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Fluminense crestFluminense
v
Sao Paulo crestSao Paulo

Serie A | Sat 16 May, 23:00

Fluminense v Sao Paulo Stats

Data last updated: Fri 15 May 2026, 03:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fluminense face Sao Paulo in Serie A on Sat 16 May, 23:00. Fluminense come in with 7 recent points and 1.6 goals per match, while Sao Paulo have 4 points and 1.2 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • At 1.91, Both Teams To Score implies roughly 52%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 76%.
  • Fluminense show a 80% BTTS rate and Sao Paulo show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Fluminense average 1.6 goals scored and Sao Paulo average 1.2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 76% for Both Teams To Score sits against roughly 52% implied by the current price. Fluminense show a 80% BTTS rate and Sao Paulo show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Model chance vs price76% model chance against roughly 52% implied
Strong positive
Fluminense show a 80% BTTS rate and Sao Paulo show.Visible data support
Positive
Fluminense average 1.6 goals scored and Sao Paulo average 1.2.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Fluminense show a 80% BTTS rate and Sao Paulo show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score evidence

Fluminense show a 80% BTTS rate and Sao Paulo show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Fluminense average 1.6 goals scored and Sao Paulo average 1.2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score notes

  • Compare both teams on scoring rate and clean-sheet record before trusting Both Teams To Score.
  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Fluminense5.6
Avg corners for
Sao Paulo8.6
Fluminense8.6
Avg total corners
Sao Paulo14.2
Fluminense2.6
Avg yellow cards
Sao Paulo2.8
Fluminense16.4
Avg shots
Sao Paulo13.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 55% · edge +14.3 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 5.5 CardsBetUK guide price
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fluminense1.6
Avg goals scored
Sao Paulo1.2
Fluminense1.8
Avg goals conceded
Sao Paulo1.8
Fluminense80%
BTTS rate
Sao Paulo60%
Fluminense80%
Over 2.5 goals
Sao Paulo60%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 52% · edge +23.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 82%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 52% · edge +23.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Fluminense to WinBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Fluminense Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Sao Paulo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Sao Paulo to WinBet365 guide price · model 25%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fluminense

DLWWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
09 May 2026H Vitoria2-2
03 May 2026A Internacional0-2
27 Apr 2026H Chapecoense-sc2-1
19 Apr 2026A Santos3-2
12 Apr 2026H Flamengo1-2

Sao Paulo

LDWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
10 May 2026A Corinthians2-3
03 May 2026H Bahia2-2
26 Apr 2026H Mirassol1-0
18 Apr 2026A Vasco DA Gama1-2
11 Apr 2026A Vitoria0-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 84% vs implied 86% · edge -1.7 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
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Fluminense to WinBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Fluminense Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Sao Paulo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Sao Paulo to WinBet365 guide price · model 25%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Fluminense wins
2Draws
3Sao Paulo wins
27 Nov 2025Fluminense v Sao Paulo6-0
27 Jul 2025Sao Paulo v Fluminense3-1
01 Sep 2024Fluminense v Sao Paulo2-0
14 May 2024Sao Paulo v Fluminense2-1
23 Nov 2023Fluminense v Sao Paulo1-0
01 Jul 2023Sao Paulo v Fluminense1-0
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 52% · edge +23.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Fluminense to WinBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Sao Paulo to WinBet365 guide price · model 25%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Serie A

Fluminense18
Played
Sao Paulo18
Fluminense1.6
Avg goals for
Sao Paulo1.3
Fluminense1.3
Avg goals against
Sao Paulo1.1
Fluminense3
Clean sheets
Sao Paulo4
Best odds for this sectionFluminense to WinBetUK guide price · Model 59% vs implied 53% · edge +6 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Fluminense Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Sao Paulo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Sao Paulo to WinBet365 guide price · model 25%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Season data supports Fluminense to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Fluminense31189455
8Sao Paulo25187473
Fluminense sit in position 3, while Sao Paulo sit in position 8, so table pressure belongs in the Both Teams To Score assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Fluminense Over 2.5
60%Sao Paulo Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Fluminense sit at 80% and Sao Paulo sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.