edge +33.5 pts
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Load more odds for this section
    Cruzeiro Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
    2.85
    Check odds @ 2.85
    Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 82%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    6Palmeiras wins
    3Draws
    1Cruzeiro wins
    26 Oct 2025Palmeiras v Cruzeiro0-0
    01 Jun 2025Cruzeiro v Palmeiras2-1
    05 Dec 2024Cruzeiro v Palmeiras1-2
    21 Jul 2024Palmeiras v Cruzeiro2-0
    07 Dec 2023Cruzeiro v Palmeiras1-1
    14 Aug 2023Palmeiras v Cruzeiro1-0
    Market aligned with main pickCruzeiro to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 23% · edge +33.5 pts
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 41%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Cruzeiro to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Palmeiras18
    Played
    Cruzeiro18
    Palmeiras1.7
    Avg goals for
    Cruzeiro1.3
    Palmeiras0.7
    Avg goals against
    Cruzeiro1.6
    Palmeiras7
    Clean sheets
    Cruzeiro4
    Market aligned with main pickCruzeiro to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 23% · edge +33.5 pts
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Load more odds for this section
    Cruzeiro Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
    2.85
    Check odds @ 2.85
    Season data supports Cruzeiro to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Palmeiras4118125117
    11Cruzeiro2418666-4
    Palmeiras sit in position 1, while Cruzeiro sit in position 11, so table pressure belongs in the Cruzeiro Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    0%Palmeiras Over 2.5
    60%Cruzeiro Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Palmeiras sit at 0% and Cruzeiro sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Football predictions hub

    Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

    More stats pages

    Browse football stats pages

    Open the main stats hub for the latest fixture dashboards.

    Competition and hubs

    Serie A hubSerie A fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hub

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    View match centre