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Australian Open Betting: Very Little Chance For Thiem To Cause An Upset In The Australian Open Men’s Final

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The first tournament of the 2020 tennis season will be the first Grand Slam: the Australian Open. Not only we will preview both the women and man tournament, but you will also be able to access the best odds and the analysis of the most important games made by our top tennis betting tips experts.

There are many reasons why you should follow the Australian Open and, from a betting perspective, bookmakers always go the extra mile in offering great odds and offers for what is the first major tennis tournament of the year. We will bring those for you so bookmark this page and come back regularly to find the latest updates.

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Australian Open 2020 Betting

2020 Australian Open Men’s Final Betting | Sunday 02nd, February 2020

08:30 – Dominic Thiem vs Novak Djokovic Betting Tips: Very Little Chance For Thiem To Cause An Upset

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Dominic Thiem will have the difficult task to cause an upset or at least make this Australian Open interesting when he faces Novak Djokovic on Sunday. 

Thiem has performed over his abilities

Novak Djokovic was expected to cruise through the bottom half of the draw. He was the strong outright favourite and the way he played clearly delivered on expectations. Austrian Dominic Thiem, on the other way, was a lot less predictable to make it to the final as he was sitting in the top half and had to defeat three top ten players to make it to Sunday’s final. If he wants to lift his maiden Grand Slam title he would have to defeat the most-inform and better player of the moment Novak Djokovic. Possible? Very unlikely. 

Thiem has been able to reach two Grand Slam finals previously but both on his favourite clay conditions at the French Open, where he stumbled upon the King of Clay, Rafael Nadal. He cannot be accused of having had an easy route to this final, even if his win over Alexander Zverev in the semi-final was a close one, with the last two sets that were won via tiebreaks. The Austrian also had five fewer breakpoints chances and has won only three more points in the match compared with the German, even if he won the encounter for 3-1. Zverev also had better winners/unforced errors count. So it was very close, closer than you might think by looking at the final 3-1 result.

Thiem very efficient when points are critical

Against Rafa Nadal Thiem was also very effective on key points. Rafa had three more break point chances, and overall lost five more points in the 3-1. The Spaniard also had a better winner/unforced error ration. In the quarter-final it was three tiebreaks who delivered for Thiem, and it is evident that the Austrian has been able to perform on key points during those matches. 

You might think that having been able to take advantage of those key point is a positive but our research show that is just a symptom of variance. The performance on key points at one point will revert the other way, it is just a question of when not if. 

Djokovic has significantly better tournament data

The Serb has been the best player so far, and the stats also support this statement. He has won 4.5% more service points and around 4% more return points, and he has also been on the court for 61 fewer games. 

If you are looking for an upset, it would be very difficult to oppose those numbers. This is also reflected in the bookmaker’s price for the Serb, which is 2/9, and we do agree with him being so short. Thiem has done rather well against Djokovic in the past, having won four of their ten direct matches on tour, but if we do exclude the final set tiebreak win over Djokovic in November at the ATP Tour Finals, all those successes were on clay. 

When they played on outdoor hard court, Theim couldn’t do much at all against Djokovic, and we believe this is what is going to happen again on Sunday. We are going for Djokovic to win this final 3-0 and complete what has been a dominant performance at the Australian Open 2020. 

Today’s Verdict: Back Djokovic To Win 3-0 Vs Thiem

A £20 Bet On The Selection Above Returns:

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2020 Australian Open Women’s Betting | Saturday 01st, February 2020

08:30 – Sofia Kenin vs Garbine Muguruza Betting Tips: Overpriced Kenin is the value in his first Grand Slam final

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On Saturday the women’s singles final will take place between Sofia Kenin and Garbine Muguruza. This match is rather unexpected as not many predicted those two players to get this far at the Australian Open.

First Grand Slam final for Kenin

Sofia Kenin did impressively well at the Australian Open to reach the final, if you consider that she has never broken the top ten so far in her career. This will also be the first time that the 21-year-old American has made it to a final of a Grand Slam, as before he only got as far as the quarter-finals. Surely this is uncharted territory for her, and it would be good to see how she handles the pressure in the biggest match of her career. Having said that, she did very well in the semi-final and defeated home favourite Ashleigh Barty, so the chances that she will struggle under pressure is pretty limited on Saturday.

