The Constant Kelly is similar to the Full Kelly method that we have looked in details in the previous article but rather than suggesting a percentage of a varying amount, it recommends a percentage of a constant. Instead of suggesting 15% of a smaller or larger account it suggests 15% of a constant amount.
Many bets at the same time
One of the major problem of using the Kelly method is that it doesn’t help when we want to bet on multiple events at one time.
For example if there are 4 games you are keen to bet on and all those starts at the same time. What will happen if the recommended percentage of bankroll for Bet A (25%), Bet B (35%), Bet C (35%) and Bet D (40%)? In this case the amount suggested would be 135% which is impossible.
One of the solutions to this issue is to reduce the % proportionally so that the total will be 100% of the bankroll: for example A will become 19%, etc. The only problem with this is that you are effectively betting the 100% of your bankroll on 4 events that could easily lose and also you are not giving the same value to an event (19% instead to 25%) just because it is a busy day. One way to address this problem is to use a fractional method regardless of how many events you want to bet on in a specific day. This will help to make sure that the total will not eclipse 100% of your bankroll.
This is surely a good solution in most cases however if you are betting op up to and over 20 events in a single day your 100% could still be eclipsed.
What is our suggestion:
Our suggestion is to use a 10% fractional Kelly method. This will preserve your overall bankroll and still allow you do place many bets on the sporting events that will be played daily.
For example if your bankroll is £5000 and you are betting on a team with odds of 2.60 to win and you have determined that the winning probability are 50%, than the overlay will be 30%. The bet recommended in this case will be:
(bankroll * chosen fraction) * (overlay/(odds – 1))
i.e (£5000 * 10%) * (30% / 1.60)
(£500) * (18.75%)= £93.75
Find the best bankroll management yourself
There are many different bankroll management strategy and we think that the Fractional Kelly is the best one as it takes into consideration the odds offered, the probability assessed and the value identified to get to a betting amount that will optimise the value but securing that your career as a sports bettor will not end prematurely.
The best way is to make practice so we suggest you to take advantage of the free bets offered by Sky bet -> If you open a new account clicking on the button below you will get £30 in free bet that you can put against your bankroll to test the method and feel comfortable without risking your own money. [maxbutton id=”31″]