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Atletico-MG crestAtletico-MG
v
Mirassol crestMirassol

Serie A | Sat 16 May, 22:30

Atletico-MG v Mirassol Stats

Data last updated: Tue 09 Jun 2026, 06:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atletico-MG face Mirassol in Serie A on Sat 16 May, 22:30. Atletico-MG come in with 4 recent points and 0.8 goals per match, while Mirassol have 7 points and 1.2 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Mirassol to Win

  • At 3.6, Mirassol Win implies roughly 28%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 60%.
  • Mirassol have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Atletico-MG.
  • Mirassol have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Mirassol Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Atletico-MG sit 9 in the table, while Mirassol sit 19, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 60% for Mirassol Win sits against roughly 28% implied by the current price. Mirassol have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Atletico-MG.

Model chance vs price60% model chance against roughly 28% implied
Strong positive
Mirassol have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support
Positive
Mirassol have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Mirassol Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Mirassol have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Atletico-MG. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Mirassol Win evidence

Mirassol have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 4 for Atletico-MG.

Mirassol have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Mirassol Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Atletico-MG sit 9 in the table, while Mirassol sit 19, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Mirassol Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Atletico-MG6
    Avg corners for
    Mirassol4.6
    Atletico-MG9.4
    Avg total corners
    Mirassol11.2
    Atletico-MG2
    Avg yellow cards
    Mirassol3.4
    Atletico-MG15
    Avg shots
    Mirassol13
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 60% · edge +6.2 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    Serie A hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Atletico-MG0.8
    Avg goals scored
    Mirassol1.2
    Atletico-MG1.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Mirassol1.2
    Atletico-MG40%
    BTTS rate
    Mirassol80%
    Atletico-MG40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Mirassol60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 51% · edge +22 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 66%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 31%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickMirassol to WinBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 28% · edge +31.8 pts
    3.6
    Check odds @ 3.6
    Load more odds for this section
    Mirassol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Mirassol to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Atletico-MG

    DWLLL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 1D 5L
    10 May 2026H Botafogo1-1
    03 May 2026A Cruzeiro3-1
    27 Apr 2026H Flamengo0-4
    19 Apr 2026A Coritiba0-2
    12 Apr 2026A Santos0-1

    Mirassol

    DWLWL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 1D 7L
    10 May 2026H Chapecoense-sc1-1
    04 May 2026H Corinthians2-1
    26 Apr 2026A Sao Paulo0-1
    19 Apr 2026A Internacional2-1
    11 Apr 2026H Bahia1-2
    Market aligned with main pickMirassol to WinBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 28% · edge +31.8 pts
    3.6
    Check odds @ 3.6
    Load more odds for this section
    Mirassol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Atletico-MG wins
    1Draws
    0Mirassol wins
    28 Sep 2025Atletico-MG v Mirassol1-0
    26 Apr 2025Mirassol v Atletico-MG2-2
    Market aligned with main pickMirassol to WinBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 28% · edge +31.8 pts
    3.6
    Check odds @ 3.6
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Mirassol to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Atletico-MG18
    Played
    Mirassol17
    Atletico-MG1.2
    Avg goals for
    Mirassol1.1
    Atletico-MG1.3
    Avg goals against
    Mirassol1.4
    Atletico-MG4
    Clean sheets
    Mirassol1
    Market aligned with main pickMirassol to WinBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 28% · edge +31.8 pts
    3.6
    Check odds @ 3.6
    Load more odds for this section
    Mirassol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Season data supports Mirassol to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    9Atletico-MG2418738-1
    19Mirassol1617449-6
    Atletico-MG sit in position 9, while Mirassol sit in position 19, so table pressure belongs in the Mirassol Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Atletico-MG Over 2.5
    60%Mirassol Over 2.5
    2.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Atletico-MG sit at 40% and Mirassol sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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    Betting context

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