Odds on the final looks questionable

Bookmakers clearly have a different opinion as Muguruza is the 4/7 favourite to win, while Kenin is the underdog at 7/5. Looking at the data, this makes little sense.

If we take a look at hard court data over the last 12 months, Kenin has a better hold percentage (5.5%). Kenin is the better server and Muguruza have an advantage on return, but overall there is a pretty slim difference between the two that does not justify the significant difference in price.

If we look at the last six months, Kenin has a bigger edge on serve while a smaller disadvantage on return. So the data is telling us that she is improving. If we look at the numbers of this tournament, the two players have performed very similarly, and there isn’t a massive difference in games played and accumulated fatigue. In fact, Kenin has dropped one set fewer.

Odds are almost the reverse of what they were in Beijing

So there isn’t a massive difference between those two finalists to suggest such a gap in the price. Those two have also met in Beijing towards the end of last season in what was the only match of their career. The price at that time was virtually reversed with Kenin that was the 1/2 favourite. So, all things considered, Kenin is the value here. The only risk is that she might freeze on the big stage, but the value is here.

Today’s Verdict: Back Sofia Kenin To Win

A £20 Bet On The Selection Above Returns:

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2020 Australian Open Men’s Betting: Outright Betting Tips

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The Australian Open has been dominated, like for the most Men’s Grand Slam’s tournament, by the big four in the last decade. The first edition of the new decade will get underway on Monday 20th and looks set to be an intriguing tournament.

Novak Djokovic, who has helped Serbia winning the ATP Cup over Spain in the last weekend, will be hoping to start the new year with the eight-title in Melbourne.

Rafael Nadal, will be bidding to win Down Under for the second time. If the Spaniard is successful, he will level with Roger Federer (20) in the all-time Grand Slam list. But, there are some dark horses in the men’s draw that could well turn things around, and that might be extremely valuable when it comes to betting on the Australian Open.

Top Betting Offers To Take Advantage Of In The Australian Open

Consistent Agut

Roberto Agut is one of the most consistent players in the ATP Tour and is coming after having won all five of his ties in the ATP Cup. The Spaniard has powerful backhand and forehand and normally five his opponent very little to settle. He is now inside the world’s top 10 and having reached the semi-finals at Wimbledon last year, surely has the necessary experience to deal with the pressure of a Grand Slam.

The 31 years old has had very difficult time personally last year as he lost his father but has worked very hard to improve his game. Agut went as far as the quarter-finals of the Australian Open 2019 and was defeated by upcoming Stefanos Tsitsipas. He loves playing on a hard court and can build up points well. Agut, who can be backed at 66/1 to win the Australian Open at the time of writing, can go all the way, subject to having a draw that works for him.

Young And Ready De Minaur

There are many fearless young stars that are coming up in the ATP Tour, and one of those is surely Alex De Minaur. Even if he is thin and wiry, he has a vibrant style and gets excellent depth with his slides backhand. It is a very difficult player to face, and many see similarities with Lleyton Hewitt in the way he stays on the court. He chases down every ball similarly to his fellow countryman used to do.

Even if he was defeated by Jannik Sinner in the Next Gen Finals last year, he has won three titles already, including one in Sydney. Last year he reached the third round at the Australian Open but lost to Nadal. De Minaur surely cannot be underestimated, also because he is playing at home and looks valuable at 40/1 to go all the way in Melbourne.

Italian ace Berrettini

It has been a sensational 2019 for Matteo Berrettini who managed to make his debut at the ATP Finals at London’s O2 Arena as a cherry over the cake. The italian rising star has reached the semi-finals of the US Open and with a serve of around 142mps can cause problems to anyone. He also has a ferocious forehand and uses a strategy similar to his idol Federer.

When it comes to Grand Slam, he has reached the fourth round at Wimbledon in 2019 and also the semi-final at the US Open when Nadal defeated him. Berrettini’s game is perfect for the Australian Open and last year he delivered in total 870 aces and won 86% of his service games. The Italian is surely a big underdog here at 50/1 but has the skills to spring a surprise.

