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Guimaraes crestGuimaraes
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Casa Pia crestCasa Pia

Primeira Liga | Mon 11 May, 20:15

Guimaraes v Casa Pia Stats

Data last updated: Sun 10 May 2026, 03:07 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Guimaraes face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga on Mon 11 May, 20:15. With the last six league clashes between these two sides all ending under 2.5 goals, the market strongly expects another low-scoring affair.

BT4Y best bet

Kicks meets a specific weakness for Casa Pia, who are noted for fouling in dangerous areas and struggling to defend dead-ball situations

  • At 4.5, Casa Pia Win implies roughly 22%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 23%.
  • Historical trends point toward an extremely tight contest, with the 0–1 away win and 1–1 draw statistically the most frequent outcomes.
  • Guimaraes have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 1 for Casa Pia.
  • Guimaraes have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Casa Pia Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Guimaraes sit 9 in the table, while Casa Pia sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 23% for Casa Pia Win sits against roughly 22% implied by the current price. Guimaraes have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 1 for Casa Pia. Historical trends point toward an extremely tight contest, with the 0–1 away win and 1–1 draw statistically the most frequent outcomes.

Model chance vs price23% model chance against roughly 22% implied
Neutral
Guimaraes have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
Guimaraes have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Historical trends point toward an extremely tight contest.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Casa Pia Win is the preferred angle because historical trends point toward an extremely tight contest, with the 0–1 away win and 1–1 draw statistically the most frequent outcomes. Guimaraes have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 1 for Casa Pia. At the back, clean sheets suggest both sides have some capacity to shut the door, but with different baselines.

Main risk

At the back, clean sheets suggest both sides have some capacity to shut the door, but with different baselines.

Key Data Signals

Casa Pia Win evidence

Historical trends point toward an extremely tight contest, with the 0–1 away win and 1–1 draw statistically the.

Guimaraes have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 1 for Casa Pia.

Guimaraes have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Casa Pia Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Guimaraes sit 9 in the table, while Casa Pia sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Casa Pia Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Guimaraes4
    Avg corners for
    Casa Pia5.8
    Guimaraes8.4
    Avg total corners
    Casa Pia11
    Guimaraes2
    Avg yellow cards
    Casa Pia3.2
    Guimaraes12.2
    Avg shots
    Casa Pia8.6
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 56% · edge +2.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Primeira Liga hubGuimaraes v Casa Pia predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Guimaraes2
    Avg goals scored
    Casa Pia0.4
    Guimaraes1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Casa Pia1.4
    Guimaraes40%
    BTTS rate
    Casa Pia40%
    Guimaraes40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Casa Pia40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 29% · edge +28.1 pts
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 47%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickCasa Pia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 23% vs implied 22% · edge +0.8 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Casa Pia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Casa Pia to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Guimaraes

    LWWDW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    04 May 2026A Sporting CP1-5
    25 Apr 2026H Rio Ave2-0
    18 Apr 2026A GIL Vicente1-0
    11 Apr 2026A AVS1-1
    03 Apr 2026H Tondela5-0

    Casa Pia

    LLLDL
    Last 50W 1D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 4D 6L
    03 May 2026H Tondela0-1
    27 Apr 2026A GIL Vicente1-2
    23 Apr 2026H SC Braga0-1
    18 Apr 2026H Santa Clara0-0
    12 Apr 2026A Alverca1-3
    Market aligned with main pickCasa Pia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 23% vs implied 22% · edge +0.8 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Casa Pia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
    2.06
    Check odds @ 2.06
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Guimaraes wins
    4Draws
    2Casa Pia wins
    28 Dec 2025Casa Pia v Guimaraes0-0
    01 Mar 2025Guimaraes v Casa Pia1-0
    28 Sep 2024Casa Pia v Guimaraes1-1
    24 Feb 2024Guimaraes v Casa Pia0-2
    23 Sep 2023Casa Pia v Guimaraes0-0
    19 Feb 2023Casa Pia v Guimaraes0-0
    Market aligned with main pickCasa Pia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 23% vs implied 22% · edge +0.8 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Casa Pia to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Primeira Liga

    Guimaraes34
    Played
    Casa Pia36
    Guimaraes1.1
    Avg goals for
    Casa Pia0.9
    Guimaraes1.5
    Avg goals against
    Casa Pia1.6
    Guimaraes10
    Clean sheets
    Casa Pia9
    Market aligned with main pickCasa Pia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 23% vs implied 22% · edge +0.8 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Casa Pia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Season data supports Casa Pia to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    9Guimaraes423412616-12
    16Casa Pia303461216-26
    Guimaraes sit in position 9, while Casa Pia sit in position 16, so table pressure belongs in the Casa Pia Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Guimaraes Over 2.5
    40%Casa Pia Over 2.5
    0.88H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Guimaraes sit at 40% and Casa Pia sit at 40% with the H2H average at 0.88 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Guimaraes v Casa Pia prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Betting context

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