First Verdict: Back Roberto Bautista-Agut to Win Australian Open

A £20 Bet On The Selection Above Returns:

BookieReturnBet Here
Screenshot 2019 09 05 at 11.16.22 - Australian Open Betting: Very Little Chance For Thiem To Cause An Upset In The Australian Open Men's Final£670Screenshot 2019 12 11 at 17.40.10 - Australian Open Betting: Very Little Chance For Thiem To Cause An Upset In The Australian Open Men's Final
BookieReturnBet Here
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2020 Australian Open Women Betting: Outright Betting Tips

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There are lot of expectations for the first Grand Slam of the new decade. The women’s draw should be an open affair with the likes of Ash Barty, Serena Williams and Bianca Andreescu that are all tipped to do well ‘down-under’. But who will get the trophy in Melbourne?

Time for Serena to end her Slam drought?

Serena Williams has been dominating women’s tennis for more than a decade. But the main question is: will she be able to claim her 24th Grand Slam title? The American ace has been stuck on 23 for the last three years since winning her last Slam at the Australian Open back in 2017. It is worth remembering that she did that when she was two months pregnant with her daughter Alexis Olympia. 

Williams is keen to equal Margaret Court’s record of 24 Slams. She has a fantastic power capable of blowing away her opponents, and perhaps the most surprising thing is that she has lost her last four Grand Slam finals without being able to win a single set. She is currently the 11/2 favourite to triumph in Melbourne. She has the record for most titles won by a woman in Melbourne (seven) and surely the surface is more suitable to her game than the US Open. 

Can Andreescu follow up her Flushing Meadows triumph?

Bianca Andreescu has been fantastic in the last season. The Canadian has improved massively, and in addition to winning titles at Indian Wells Masters and the Canadian Open, she has also secured her first Grand Slam at the US Open in September. As a result, she has reached the career-high rankings of four. 

Andreescu is only 19 and has great perspective with many that are tipping her as the future world number one. On the court, she is a warrior and can be able to mix up from the baseline and still have soft hands at the net. With her versatility, is a difficult client for anyone. One of the main reasons she has exploded on the WTA Tour is that she has built up her fitness. At the moment she can be backed at 7/1 and surely one to keep your eyes on in Melbourne. 

Barty To Shine In Melbourne?

It has been a fantastic 2019 for Ash Barty. After winning her first Grand Slam at the French Open, she has got right to the top of the WTA ranking and ended the year with a win at the WTA Finals. The Australian is heading for the ‘home’ Grand Slam with fantastic momentum. So far her best result at the Australian Open has been a quarter-final appearance and, on the back of the last year’s results, she will be determined to do much better this time. At the moment, she is 8/1 to go all the way Down Under. It will be interesting to see how she cope with the pressure of playing at home. Australia hasn’t had a homegrown Open champion since 1978 (Chris O’Neill) so all eyes will be on her. 

Is Pliskova capable of going a step further?

Karolina Pliskova is one of the most dangerous players on the circuit and has ended the last season with a 52-17 record. The Czech has a great serve and has been able to reach two Grand Slam semi-finals. Last year, she won 4 WTA titles, and she will be focused to start the new campaign in the best possible way. 

If you are looking for a slight outsider, she could fit the bill at 12/1. A lot will depend on how the draw will be for the world number two. She will be keen to get revenge against Barty who has defeated her in three sets in the semi-finals of the recent WTA Finals. 

First Verdict: Back Ash Barty to Win Australian Open

A £20 Bet On The Selection Above Returns:

BookieReturnBet Here
Screenshot 2019 09 05 at 11.16.22 - Australian Open Betting: Very Little Chance For Thiem To Cause An Upset In The Australian Open Men's Final£180Screenshot 2019 12 11 at 17.40.10 - Australian Open Betting: Very Little Chance For Thiem To Cause An Upset In The Australian Open Men's Final
BookieReturnBet Here
Screenshot 2019 09 05 at 11.17.01 - Australian Open Betting: Very Little Chance For Thiem To Cause An Upset In The Australian Open Men's Final£175Screenshot 2019 12 11 at 17.40.10 - Australian Open Betting: Very Little Chance For Thiem To Cause An Upset In The Australian Open Men's Final
BookieReturnBet Here
Screenshot 2019 09 05 at 11.59.42 - Australian Open Betting: Very Little Chance For Thiem To Cause An Upset In The Australian Open Men's Final£177Screenshot 2019 12 11 at 17.40.10 - Australian Open Betting: Very Little Chance For Thiem To Cause An Upset In The Australian Open Men's Final

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